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For those wondering about what was/is Russian strategy: yesterday on a bunch of Russian media sites got auto-published and then deleted article that based on it

by tguvot 5y ago

For those wondering about what was/is Russian strategy: yesterday on a bunch of Russian media sites got auto-published and then deleted article that based on it's content was supposed to go to air as a victory lap after completion of mission: unification of Russia (Russia, Ukraine and Belarus) and solution of Ukranian question (partial translation): https://twitter.com/christogrozev/status/1498029060085075969 https://twitter.com/christogrozev/status/1498029060085075969 . This is original https://web.archive.org/web/20220226051154/https://ria.ru/20220226/rossiya-1775162336.html https://web.archive.org/web/20220226051154/https://ria.ru/20... It does look that assumption was just to march in with no or little resistance, take over entire country in 2 days as then manage area with rosgvardia. On additional note, this book supposedly popular in upper echelons of Russia and written by somebody who considered to be guru of putin. wiki article has short summary, but it's enough to see how it reflects some of the current realities (in Ukraine, Georgia, UK, USA). Wiki artcile has a good summary https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Foundations_of_Geopolitics https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Foundations_of_Geopolitics

ZeroGravitas 5y ago
There was a really interesting article published here, auto-translated from Russian, written by a retired General before the invasion. He basically said, a bunch of idiots keep saying we can just walk into Ukraine with shock and awe and have it all over in hours (or less) and laid out why that is idiotic. Kind of amazing that the conversation was so public. https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=30489422 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=30489422
- tguvot 5y ago
  Everybody who works in big company knows how much information/details in whatever status report is getting lost by the time that it get's to C level and how much becomes beautified. Now think about system where this chain is much longer and very kleptocratic. By the time reports get "up there" they show what they are expected to show and do not reflect reality.
officehero 5y ago
Really hope this is true because it probably reduces risk of more violence. If Putin was convinced to carry out the operation because some war hawks said it would be a cake walk, they will now be out of favor and the more sober and calculating Putin will realize this was all a big mistake and that further attacks will just make things worse.
- tguvot 5y ago
  Putin went bananas. He now digs in, because other wise it will show that he is weak. Also there are news that after couple of years in covid isolation he "changed". The only one who can interact with him directly are his bodyguards. Yesterday on news segment when he was ordering to bring nuclear forces to readiness, minister of defence and chief general or whatever were sitting at least 10m away from him
- pbourke 5y ago
  A “sober and calculating” person would never have entered into this conflict. Putin seems to have an almost-religious perception of this situation. He views Ukraine as part of a “greater Russia”, and the post-Soviet reorganization that put Ukraine on a vector away from Russian influence as a great historical humiliation. His comments about there being no point to a world without Russia in it (from 2018) and about the Russia/Ukraine split as an accident of history rather than a fact to be recognized (from last summer) are deeply disturbing. Russia seems to be relatively weak in all dimensions but two: the ability to indiscriminately level a city and nuclear weapons. Perilous times.

by tguvot 5y ago

ZeroGravitas 5y ago

There was a really interesting article published here, auto-translated from Russian, written by a retired General before the invasion. He basically said, a bunch of idiots keep saying we can just walk into Ukraine with shock and awe and have it all over in hours (or less) and laid out why that is idiotic. Kind of amazing that the conversation was so public. https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=30489422 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=30489422

tguvot 5y ago
Everybody who works in big company knows how much information/details in whatever status report is getting lost by the time that it get's to C level and how much becomes beautified. Now think about system where this chain is much longer and very kleptocratic. By the time reports get "up there" they show what they are expected to show and do not reflect reality.

officehero 5y ago

Really hope this is true because it probably reduces risk of more violence. If Putin was convinced to carry out the operation because some war hawks said it would be a cake walk, they will now be out of favor and the more sober and calculating Putin will realize this was all a big mistake and that further attacks will just make things worse.

tguvot 5y ago
Putin went bananas. He now digs in, because other wise it will show that he is weak. Also there are news that after couple of years in covid isolation he "changed". The only one who can interact with him directly are his bodyguards. Yesterday on news segment when he was ordering to bring nuclear forces to readiness, minister of defence and chief general or whatever were sitting at least 10m away from him
pbourke 5y ago
A “sober and calculating” person would never have entered into this conflict. Putin seems to have an almost-religious perception of this situation. He views Ukraine as part of a “greater Russia”, and the post-Soviet reorganization that put Ukraine on a vector away from Russian influence as a great historical humiliation. His comments about there being no point to a world without Russia in it (from 2018) and about the Russia/Ukraine split as an accident of history rather than a fact to be recognized (from last summer) are deeply disturbing. Russia seems to be relatively weak in all dimensions but two: the ability to indiscriminately level a city and nuclear weapons. Perilous times.