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It might be the first movements towards a nuclear weapon being used —and I guess that's all that matters in some respects— but I don't think Putin has the abili
by oliwarner 5y ago
It might be the first movements towards a nuclear weapon being used —and I guess that's all that matters in some respects— but I don't think Putin has the ability to take any EU or NATO member, and trying would be a quick suicide.
It's hard to get an unbiased viewpoint but it seems like Putin has few allies at home, let alone abroad. The West wouldn't forgive China and they can't afford to lose the support of their shiny new middle class. Belarus can barely suppress its own population. Iran and North Korea aren't mobile armies capable of moving any further than their neighbours and I'm not sure they'd want to die on this hill for their weapons supplier.
So I guess, maybe, but the way things are going, a coup seems more likely.
But having Armageddon plans isn't bad. Many components will be transferrable concepts for severe weather events, which do seem likely over our lifetime.
- oliwarner 5y agoAlthough... We're seeing serious financial ramifications for Russia here. The currency is worth nothing on the open market, its financial institutions have little ability to borrow externally, they can forcibly isolate themselves but any imports are only going to be available to Russians at massively inflated prices. The hyperinflation caused by defeat and reparations from WW1, and the propaganda over the next two decades were key motivating factors to get the German (and Italian, and Japanese) people to want to go to war with the rich empires that surrounded it. Eerily enough, we're almost exactly 100 years on from that point. History could repeat itself with America and the EU playing the parts of the British and French empires. I think supporting the people of Russia is going to be a critical part of the next decade's diplomacy. It's not their fault this dictator has power.