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Crippled Russia plays in to China`s cards as well. Russia is going to be at mercy of China if Putin stays in power after this war. Which is most likely unless t

by timeon 5y ago

Crippled Russia plays in to China`s cards as well. Russia is going to be at mercy of China if Putin stays in power after this war. Which is most likely unless there is massive revolution in Russia.

FooBarWidget 5y ago
A crippled Russia is not in China's interest. After the US and its allies are done destroying Russia, they will go after China next. One of the reasons why China and Russia are strategic partners is because they live in a world in which they need each other.
- cygx 5y ago
  After the US and its allies are done destroying Russia, they will go after China next. Doubtful, given the state of the global economy.
  - FooBarWidget 5y ago
    The US is already going after China. Russia merely distracted them — for now. There is even precedence for this. In the 1960s, the Pentagon proposed nuking 200+ million Chinese (1/3rd population) in case a nuclear war between US and USSR happened, just to prevent China from being a viable surviving society. And the only reason why they capped at 200+ million was because Chinese population was too dispersed so it would take too many nukes to kill more. Source: declassified document https://nsarchive.gwu.edu/briefing-book/nuclear-vault/2018-08-15/us-nuclear-war-plan-option-sought-destruction-china-soviet-union-viable-societies https://nsarchive.gwu.edu/briefing-book/nuclear-vault/2018-0...
    - smolder 5y ago
      Wargaming involves lots of proposals. I suppose it's a very good thing that one never got its chance at being carried out, and not just for China's sake.
    - cygx 5y ago
      In the 1960s, the Pentagon proposed nuking 200+ million Chinese And in the meantime, China became the United States' largest source of imported goods and 3rd largest export target (or 4th largest if you count the EU as a single block).
      - FooBarWidget 5y ago
        Yes after the normalization of diplomatic relations. But as you've noticed, these relations are increasingly being torn apart. War hawks are filling the ranks in US government. See e.g. AUKUS. There is no guarantee we wouldn't return to a time when Pentagon would seriously contemplate first-time-use nuking China.
- jacquesm 5y ago
  But that will take 30 years to play out. The Russian issue will be over long before that, one way or another.
0max 5y ago
Last I heard Khabarovsk's elected leader fell out of the Kremlins graces and his detention led to mass protest. Then add the pressure of all the sons coming back making it look like the Soviet incursion into Afghanistan, I think the ingredients are in the cupboard.
- trhway 5y ago
  It is worst than Afghanistan. Russian losses for 5 days are at the scale of a year in Afghanistan. And Russia doesn't even pick a lot of bodies. There is ton of videos of aftermath of various fights across the Ukraine with Russian bodies strewn around. Ukraine asked Red Cross to be a receiver of all those bodies. Russia isn't going for democratic revolution as people just aren't capable of it. Russia is kept together by the strong centralized power. Once that power gets critically wounded (like 30+ years ago USSR by Afghanistan) the regional, especially in the far from Moscow regions like the mentioned Khabarovsk, elites will try to split out to have their own autocratic dukedoms, and naturally becoming China's client states. China's support of that Russian war is a non-loosing bet - if Russia succeeded China would have gotten the agreed upon Russian support of the Taiwan takeover, and if Russia loses, especially catastrophically like it looks now, it gets very weak and sky is the limits for China's actions in that scenario.
rob74 5y ago
It doesn't have to be a massive revolution, a "palace revolt" (or some combination thereof) would also do - not sure how likely it is, but I was in Romania when Ceausescu was toppled, and his regime also didn't look like it would be possible to end it in a week (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Romanian_Revolution https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Romanian_Revolution). Ok, there were up to 1300 victims (estimates vary), and it was the only one of the regime changes in Eastern Europe in 1989 that actually led to violence, but compared to what we are seeing in other countries around the world, Romania still got off relatively easy...

by timeon 5y ago

Crippled Russia plays in to China`s cards as well. Russia is going to be at mercy of China if Putin stays in power after this war. Which is most likely unless there is massive revolution in Russia.

FooBarWidget 5y ago

A crippled Russia is not in China's interest. After the US and its allies are done destroying Russia, they will go after China next. One of the reasons why China and Russia are strategic partners is because they live in a world in which they need each other.

cygx 5y ago
After the US and its allies are done destroying Russia, they will go after China next. Doubtful, given the state of the global economy.
- FooBarWidget 5y ago
  The US is already going after China. Russia merely distracted them — for now. There is even precedence for this. In the 1960s, the Pentagon proposed nuking 200+ million Chinese (1/3rd population) in case a nuclear war between US and USSR happened, just to prevent China from being a viable surviving society. And the only reason why they capped at 200+ million was because Chinese population was too dispersed so it would take too many nukes to kill more. Source: declassified document https://nsarchive.gwu.edu/briefing-book/nuclear-vault/2018-08-15/us-nuclear-war-plan-option-sought-destruction-china-soviet-union-viable-societies https://nsarchive.gwu.edu/briefing-book/nuclear-vault/2018-0...
  - smolder 5y ago
    Wargaming involves lots of proposals. I suppose it's a very good thing that one never got its chance at being carried out, and not just for China's sake.
  - cygx 5y ago
    In the 1960s, the Pentagon proposed nuking 200+ million Chinese And in the meantime, China became the United States' largest source of imported goods and 3rd largest export target (or 4th largest if you count the EU as a single block).
    - FooBarWidget 5y ago
      Yes after the normalization of diplomatic relations. But as you've noticed, these relations are increasingly being torn apart. War hawks are filling the ranks in US government. See e.g. AUKUS. There is no guarantee we wouldn't return to a time when Pentagon would seriously contemplate first-time-use nuking China.
jacquesm 5y ago
But that will take 30 years to play out. The Russian issue will be over long before that, one way or another.

0max 5y ago

Last I heard Khabarovsk's elected leader fell out of the Kremlins graces and his detention led to mass protest. Then add the pressure of all the sons coming back making it look like the Soviet incursion into Afghanistan, I think the ingredients are in the cupboard.

trhway 5y ago
It is worst than Afghanistan. Russian losses for 5 days are at the scale of a year in Afghanistan. And Russia doesn't even pick a lot of bodies. There is ton of videos of aftermath of various fights across the Ukraine with Russian bodies strewn around. Ukraine asked Red Cross to be a receiver of all those bodies. Russia isn't going for democratic revolution as people just aren't capable of it. Russia is kept together by the strong centralized power. Once that power gets critically wounded (like 30+ years ago USSR by Afghanistan) the regional, especially in the far from Moscow regions like the mentioned Khabarovsk, elites will try to split out to have their own autocratic dukedoms, and naturally becoming China's client states. China's support of that Russian war is a non-loosing bet - if Russia succeeded China would have gotten the agreed upon Russian support of the Taiwan takeover, and if Russia loses, especially catastrophically like it looks now, it gets very weak and sky is the limits for China's actions in that scenario.

rob74 5y ago

It doesn't have to be a massive revolution, a "palace revolt" (or some combination thereof) would also do - not sure how likely it is, but I was in Romania when Ceausescu was toppled, and his regime also didn't look like it would be possible to end it in a week (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Romanian_Revolution https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Romanian_Revolution). Ok, there were up to 1300 victims (estimates vary), and it was the only one of the regime changes in Eastern Europe in 1989 that actually led to violence, but compared to what we are seeing in other countries around the world, Romania still got off relatively easy...