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> Putin is trying to go all-in with his last few chips. [...] If he fails, he'll be out. Or he tries the nuclear option. I would not longer rule that out. He h

> Putin is trying to go all-in with his last few chips. [...] If he fails, he'll be out. Or he tries the nuclear option. I would not longer rule that out. He has already lost the first round.

Sebb767 5y ago
Honestly, my hope is that none of the Oligarchs or the Russians at the trigger want to see the world in a fiery end. One thing that might be tricky is if he deploys tactical nukes, though. They're small enough so that the other nuclear powers won't go for all-out annihilation (probably), but still a step towards further escalation.
- BurningFrog 5y ago
  The oligarchs have no power anymore. It's all Putin.
  - usr1106 5y ago
    I have no deeper understanding about Putin's inner cycle. According a detailed news article yesterday there are only 2 oligarchs left there. He prefers people with way less money these days because they are easier to control. Most oligarchs are completely silent on politics, some are even in prison for corruption. Which of course is not difficult to accuse anybody rich or powerful in Russia. They probably don't have to dream up the evidence like in other cases of political (in)justice.
  - singularity2001 5y ago
    If they have money they have power
    - usr1106 5y ago
      If Putin is against you, no money on the planet helps. He will have you killed in England. It would require many oligarchs to form a conspiracy and remove him and several others from power. I have no insight, but my feeling is not enough people trust each other to do it. One leak or the slightest mistake and they are all dead.
      - pixl97 5y ago
        This only works if they aren't going to die in nuclear fires. Once this gets to the point enough think that crazy Ivan is going to really kick off a global thermonuclear war his own protection fails.
      - rasz 5y ago
        No one has tried retaliating yet. Set up a $100M 'assassinate Putin' fund and watch the fun.
    - BurningFrog 5y ago
      Mikhail Khodorkovsky was the richest oligarch in Russia. He criticised Putin in 2003 and spent the next 10 years in prison. The other oligarchs learned the lesson. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mikhail_Khodorkovsky https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mikhail_Khodorkovsky
a1445c8b 5y ago
Agreed. It’s like cornering a bear: at some point it won’t care if it dies, it will just attack with whatever means available.
landemva 5y ago
Specifically, what do you mean by 'lost the first round'?
- usr1106 5y ago
  He wanted to destroy the military of the Ukraine within hours. He claimed until yesterday that no Russians will be killed because it's a limited operation, not a war. He certainly expected some symbolic sanctions, but not the massive consequences Russia is facing now. He expected vast support from the Russian public (90% when occupying Crimea 6 years ago). None of those have happened. At the moment he looks like a loser. However, I am not convinced he will just give up like this. He will continue the war. And once he has nothing to lose, danger is that he uses the nuclear option. He has been sitting in a bunker (as Navalny expressed it) for 2 years in fear of the virus, meeting only very few people. It has made him lose contact with reality at least, if not even more severe mental consequences.
  - foverzar 5y ago
    > He has been sitting in a bunker (as Navalny expressed it) for 2 years in fear of the virus, meeting only very few people. Lmao, Navalny wouldn't miss a chance to say something ridiculous like that. Practically all world leaders had engaged in similar anti-COVID measures. And obviously there was no real bunker. I wonder what you base your assertions regarding Putin's expectations on? To me it looks like he only expected more support from people in Ukraine, but it's not that clear, as Russian government seems to have decided to skip the informational warfare part altogether.
    - usr1106 5y ago
      > Practically all world leaders had engaged in similar anti-COVID measures Most of them have been showing up in parliament many times a week, many wearing a mask. (Of course that depends a bit on the government model.) Some of them like Trump, Bolzonaro or Boris Johnson had Covid. Especially Trump grossly ignored scientific advice and had huge campaign events. Trump and Johnson had infamous garden parties. Not that I would call that smart, but that practically all leaders had similar measures is not true. It's said that especially oligarchs lost direct contact to Putin because he stopped meeting people. Whether that is true I can obviously not prove.

> Putin is trying to go all-in with his last few chips. [...] If he fails, he'll be out. Or he tries the nuclear option. I would not longer rule that out. He has already lost the first round.

Sebb767 5y ago

Honestly, my hope is that none of the Oligarchs or the Russians at the trigger want to see the world in a fiery end. One thing that might be tricky is if he deploys tactical nukes, though. They're small enough so that the other nuclear powers won't go for all-out annihilation (probably), but still a step towards further escalation.

BurningFrog 5y ago
The oligarchs have no power anymore. It's all Putin.
- usr1106 5y ago
  I have no deeper understanding about Putin's inner cycle. According a detailed news article yesterday there are only 2 oligarchs left there. He prefers people with way less money these days because they are easier to control. Most oligarchs are completely silent on politics, some are even in prison for corruption. Which of course is not difficult to accuse anybody rich or powerful in Russia. They probably don't have to dream up the evidence like in other cases of political (in)justice.
- singularity2001 5y ago
  If they have money they have power
  - usr1106 5y ago
    If Putin is against you, no money on the planet helps. He will have you killed in England. It would require many oligarchs to form a conspiracy and remove him and several others from power. I have no insight, but my feeling is not enough people trust each other to do it. One leak or the slightest mistake and they are all dead.
    - pixl97 5y ago
      This only works if they aren't going to die in nuclear fires. Once this gets to the point enough think that crazy Ivan is going to really kick off a global thermonuclear war his own protection fails.
    - rasz 5y ago
      No one has tried retaliating yet. Set up a $100M 'assassinate Putin' fund and watch the fun.
  - BurningFrog 5y ago
    Mikhail Khodorkovsky was the richest oligarch in Russia. He criticised Putin in 2003 and spent the next 10 years in prison. The other oligarchs learned the lesson. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mikhail_Khodorkovsky https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mikhail_Khodorkovsky

a1445c8b 5y ago

Agreed. It’s like cornering a bear: at some point it won’t care if it dies, it will just attack with whatever means available.

landemva 5y ago

Specifically, what do you mean by 'lost the first round'?

usr1106 5y ago
He wanted to destroy the military of the Ukraine within hours. He claimed until yesterday that no Russians will be killed because it's a limited operation, not a war. He certainly expected some symbolic sanctions, but not the massive consequences Russia is facing now. He expected vast support from the Russian public (90% when occupying Crimea 6 years ago). None of those have happened. At the moment he looks like a loser. However, I am not convinced he will just give up like this. He will continue the war. And once he has nothing to lose, danger is that he uses the nuclear option. He has been sitting in a bunker (as Navalny expressed it) for 2 years in fear of the virus, meeting only very few people. It has made him lose contact with reality at least, if not even more severe mental consequences.
- foverzar 5y ago
  > He has been sitting in a bunker (as Navalny expressed it) for 2 years in fear of the virus, meeting only very few people. Lmao, Navalny wouldn't miss a chance to say something ridiculous like that. Practically all world leaders had engaged in similar anti-COVID measures. And obviously there was no real bunker. I wonder what you base your assertions regarding Putin's expectations on? To me it looks like he only expected more support from people in Ukraine, but it's not that clear, as Russian government seems to have decided to skip the informational warfare part altogether.
  - usr1106 5y ago
    > Practically all world leaders had engaged in similar anti-COVID measures Most of them have been showing up in parliament many times a week, many wearing a mask. (Of course that depends a bit on the government model.) Some of them like Trump, Bolzonaro or Boris Johnson had Covid. Especially Trump grossly ignored scientific advice and had huge campaign events. Trump and Johnson had infamous garden parties. Not that I would call that smart, but that practically all leaders had similar measures is not true. It's said that especially oligarchs lost direct contact to Putin because he stopped meeting people. Whether that is true I can obviously not prove.