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full disclosure im 100% sucked into the news cycle. That said I think the new development of belarus passing a referendum, updating its constitution to allow R

by jayski 5y ago

full disclosure im 100% sucked into the news cycle. That said I think the new development of belarus passing a referendum, updating its constitution to allow Russian nukes, and also join the war against Ukraine is serious. Im not saying this is WW3, but I would feel better it Putin had just overtaken Ukraine quickly. Who knows what the reality is, but if youre following western media it seems like Russia is losing. This leaves Putin few options, 1. Continue conventional warfare and hope things get better, while sanctions bleed Russia out economically, and Ukraine receives more weapons and overall support. 2. Back out with his tail between his legs. This was supposed to be a show of force and military might, so it's going to be a tough pill to swallow for his ego. 3. make something up, like nato is supporting Ukraine too much and he has no choice but to use the nukes...

kypro 5y ago
What worries me is that there is a situation here where Russia benefits from launching nukes beyond just having no option / nothing to lose. If Russia nukes the West and China remains neutral avoiding an attack, then they would almost certainly take the US's place as the global superpower. Russia would obviously be nuked in retaliation, but Putin himself likely wouldn't die in the attack and could probably strike a deal with Xi to rebuild Russia and Russia's empire with China's aid. Obviously it wouldn't be good news for China if all their main trading partners suddenly got wiped of the face of the Earth, but they'd get through it after several years and would no longer need to worry about the West. My concern is what if nuclear war actually benefits Xi & Putin at this moment in time? During the cold war the USSR was a super power -- they had everything to lose. Now they have very little and we have a lot... The calculation is completely different today. The cost of nuclear war for Russia is dramatically lower than it ever was for the USSR.

by jayski 5y ago

kypro 5y ago

What worries me is that there is a situation here where Russia benefits from launching nukes beyond just having no option / nothing to lose. If Russia nukes the West and China remains neutral avoiding an attack, then they would almost certainly take the US's place as the global superpower. Russia would obviously be nuked in retaliation, but Putin himself likely wouldn't die in the attack and could probably strike a deal with Xi to rebuild Russia and Russia's empire with China's aid. Obviously it wouldn't be good news for China if all their main trading partners suddenly got wiped of the face of the Earth, but they'd get through it after several years and would no longer need to worry about the West. My concern is what if nuclear war actually benefits Xi & Putin at this moment in time? During the cold war the USSR was a super power -- they had everything to lose. Now they have very little and we have a lot... The calculation is completely different today. The cost of nuclear war for Russia is dramatically lower than it ever was for the USSR.