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Conversely... Does it matter? The US couldn't hold Afghanistan or Iraq. The USSR couldn't hold Afghanistan. What even is a "win" in Ukraine? It's inheriting 44

by XorNot 5y ago

Conversely... Does it matter? The US couldn't hold Afghanistan or Iraq. The USSR couldn't hold Afghanistan. What even is a "win" in Ukraine? It's inheriting 44 million armed insurgents and an unpopular occupation with your own people.

antognini 5y ago
I think [0] Putin vastly miscalculated public sentiment in Ukraine. His attack was based on the premise that Ukraine's government is essentially a puppet state of the west with little popular support in the country. This is been how the Russain state has been telling the story since 2014. He probably expected this to go like the Taliban's expulsion of the US from Afghanistan in 2021. Most of the people would support, or at least not be too bothered by it, the government would flee, and the few government supporters would have no will to fight. Then he could install a sympathetic government as there is in Belarus. But obviously, popular support for the Ukrainian state turned out to be much, much higher than Putin thought. As they say, don't get high on your own (propaganda) supply. [0]: With the obvious caveat that I'm just a random person on the internet with no special information.
dukeofdoom 5y ago
The Iraq war was way more costly in terms of lives lost. Despite killing so many people the US still couldn't hold it. Iraq study estimates war-related deaths at 461,000 https://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-24547256 https://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-24547256
- chrononaut 5y ago
  Can you elaborate on "couldn't hold it" in the context of the Iraq war? It makes sense with Afghanistan due to the Taliban filling the void, but doesn't Iraq have roughly the same government and stability that it had when the US left / withdrew?
  - dukeofdoom 5y ago
    "In January 2020, during massive protests[3] and following an escalation of tensions between the United States and Iran, the Iraqi Council of Representatives passed a non-binding measure to "expel all foreign troops from their country," including American and Iranian troops. " https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Withdrawal_of_United_States_troops_from_Iraq_(2020%E2%80%932021) https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Withdrawal_of_United_States_tr...

by XorNot 5y ago

antognini 5y ago

I think [0] Putin vastly miscalculated public sentiment in Ukraine. His attack was based on the premise that Ukraine's government is essentially a puppet state of the west with little popular support in the country. This is been how the Russain state has been telling the story since 2014. He probably expected this to go like the Taliban's expulsion of the US from Afghanistan in 2021. Most of the people would support, or at least not be too bothered by it, the government would flee, and the few government supporters would have no will to fight. Then he could install a sympathetic government as there is in Belarus. But obviously, popular support for the Ukrainian state turned out to be much, much higher than Putin thought. As they say, don't get high on your own (propaganda) supply. [0]: With the obvious caveat that I'm just a random person on the internet with no special information.

dukeofdoom 5y ago

The Iraq war was way more costly in terms of lives lost. Despite killing so many people the US still couldn't hold it. Iraq study estimates war-related deaths at 461,000 https://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-24547256 https://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-24547256

chrononaut 5y ago
Can you elaborate on "couldn't hold it" in the context of the Iraq war? It makes sense with Afghanistan due to the Taliban filling the void, but doesn't Iraq have roughly the same government and stability that it had when the US left / withdrew?
- dukeofdoom 5y ago
  "In January 2020, during massive protests[3] and following an escalation of tensions between the United States and Iran, the Iraqi Council of Representatives passed a non-binding measure to "expel all foreign troops from their country," including American and Iranian troops. " https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Withdrawal_of_United_States_troops_from_Iraq_(2020%E2%80%932021) https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Withdrawal_of_United_States_tr...