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The corner Russia is being pushed in looks incredibly dangerous. I agree with this tweet: https://twitter.com/PaulSonne/status/1498075412194332673?t=y4OeudQJu7

The corner Russia is being pushed in looks incredibly dangerous. I agree with this tweet: https://twitter.com/PaulSonne/status/1498075412194332673?t=y4OeudQJu7OE50JlnIRjsA&s=19 https://twitter.com/PaulSonne/status/1498075412194332673?t=y... The consequences of this could severely go out of hand and the chance of nuclear encounter is non-zero at this point.

chasd00 5y ago
Nukes will launch before the Putin regime falls. The world needs to punish Russia but not back it into an existential crisis.
- RealityVoid 5y ago
  That's the scarry thing. What if these thing are already out of control and we pushed the pieces that makes the whole domino chain fail. We wouldn't see it until it's too late. Jesus, this is scary.
  - jrs235 5y ago
    I hope and pray that Russia's nuclear arsenal and delivery systems aren't as operational as everyone, including Putin thinks. I'm hoping the yes men and corruption has led to a system that isn't able to actually launch or detonate anymore. I know it's a stretch, but I'll continue to hope it's so.
prewett 5y ago
The chance of a nuclear encounter is always non-zero. There could always be someone who instead of shooting up a school or church decides to shoot up the world. Or someone sell a nuke to terrorist. If you want to talk probabilities, well, what is the new probability? The answer is that no one has any clue how to even evaluate the probability. And what if the worst happens: Putin says "I'm going to nuke somebody unless you give me Ukraine"? Or he feels like he's losing and just unilaterally decides to take the world down with him? You can't really do anything about those scenarios, so you pretty much have to just assume he won't do that and act accordingly and try not to push him into a scenario where that looks like a good option.
fbnOiW 5y ago
This is all not new. From the 2014 Crimea annexation: https://thediplomat.com/2014/07/russia-threatens-nuclear-strikes-over-crimea/ https://thediplomat.com/2014/07/russia-threatens-nuclear-str... https://www.reuters.com/article/ukraine-crisis-russia-kiselyov-idUSL6N0MD0P920140316 https://www.reuters.com/article/ukraine-crisis-russia-kisely... Rumors about "Putin has gone insane" also don't help. The man is just continuing his plan from 2014 and earlier now that the U.S. has an indecisive and weak president.
woodruffw 5y ago
The entire point of MAD is that the chance of nuclear encounter is always nonzero: if you know with absolute certainty that the other powers will never use their nuclear weapons, then you might as well treat them as not possessing them. I agree that the consequences of this will be dire, but I haven't seen any real evidence yet that they'll be "nuclear exchange" levels of dire. It's more likely that Russia will use its substantial reserves to temporarily preserve the ruble. When that eventually collapses, everyday Russians will begin denominating transactions in foreign currencies and the Russian government will go back to using gold the way the USSR did.

chasd00 5y ago

Nukes will launch before the Putin regime falls. The world needs to punish Russia but not back it into an existential crisis.

RealityVoid 5y ago
That's the scarry thing. What if these thing are already out of control and we pushed the pieces that makes the whole domino chain fail. We wouldn't see it until it's too late. Jesus, this is scary.
- jrs235 5y ago
  I hope and pray that Russia's nuclear arsenal and delivery systems aren't as operational as everyone, including Putin thinks. I'm hoping the yes men and corruption has led to a system that isn't able to actually launch or detonate anymore. I know it's a stretch, but I'll continue to hope it's so.

prewett 5y ago

The chance of a nuclear encounter is always non-zero. There could always be someone who instead of shooting up a school or church decides to shoot up the world. Or someone sell a nuke to terrorist. If you want to talk probabilities, well, what is the new probability? The answer is that no one has any clue how to even evaluate the probability. And what if the worst happens: Putin says "I'm going to nuke somebody unless you give me Ukraine"? Or he feels like he's losing and just unilaterally decides to take the world down with him? You can't really do anything about those scenarios, so you pretty much have to just assume he won't do that and act accordingly and try not to push him into a scenario where that looks like a good option.

fbnOiW 5y ago

This is all not new. From the 2014 Crimea annexation: https://thediplomat.com/2014/07/russia-threatens-nuclear-strikes-over-crimea/ https://thediplomat.com/2014/07/russia-threatens-nuclear-str... https://www.reuters.com/article/ukraine-crisis-russia-kiselyov-idUSL6N0MD0P920140316 https://www.reuters.com/article/ukraine-crisis-russia-kisely... Rumors about "Putin has gone insane" also don't help. The man is just continuing his plan from 2014 and earlier now that the U.S. has an indecisive and weak president.

woodruffw 5y ago

The entire point of MAD is that the chance of nuclear encounter is always nonzero: if you know with absolute certainty that the other powers will never use their nuclear weapons, then you might as well treat them as not possessing them. I agree that the consequences of this will be dire, but I haven't seen any real evidence yet that they'll be "nuclear exchange" levels of dire. It's more likely that Russia will use its substantial reserves to temporarily preserve the ruble. When that eventually collapses, everyday Russians will begin denominating transactions in foreign currencies and the Russian government will go back to using gold the way the USSR did.