The answer to your question is "yes", but I hope (and expect) that there is a lot happening that we don't know about. Note that, even if Putin achieves a quick

The answer to your question is "yes", but I hope (and expect) that there is a lot happening that we don't know about. Note that, even if Putin achieves a quick military victory in Ukraine and decides to keep the gas flowing (big "if"s), it could also get shut off by a prolonged guerilla war, if the gas is perceived as propping up Russian interests. Oil from Iraq and Libya had a hard time maintaining reliable supply while there's an insurgency going on. So it wouldn't even have to be Putin who decides to shut it off.