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Two weeks ago Ukraine accused the US of being unnecessarily pessimistic, that US analysis of satellite imagery was no match for Ukraine's deeper understanding o
by panarky 5y ago
Two weeks ago Ukraine accused the US of being unnecessarily pessimistic, that US analysis of satellite imagery was no match for Ukraine's deeper understanding of Russia's true motivations, that movements of troops and matériel were merely the adversary's negotiating style, that there was little likelihood of an actual invasion.
There's a tendency for smart people to downplay and underestimate legitimate existential threats. Most of us recognize the clear signs of war, of fascism, of catastrophe only in hindsight.
Perhaps the optimists can sketch out how they think this plays out if Ukraine puts up a more effective and tenacious defense than expected.
If supply lines are cut, if fuel, food and ammunition can't reach the front lines, if Russia is globally isolated, if the ruble collapses, if the wealth of oligarchs held abroad is frozen and seized.
Do the optimists believe Russia will just back down and go home in humiliation, tail between their legs?
- EVa5I7bHFq9mnYK 5y agoUkrainian President said that not because he didn't believe in Russia's invasion, but because he didn't want to provoke panic in his population, which would made war preparations more difficult. Even today he is trying to project calm and optimistic image, because it helps the war effort.
- panarky 5y ago> didn't want to provoke panic in his population Now he's calling for the West to shoot down Russian planes, and his government is handing out tens of thousands of Kalashnikov rifles to untrained bakers and school teachers. If he always believed Russia would invade, surely it would have been better to start a bit earlier with the no-fly zone and training school teachers with weapons and sabotage.
- EVa5I7bHFq9mnYK 5y ago1) Putin was looking for any pretext to attack. He told his people that this war is just a response to Ukraine's aggression (and most of Russian citizens believe that Russian army is protecting innocent children from being killed by Ukrainian Nazis). So Ukraine tried to avoid any aggressive step. 2) They are handling rifles out because they just now arrived from the multiple countries that are helping Ukraine. Before that, they trained with wooden rifles.