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I would normally agree about the news thing; like Taleb recently said [1], the news is 99.9% noise, 0.1% signal. But these past few days it's been all signal. T

I would normally agree about the news thing; like Taleb recently said [1], the news is 99.9% noise, 0.1% signal. But these past few days it's been all signal. This is the kind of stuff you should be paying attention to. [1] https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/1497943606962839552 https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/1497943606962839552

throwaway6532 5y ago
Exactly. I was flabbergasted at the sheer number of Ukranians I've seen interviewed by the media that said they didn't believe it would actually happen etc. I followed every development since it started at the end of last year and by the time it was announced that blood supplies had been moved in around a month before the invasion actually happened that led me to believe actually there really is likely to be an invasion as you wouldn't need blood otherwise. Then the next big, big clue was the soldiers sticking around in Belarus after the Olympics ended. That was your first major warning to get out. I can't quite remember the order in which the next few things happened exactly, but certainly when Putin announced he was recognizing Donetsk and Luhansk you could tell his plan was actively underway. The next big tip-off that the invasion was close was when China told its diplomats to leave. My assumption is that Russia would have given China a heads up to avoid surprising China and creating tensions. That would have been my signal to exit the country and my bags would have already been packed and plans firmly made. The next critical signal was that Russia itself told its diplomats to leave. There's only one reason Russia itself would tell its diplomats to leave. After I saw that news I thought to myself... hmm there isn't anything more Putin needs to do to actually be ready to invade, so next comes Z-day. Then they invaded. If you were paying close attention and could connect the dots you absolutely had ample warning to get the hell out of dodge. I agree, this is the type of news you should be paying attention to.
TameAntelope 5y ago
Taleb is the kind of person who tries very hard to have something insightful to say about every situation. Sometimes he nails it, sometimes he's off the mark. I don't read this and think, "He's right!" I just read this and think, "Looks like he fell into the media well and is trying to post-hoc justify it." Admittedly it's a safe bet on my part, because if I'm wrong, we'll all be dead!

throwaway6532 5y ago

Exactly. I was flabbergasted at the sheer number of Ukranians I've seen interviewed by the media that said they didn't believe it would actually happen etc. I followed every development since it started at the end of last year and by the time it was announced that blood supplies had been moved in around a month before the invasion actually happened that led me to believe actually there really is likely to be an invasion as you wouldn't need blood otherwise. Then the next big, big clue was the soldiers sticking around in Belarus after the Olympics ended. That was your first major warning to get out. I can't quite remember the order in which the next few things happened exactly, but certainly when Putin announced he was recognizing Donetsk and Luhansk you could tell his plan was actively underway. The next big tip-off that the invasion was close was when China told its diplomats to leave. My assumption is that Russia would have given China a heads up to avoid surprising China and creating tensions. That would have been my signal to exit the country and my bags would have already been packed and plans firmly made. The next critical signal was that Russia itself told its diplomats to leave. There's only one reason Russia itself would tell its diplomats to leave. After I saw that news I thought to myself... hmm there isn't anything more Putin needs to do to actually be ready to invade, so next comes Z-day. Then they invaded. If you were paying close attention and could connect the dots you absolutely had ample warning to get the hell out of dodge. I agree, this is the type of news you should be paying attention to.

TameAntelope 5y ago

Taleb is the kind of person who tries very hard to have something insightful to say about every situation. Sometimes he nails it, sometimes he's off the mark. I don't read this and think, "He's right!" I just read this and think, "Looks like he fell into the media well and is trying to post-hoc justify it." Admittedly it's a safe bet on my part, because if I'm wrong, we'll all be dead!