4 ms·

Did you read regular press, or professionals? As in military experts, intelligence, ... Because I've seen quite a few experts warn since at least December that

by 323 5y ago

Did you read regular press, or professionals? As in military experts, intelligence, ... Because I've seen quite a few experts warn since at least December that an invasion will happen. The main reason being the one you didn't list: 4. Putin hates democracy and fears that a successful democracy next to his door will trigger his fall. He also has an obsession that Ukraine is not a real country and that it's essentially a part of Russia.

jacquesm 5y ago
Precisely. The other reasons are simply buying into Russian propaganda.
hyperpallium2 5y ago
Ironically there's talk of the invasion triggering regime change. But... if he's going to lose everything, why not blow up the world?
hn_throwaway_99 5y ago
To be clear, I am not surprised the invasion took place, just like I wasn't surprised the invasion of Iraq took place, but that doesn't mean I don't think it's any less dumb. Taking in pieces: > Putin hates democracy and fears that a successful democracy next to his door will trigger his fall. That sounds ridiculously simplistic and caricature-esque. Besides, the Baltic states and Poland have been fairly successful democracies since the end of the Cold War, they all directly border Russia, and Putin hasn't done much about that for the past 20+ years. > He also has an obsession that Ukraine is not a real country and that it's essentially a part of Russia. Yes, I fully understand the history of Kyivan Rus and the shared Slavic history of Ukraine, Belarus and Russia. But again, "we all used to be the same people 800 years ago" seems like even more of a really stupid reason to invade. To put my argument in a different context, since the end of the WWII large powers have at least tried to put up a semblance of a noble argument when invading another country. In the US in Iraq in 2003, WMDs may have been bullshit, but it was at least proposed that "we are invading to defend ourselves". I don't even feel like Russia is trying very hard to make that argument - they're doing it a little with the false propaganda of genocide against Russian speakers in the east, but in general it's like Putin's not even trying to hide his "Tough shit, we're a bigger country that can take over a smaller country if we want to" rationale.
- etempleton 5y ago
  The largest threat to any autocrat is the success of a breakaway now-democratic state. Autocrats need their people to think that they are hopeless without them. Otherwise why allow them to have all of the power? The quality of life of many breakaway former soviet states has been rising rapidly and that makes Putin look bad. The same applies to China and Xi: Taiwan makes Xi look bad. The more successful Taiwan is the more Xi will feel he must gain control. However, Russia's failing here will give him pause. It is a good example of how to lose complete control.
  - candybar 5y ago
    Ukraine isn't one of the former soviet states that are doing well and making Putin look bad though. That would be the Baltic states (Estonia/Lithuania/Latvia). Ukraine has a substantially lower GDP per capita than Russia, whether you look at nominal or PPP.
    - etempleton 5y ago
      Estonia, Lithuania, and Lativia are all members of NATO making them untouchable. And each are too small geographically and from a GDP perspective to really be a threat. Ukraine has strategic positioning and natural resources to one day be a relatively large economy.

by 323 5y ago

jacquesm 5y ago

Precisely. The other reasons are simply buying into Russian propaganda.

hyperpallium2 5y ago

Ironically there's talk of the invasion triggering regime change. But... if he's going to lose everything, why not blow up the world?

hn_throwaway_99 5y ago

To be clear, I am not surprised the invasion took place, just like I wasn't surprised the invasion of Iraq took place, but that doesn't mean I don't think it's any less dumb. Taking in pieces: > Putin hates democracy and fears that a successful democracy next to his door will trigger his fall. That sounds ridiculously simplistic and caricature-esque. Besides, the Baltic states and Poland have been fairly successful democracies since the end of the Cold War, they all directly border Russia, and Putin hasn't done much about that for the past 20+ years. > He also has an obsession that Ukraine is not a real country and that it's essentially a part of Russia. Yes, I fully understand the history of Kyivan Rus and the shared Slavic history of Ukraine, Belarus and Russia. But again, "we all used to be the same people 800 years ago" seems like even more of a really stupid reason to invade. To put my argument in a different context, since the end of the WWII large powers have at least tried to put up a semblance of a noble argument when invading another country. In the US in Iraq in 2003, WMDs may have been bullshit, but it was at least proposed that "we are invading to defend ourselves". I don't even feel like Russia is trying very hard to make that argument - they're doing it a little with the false propaganda of genocide against Russian speakers in the east, but in general it's like Putin's not even trying to hide his "Tough shit, we're a bigger country that can take over a smaller country if we want to" rationale.

etempleton 5y ago
The largest threat to any autocrat is the success of a breakaway now-democratic state. Autocrats need their people to think that they are hopeless without them. Otherwise why allow them to have all of the power? The quality of life of many breakaway former soviet states has been rising rapidly and that makes Putin look bad. The same applies to China and Xi: Taiwan makes Xi look bad. The more successful Taiwan is the more Xi will feel he must gain control. However, Russia's failing here will give him pause. It is a good example of how to lose complete control.
- candybar 5y ago
  Ukraine isn't one of the former soviet states that are doing well and making Putin look bad though. That would be the Baltic states (Estonia/Lithuania/Latvia). Ukraine has a substantially lower GDP per capita than Russia, whether you look at nominal or PPP.
  - etempleton 5y ago
    Estonia, Lithuania, and Lativia are all members of NATO making them untouchable. And each are too small geographically and from a GDP perspective to really be a threat. Ukraine has strategic positioning and natural resources to one day be a relatively large economy.