4 ms·

I think one way out is for Putin to get scapegoated by his inner circle. He's only the dictator of Russia as long as they're happy.

andy_ppp 5y ago
I think you misunderstand how scared everyone around Putin is of him and the KGB. Especially the oligarchs - you think they give him 50% of their money because they really appreciate how nice and kind Putin is?
- JonChesterfield 5y ago
  I assume the working theory is that the KGB are not delighted with the present circumstances.
- xdennis 5y ago
  My understanding (from reading All the Kremlin's Men), is that Putin's strength is overstated in the West and that he rules with the approval of the oligarchs. If they turn on him, he might just die from an undiagnosed tumor.
  - thriftwy 5y ago
    They will turn on him to lose the war and pay through the nose, and then continue to suffer all the consequences in hopes that it ends eventually? It sounds like a semi-plausible option but a bad plan.
- livueta 5y ago
  On one hand you're right, but on the other - that sort of thing isn't exactly unprecedented. Everyone was terrified of Beria until they weren't. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lavrentiy_Beria#Arrest,_trial_and_execution https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lavrentiy_Beria#Arrest,_trial_...
- dragonwriter 5y ago
  > I think you misunderstand how scared everyone around Putin is of him and the KGB. I suspect more people around Putin are afraid of the FSB than the KGB.
  - ttyprintk 5y ago
    Patrushev, to be specific among the political attendants.
- teaearlgraycold 5y ago
  Why would anyone be loyal to Putin when they're not getting paid like they used to be? The ruble is already crashing and Russian markets open soon.
blunte 5y ago
I think it's the inner circle that will be his doom. He is costing them all a lot of money and options. What's the point of being an oligarch if you can't jetset around the world, owning high value properties and demonstrating your wealth? He has essentially made what he gave them worth much less. These wealthy people must have powerful connections that they can work with. It should be possible for them to organize some changes of office...
- noxer 5y ago
  Most of these wealthy people there are Jewish and according to Putin's propaganda Ukraine needs to be freed from Nazis. I'm sure most of these wealthy people support the war and probably knew in advance and protected most of their assets. The raw materials in Russia will still be raw materials in a few years. Its not like they will lose value in the log term because of this. Any kind of crisis only kills the small the big will be ready to buy up everything and make profit.

andy_ppp 5y ago

I think you misunderstand how scared everyone around Putin is of him and the KGB. Especially the oligarchs - you think they give him 50% of their money because they really appreciate how nice and kind Putin is?

JonChesterfield 5y ago
I assume the working theory is that the KGB are not delighted with the present circumstances.
xdennis 5y ago
My understanding (from reading All the Kremlin's Men), is that Putin's strength is overstated in the West and that he rules with the approval of the oligarchs. If they turn on him, he might just die from an undiagnosed tumor.
- thriftwy 5y ago
  They will turn on him to lose the war and pay through the nose, and then continue to suffer all the consequences in hopes that it ends eventually? It sounds like a semi-plausible option but a bad plan.
livueta 5y ago
On one hand you're right, but on the other - that sort of thing isn't exactly unprecedented. Everyone was terrified of Beria until they weren't. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lavrentiy_Beria#Arrest,_trial_and_execution https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lavrentiy_Beria#Arrest,_trial_...
dragonwriter 5y ago
> I think you misunderstand how scared everyone around Putin is of him and the KGB. I suspect more people around Putin are afraid of the FSB than the KGB.
- ttyprintk 5y ago
  Patrushev, to be specific among the political attendants.
teaearlgraycold 5y ago
Why would anyone be loyal to Putin when they're not getting paid like they used to be? The ruble is already crashing and Russian markets open soon.

blunte 5y ago

I think it's the inner circle that will be his doom. He is costing them all a lot of money and options. What's the point of being an oligarch if you can't jetset around the world, owning high value properties and demonstrating your wealth? He has essentially made what he gave them worth much less. These wealthy people must have powerful connections that they can work with. It should be possible for them to organize some changes of office...

noxer 5y ago
Most of these wealthy people there are Jewish and according to Putin's propaganda Ukraine needs to be freed from Nazis. I'm sure most of these wealthy people support the war and probably knew in advance and protected most of their assets. The raw materials in Russia will still be raw materials in a few years. Its not like they will lose value in the log term because of this. Any kind of crisis only kills the small the big will be ready to buy up everything and make profit.