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Also, while this conflict seems to be about Russia vs the west / NATO, other influencial parts of the world have absolutely no interest in a nuclear exchange.

by mongol 5y ago

Also, while this conflict seems to be about Russia vs the west / NATO, other influencial parts of the world have absolutely no interest in a nuclear exchange. China for example. What roles are they currently playing? Can they moderate Putin's temper? And Saudi Arabia? India? And so forth. He must have powerful allies that can bring him down from his own paranoia and delusions. Time for some geopolitical therapy sessions for him.

brundolf 5y ago
Yeah. To be honest I think the greatest risk to the rest of the world - if there is a risk - would be Putin acting irrationally (due to temper, or mental health, or desperation). I see no remotely rational course that could lead him to launch nukes or to move troops past Ukraine. As an aside, I'm really very glad this didn't happen a couple years ago when we had our own mad-man with the launch codes.
- jacquesm 5y ago
  He's been acting quite irrationally already in the recent past. > As an aside, I'm really very glad this didn't happen a couple years ago when we had our own mad-man with the launch codes. Weirdly enough: the risk of spillover would be lower, the danger to Ukraine much higher. But that is also why we are where we are today: without Trump undermining the whole situation in Ukraine would be quite different and Putin would not have embarked on this thing in the first place.
  - radford-neal 5y ago
    "without Trump undermining..." What are you talking about? There was the controversy about his talk with Zelenski of course, but the end result is described here: https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/trump-admin-approves-sale-anti-tank-weapons-ukraine/story?id=65989898 https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/trump-admin-approves-sale-an... And delay in sending weapons to Ukraine is not unknown for the Biden administration: https://www.politico.com/news/2021/06/18/white-house-ukraine-military-lethal-weapons-495169 https://www.politico.com/news/2021/06/18/white-house-ukraine... So maybe your point is that sending weapons to Ukraine was a bad idea that just annoyed Putin, and that's why it's Trump's fault? Looking at broader economic issues, how could you possibly think that Trump's support for energy development in the West helped Russia, which relies on high oil prices to support its economy, as compared to Biden's shutting down of energy development?
    - cyberge99 5y ago
      Trump emboldened Putin by increasing US dependence on foreign oil. Privately met with him, without record or press. In 2017, the first Congressional Delegation to Russia (all Republicans) had a private meeting with Putin on July 4th - Independence Day! Trump recently praised Putin and called his tactic “genius” and just today Tom Cotton(R) refused to denounce Trumps support of Putin. Ad nausem… Trumps indirect support of Putin and Kim Jong Un was also particularly unnerving.
      - radford-neal 5y ago
        "Trump emboldened Putin by increasing US dependence on foreign oil." This statement seems detached from reality, unless by "foreign" you mean "Canadian".
- ethbr0 5y ago
  It has precedent with Nixon: https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Madman_theory https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Madman_theory If the opposite side believes you completely rational, it limits the actions they believe you'll take. On the other hand, if they believe you're impulsive, there are fewer limits on what they believe you'd do. ... Unfortunately, if they believe you're too irrational, it ends badly.
- mongol 5y ago
  > As an aside, I'm really very glad this didn't happen a couple years ago when we had our own mad-man with the launch codes Completely agree. It would have been a nightmare.

by mongol 5y ago

brundolf 5y ago

Yeah. To be honest I think the greatest risk to the rest of the world - if there is a risk - would be Putin acting irrationally (due to temper, or mental health, or desperation). I see no remotely rational course that could lead him to launch nukes or to move troops past Ukraine. As an aside, I'm really very glad this didn't happen a couple years ago when we had our own mad-man with the launch codes.

jacquesm 5y ago
He's been acting quite irrationally already in the recent past. > As an aside, I'm really very glad this didn't happen a couple years ago when we had our own mad-man with the launch codes. Weirdly enough: the risk of spillover would be lower, the danger to Ukraine much higher. But that is also why we are where we are today: without Trump undermining the whole situation in Ukraine would be quite different and Putin would not have embarked on this thing in the first place.
- radford-neal 5y ago
  "without Trump undermining..." What are you talking about? There was the controversy about his talk with Zelenski of course, but the end result is described here: https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/trump-admin-approves-sale-anti-tank-weapons-ukraine/story?id=65989898 https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/trump-admin-approves-sale-an... And delay in sending weapons to Ukraine is not unknown for the Biden administration: https://www.politico.com/news/2021/06/18/white-house-ukraine-military-lethal-weapons-495169 https://www.politico.com/news/2021/06/18/white-house-ukraine... So maybe your point is that sending weapons to Ukraine was a bad idea that just annoyed Putin, and that's why it's Trump's fault? Looking at broader economic issues, how could you possibly think that Trump's support for energy development in the West helped Russia, which relies on high oil prices to support its economy, as compared to Biden's shutting down of energy development?
  - cyberge99 5y ago
    Trump emboldened Putin by increasing US dependence on foreign oil. Privately met with him, without record or press. In 2017, the first Congressional Delegation to Russia (all Republicans) had a private meeting with Putin on July 4th - Independence Day! Trump recently praised Putin and called his tactic “genius” and just today Tom Cotton(R) refused to denounce Trumps support of Putin. Ad nausem… Trumps indirect support of Putin and Kim Jong Un was also particularly unnerving.
    - radford-neal 5y ago
      "Trump emboldened Putin by increasing US dependence on foreign oil." This statement seems detached from reality, unless by "foreign" you mean "Canadian".
ethbr0 5y ago
It has precedent with Nixon: https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Madman_theory https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Madman_theory If the opposite side believes you completely rational, it limits the actions they believe you'll take. On the other hand, if they believe you're impulsive, there are fewer limits on what they believe you'd do. ... Unfortunately, if they believe you're too irrational, it ends badly.
mongol 5y ago
> As an aside, I'm really very glad this didn't happen a couple years ago when we had our own mad-man with the launch codes Completely agree. It would have been a nightmare.