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Ukraine is fighting with the open support of pretty much every advanced military in the developed world. They've got armed drones from Turkey, Javelins from th

Ukraine is fighting with the open support of pretty much every advanced military in the developed world. They've got armed drones from Turkey, Javelins from the US/UK, the freaking EU of all organizations is saying they'll send them fighter jets. Even Germany is sending weapons. Combine that with the apparent intense Ukrainian morale and Russian military incompetence/lack of will, Ukraine winning is not entirely out of the question. Even if they lose they seem fully prepared to commit to an insurgency, which given said international support and direct borders with NATO would be the best equipped insurgency in history. Never mind the potential effects of the sanctions, which are truly massive in scope. Ukraine could very well be the rock that breaks Russia's teeth.

logifail 5y ago
> the freaking EU of all organizations is saying they'll send them fighter jets For clarity, and despite Macron's urgings, the EU doesn't yet have an air force it can send anywhere. It does have the Common Security and Defence Policy[0]: "The CSDP involves the deployment of military or civilian missions to preserve peace, prevent conflict and strengthen international security in accordance with the principles of the United Nations Charter. Military missions are carried out by EU forces established with secondments from the member states' armed forces" [0] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Common_Security_and_Defence_Policy https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Common_Security_and_Defence_Po...
- scottLobster 5y ago
  https://www.barrons.com/news/eu-countries-to-send-fighter-jets-to-ukraine-borrell-01645994409 https://www.barrons.com/news/eu-countries-to-send-fighter-je... It was the EU "High Representative of the Union for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy" speaking for various EU members.
- anxrn 5y ago
  They appear to have said [1] they'll supply (finance + deliver) aircraft (which presumably the Ukrainians have the expertise to operate, per [2]). They have not said they'll send in an air force (operated by non-Ukrainians), which as you point out, they don't yet have. [1] https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/eu-close-airspace-russia-curb-media-target-belarus-2022-02-27/ https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/eu-close-airspace-russi... [2] https://www.barrons.com/news/eu-countries-to-send-fighter-jets-to-ukraine-borrell-01645994409 https://www.barrons.com/news/eu-countries-to-send-fighter-je...
  - petre 5y ago
    There are remaining MiG operators in Central and Eastern Europe. These planes have been converted to use NATO armament and they're being phased out anyway. Ukrainian pilots are already accustomed to using them. The EU could use resilience funds to buy F16, F35 or Saab Gripens for the former MiG operators. Some of these are already F16 or Saab Gripen operators.
    - yonaguska 5y ago
      Ukraine has no access to the air at this point anyways. I don't see this as plausible. No airports are secured, and Russia dominates the airspace right now. Even if NATO sends planes, how will they be transported there? And how will they establish a base of operations?
      - GauntletWizard 5y ago
        My guess is they'll initially sortie from Romania, maintaining IFF silence for plausible deniability, while a coordinated strike with man-and-vehicle portable SAMs retakes enough airspace in the western part of the country to support further operations.
        deleted 5y ago
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        yrgulation 5y ago
        That explains a lot.
        logifail 5y ago
        > plausible deniability You're proposing military aircraft owned by an EU member state should launch from their airfields in EU, sneak over the border and land in Ukraine, refuel and (re-)arm - and perhaps get a quick paint job too and have the aviation equivalent of their serial numbers filed off - then start attacking Russian forces in Ukraine, and our plan would be basically to hope that the enemy with apparently complete air superiority plus satellite capability might not notice? I'm firmly anti-war; that plan sounds like a great way to drag the EU and/or NATO straight into this one.
- ed_balls 5y ago
  Poland, Slovakia and Bulgaria will give them MiGs
NicoJuicy 5y ago
I think winning could be done by 2 ways: - holding out long enough, if it depleets Russia of resources ( aided with sanctions) - internal protests in Russia ( considering huge amount of relatives on both sides), that goes out of control - I don't know if this is realistic though. But I think the relative factor between those countries ( family members) can outwit the propaganda factor Those Ukranians are though as hell though. I'm sure we are seeing a more 'positive' side of them ( if that's possible in a war), but they aren't backing down. Uttermost respect for their president too. He seems to have a deep understanding of how he can reach the world.
- rodgerd 5y ago
  There's the third option, which is that the Russian elites simply murder Putin and use his corpse to blame Russia's problems on, not unlike Stalin and the post-Stalin denunciations.
  - NicoJuicy 5y ago
    I consider it internal protest tbh
    - rodgerd 5y ago
      I guess that it's a substantially different internal protest than ordinary Russians.
sharpy 5y ago
I think we underestimate how much this matters to Russia. They might indeed feel there is an existential threat to them (the elites, not Russia the country), if they let the countries on their periphery join EU/NATO, and become democracies, what guarantees do they have that it won't happen in Russia, and that a day of reckoning won't come for them for looting the motherland? And given the relative weakness demonstrated by the west in recent history (such as abandoning Afghanistan) they might judge that in the end, the rest of world won't have the stomach for any costly intervention. Sending the weapons to Ukraine amounts to little, in the face of overwhelming Russian military advantage. Given the likely goal of establishing pro-Russian government in Ukraine, and the long history of association, Russian forces are being rather "gentle" compared to what they demonstrated elsewhere, but if it comes to it... Ukraine cannot win without real support (as in boots on the ground) from the west, and nobody wants to contemplate that.
- scottLobster 5y ago
  Did sending weapons to Afghanistan amount to little, in the face of the overwhelming Russian military advantage? And Ukraine is a lot closer (physically and culturally), and the support a lot more open, than Afghanistan. As for the Russian Oliagarchs, if their concern was eventual revolution in Russia it looks like they may have just brought that day closer rather than pushed it out. They clearly weren't expecting a response of this magnitude, the question is when they choose to cut their losses.
- smoe 5y ago
  I don't think Ukraine will win a normal war against Russia, but will have to shift to more guerrilla warfare soon. But on the other hand, is Putin willing to occupy, likely for years, the second largest country of Europe with a population of 44 million to keep the established pro-Russian government actually in power? So far, it doesn't look like Ukrainians would just accept a puppet president, even if all the mayor cities would have been taken.
  - AniseAbyss 5y ago
    I have been thinking along the same lines. Who would actually want to run this pro Russia puppet regime? How many Ukrainians would recognize it as their government? Will the rest of the world ever want to do business with such a regime? Northern Cyprus has been in a limbo since the 1970s.
hinkley 5y ago
I am going to be shocked if it doesn't come out that Poland didn't at least send some consultants in to discuss guerilla tactics. My friend in college was a son of Polish dissidents. He didn't like to talk about it in too much depth but I got some impressions, and it sounds like his granddad was one of those people in the movie they made recently about the Polish resistance hiding in the woods during the Cold War.
- hef19898 5y ago
  Count on quite some NATO boots on the ground. Consultants, advisors, observers, US Special Forces (propably wearing Ukrainian uniforms and speaking perfectly Russian and Ukrainian), observation hardware (what better occasion to gather real life data of Russian hardware and doctrinecan there be...). After all, the timing of the attack might have been a surprise, that the attack will come was almost certain for years.
yonaguska 5y ago
[flagged]
- yrgulation 5y ago
  I’ve read it all. This is literally Putin’s speech mixed with all sorts of weird crap. That’s it. This forum has gone to shit.
  - yonaguska 5y ago
    I'm not familiar with Putin's speech. Do you seriously think that an insurgency is a good thing? The US military industrial complex is notorious for profiting off proxy conflicts. And we have never truly supported the revolutions that we push. Soros referenced the Hungarian revolution against the Russian occupation of 1954. In that revolution, we promised support over propaganda airwaves, then sat back and did nothing as countless Hungarians disappeared into the House of Terror with no material support. This time, Zelensky is arming untrained civilians, which will only inevitably result in an escalation. The propaganda that's coming out is really what made me start to question the Ukrainian leadership though. Ukrainian deserters being presented as Russian spies, a Ukrainian anti air missile striking a building in Kiev being presented as a Russian missile, the "Russian" tank running over a car- when it was a Ukrainian tank accident, the surrender at Snake island being presented as a martyrdom, the list is growing by the hour it seems. What I have not seen yet is an American style invasion plan where infrastructure is thoroughly bombed with the intent to pour billions of dollars into rebuilding "democracy"- that ends up really just being a way to pad people's pockets. I don't like Putin, and I don't like most of the Western leadership pushing for conflict escalation. I don't believe the leaders of either side actually represent their people. I'm trying to objectively analyze this from the perspective of what ends up happening to the regular people of Ukraine. Am I just an unwitting recipient of Russian propaganda? If so- instead of flippantly dismissing my perspective- care to elucidate what I have wrong?
    - halfnormalform 5y ago
      Maybe if you didn’t delete your words? Let’s start there.

logifail 5y ago

> the freaking EU of all organizations is saying they'll send them fighter jets For clarity, and despite Macron's urgings, the EU doesn't yet have an air force it can send anywhere. It does have the Common Security and Defence Policy[0]: "The CSDP involves the deployment of military or civilian missions to preserve peace, prevent conflict and strengthen international security in accordance with the principles of the United Nations Charter. Military missions are carried out by EU forces established with secondments from the member states' armed forces" [0] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Common_Security_and_Defence_Policy https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Common_Security_and_Defence_Po...

scottLobster 5y ago
https://www.barrons.com/news/eu-countries-to-send-fighter-jets-to-ukraine-borrell-01645994409 https://www.barrons.com/news/eu-countries-to-send-fighter-je... It was the EU "High Representative of the Union for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy" speaking for various EU members.
anxrn 5y ago
They appear to have said [1] they'll supply (finance + deliver) aircraft (which presumably the Ukrainians have the expertise to operate, per [2]). They have not said they'll send in an air force (operated by non-Ukrainians), which as you point out, they don't yet have. [1] https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/eu-close-airspace-russia-curb-media-target-belarus-2022-02-27/ https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/eu-close-airspace-russi... [2] https://www.barrons.com/news/eu-countries-to-send-fighter-jets-to-ukraine-borrell-01645994409 https://www.barrons.com/news/eu-countries-to-send-fighter-je...
- petre 5y ago
  There are remaining MiG operators in Central and Eastern Europe. These planes have been converted to use NATO armament and they're being phased out anyway. Ukrainian pilots are already accustomed to using them. The EU could use resilience funds to buy F16, F35 or Saab Gripens for the former MiG operators. Some of these are already F16 or Saab Gripen operators.
  - yonaguska 5y ago
    Ukraine has no access to the air at this point anyways. I don't see this as plausible. No airports are secured, and Russia dominates the airspace right now. Even if NATO sends planes, how will they be transported there? And how will they establish a base of operations?
    - GauntletWizard 5y ago
      My guess is they'll initially sortie from Romania, maintaining IFF silence for plausible deniability, while a coordinated strike with man-and-vehicle portable SAMs retakes enough airspace in the western part of the country to support further operations.
      - deleted 5y ago
        [deleted]
      - deleted 5y ago
        [deleted]
      - deleted 5y ago
        [deleted]
      - yrgulation 5y ago
        That explains a lot.
      - logifail 5y ago
        > plausible deniability You're proposing military aircraft owned by an EU member state should launch from their airfields in EU, sneak over the border and land in Ukraine, refuel and (re-)arm - and perhaps get a quick paint job too and have the aviation equivalent of their serial numbers filed off - then start attacking Russian forces in Ukraine, and our plan would be basically to hope that the enemy with apparently complete air superiority plus satellite capability might not notice? I'm firmly anti-war; that plan sounds like a great way to drag the EU and/or NATO straight into this one.
ed_balls 5y ago
Poland, Slovakia and Bulgaria will give them MiGs

NicoJuicy 5y ago

I think winning could be done by 2 ways: - holding out long enough, if it depleets Russia of resources ( aided with sanctions) - internal protests in Russia ( considering huge amount of relatives on both sides), that goes out of control - I don't know if this is realistic though. But I think the relative factor between those countries ( family members) can outwit the propaganda factor Those Ukranians are though as hell though. I'm sure we are seeing a more 'positive' side of them ( if that's possible in a war), but they aren't backing down. Uttermost respect for their president too. He seems to have a deep understanding of how he can reach the world.

rodgerd 5y ago
There's the third option, which is that the Russian elites simply murder Putin and use his corpse to blame Russia's problems on, not unlike Stalin and the post-Stalin denunciations.
- NicoJuicy 5y ago
  I consider it internal protest tbh
  - rodgerd 5y ago
    I guess that it's a substantially different internal protest than ordinary Russians.

sharpy 5y ago

I think we underestimate how much this matters to Russia. They might indeed feel there is an existential threat to them (the elites, not Russia the country), if they let the countries on their periphery join EU/NATO, and become democracies, what guarantees do they have that it won't happen in Russia, and that a day of reckoning won't come for them for looting the motherland? And given the relative weakness demonstrated by the west in recent history (such as abandoning Afghanistan) they might judge that in the end, the rest of world won't have the stomach for any costly intervention. Sending the weapons to Ukraine amounts to little, in the face of overwhelming Russian military advantage. Given the likely goal of establishing pro-Russian government in Ukraine, and the long history of association, Russian forces are being rather "gentle" compared to what they demonstrated elsewhere, but if it comes to it... Ukraine cannot win without real support (as in boots on the ground) from the west, and nobody wants to contemplate that.

scottLobster 5y ago
Did sending weapons to Afghanistan amount to little, in the face of the overwhelming Russian military advantage? And Ukraine is a lot closer (physically and culturally), and the support a lot more open, than Afghanistan. As for the Russian Oliagarchs, if their concern was eventual revolution in Russia it looks like they may have just brought that day closer rather than pushed it out. They clearly weren't expecting a response of this magnitude, the question is when they choose to cut their losses.
smoe 5y ago
I don't think Ukraine will win a normal war against Russia, but will have to shift to more guerrilla warfare soon. But on the other hand, is Putin willing to occupy, likely for years, the second largest country of Europe with a population of 44 million to keep the established pro-Russian government actually in power? So far, it doesn't look like Ukrainians would just accept a puppet president, even if all the mayor cities would have been taken.
- AniseAbyss 5y ago
  I have been thinking along the same lines. Who would actually want to run this pro Russia puppet regime? How many Ukrainians would recognize it as their government? Will the rest of the world ever want to do business with such a regime? Northern Cyprus has been in a limbo since the 1970s.

hinkley 5y ago

I am going to be shocked if it doesn't come out that Poland didn't at least send some consultants in to discuss guerilla tactics. My friend in college was a son of Polish dissidents. He didn't like to talk about it in too much depth but I got some impressions, and it sounds like his granddad was one of those people in the movie they made recently about the Polish resistance hiding in the woods during the Cold War.

hef19898 5y ago
Count on quite some NATO boots on the ground. Consultants, advisors, observers, US Special Forces (propably wearing Ukrainian uniforms and speaking perfectly Russian and Ukrainian), observation hardware (what better occasion to gather real life data of Russian hardware and doctrinecan there be...). After all, the timing of the attack might have been a surprise, that the attack will come was almost certain for years.

yonaguska 5y ago

[flagged]

yrgulation 5y ago
I’ve read it all. This is literally Putin’s speech mixed with all sorts of weird crap. That’s it. This forum has gone to shit.
- yonaguska 5y ago
  I'm not familiar with Putin's speech. Do you seriously think that an insurgency is a good thing? The US military industrial complex is notorious for profiting off proxy conflicts. And we have never truly supported the revolutions that we push. Soros referenced the Hungarian revolution against the Russian occupation of 1954. In that revolution, we promised support over propaganda airwaves, then sat back and did nothing as countless Hungarians disappeared into the House of Terror with no material support. This time, Zelensky is arming untrained civilians, which will only inevitably result in an escalation. The propaganda that's coming out is really what made me start to question the Ukrainian leadership though. Ukrainian deserters being presented as Russian spies, a Ukrainian anti air missile striking a building in Kiev being presented as a Russian missile, the "Russian" tank running over a car- when it was a Ukrainian tank accident, the surrender at Snake island being presented as a martyrdom, the list is growing by the hour it seems. What I have not seen yet is an American style invasion plan where infrastructure is thoroughly bombed with the intent to pour billions of dollars into rebuilding "democracy"- that ends up really just being a way to pad people's pockets. I don't like Putin, and I don't like most of the Western leadership pushing for conflict escalation. I don't believe the leaders of either side actually represent their people. I'm trying to objectively analyze this from the perspective of what ends up happening to the regular people of Ukraine. Am I just an unwitting recipient of Russian propaganda? If so- instead of flippantly dismissing my perspective- care to elucidate what I have wrong?
  - halfnormalform 5y ago
    Maybe if you didn’t delete your words? Let’s start there.