6 ms·

At this point, would anyone trust Putin?

andy_ppp 5y ago
This is the issue; where is the end game here for Putin, I can't see a way out for him and the people who surround him. My psychological analysis of him basically says Putin is the king of the gangsters and he knows as such he needs to keep everyone scared and also demonstrate his power. The way you get to be Putin is to behave in the most extreme way possible when crossed, this pattern is likely to continue one way or another. We should seriously think about something we can do to give the gangster a way out (appease his ego while he in return withdraws). I know this sounds weak but the other options are really very bad, a disconnected Russia with loads of nukes with a leader with an increasingly extreme disposition that blames the West for all his problems (because Putin has stopped being able to be wrong). Tell me this situation I've outlined is fine because to me it certainly means sabotaging of the West at the least and nuclear war at worst? That he will be replaced by people in the Kremlin is extremely unlikely in my opinion and who is to say his replacement will be anything less than consistent with the Cold War mentality Putin seems to be spouting.
- teaearlgraycold 5y ago
  I think one way out is for Putin to get scapegoated by his inner circle. He's only the dictator of Russia as long as they're happy.
  - andy_ppp 5y ago
    I think you misunderstand how scared everyone around Putin is of him and the KGB. Especially the oligarchs - you think they give him 50% of their money because they really appreciate how nice and kind Putin is?
    - JonChesterfield 5y ago
      I assume the working theory is that the KGB are not delighted with the present circumstances.
    - xdennis 5y ago
      My understanding (from reading All the Kremlin's Men), is that Putin's strength is overstated in the West and that he rules with the approval of the oligarchs. If they turn on him, he might just die from an undiagnosed tumor.
      - thriftwy 5y ago
        They will turn on him to lose the war and pay through the nose, and then continue to suffer all the consequences in hopes that it ends eventually? It sounds like a semi-plausible option but a bad plan.
    - livueta 5y ago
      On one hand you're right, but on the other - that sort of thing isn't exactly unprecedented. Everyone was terrified of Beria until they weren't. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lavrentiy_Beria#Arrest,_trial_and_execution https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lavrentiy_Beria#Arrest,_trial_...
    - dragonwriter 5y ago
      > I think you misunderstand how scared everyone around Putin is of him and the KGB. I suspect more people around Putin are afraid of the FSB than the KGB.
      - ttyprintk 5y ago
        Patrushev, to be specific among the political attendants.
    - teaearlgraycold 5y ago
      Why would anyone be loyal to Putin when they're not getting paid like they used to be? The ruble is already crashing and Russian markets open soon.
  - blunte 5y ago
    I think it's the inner circle that will be his doom. He is costing them all a lot of money and options. What's the point of being an oligarch if you can't jetset around the world, owning high value properties and demonstrating your wealth? He has essentially made what he gave them worth much less. These wealthy people must have powerful connections that they can work with. It should be possible for them to organize some changes of office...
    - noxer 5y ago
      Most of these wealthy people there are Jewish and according to Putin's propaganda Ukraine needs to be freed from Nazis. I'm sure most of these wealthy people support the war and probably knew in advance and protected most of their assets. The raw materials in Russia will still be raw materials in a few years. Its not like they will lose value in the log term because of this. Any kind of crisis only kills the small the big will be ready to buy up everything and make profit.
- askonomm 5y ago
  I think his way out should be in an electric chair, like all other terrorists.
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- NicoJuicy 5y ago
  Don't underestimate the reliance a dictator has on his cronies. There's a really good video about this by CGP Grey that talks about dictatorships: https://youtu.be/rStL7niR7gs https://youtu.be/rStL7niR7gs And then think about some of the latest updates: - nuclear threat - increasing embassy protests - seemingly total reliance on a new actor with a yet unknown trust wordiness ( i don't think anyone wants to be associated with Russia currently) - travel restrictions for the rich + family ( superyacht, flights, ... ) - real estate seizure - money seizure - reduced currency value - halved bank reserves ( because of seizure) - potential family issues ( a lot of Russians have Ukraine ties/origin) - family protests on the streets, civilian unrest ( anti-war), as I think most Russians don't want to be related as an aggressor - neglect of his cronies worries - booting off Swift/Switzerland and large expansion of targetted individuals Something really seems off internally: eg. https://youtu.be/ucEs0nBuowE https://youtu.be/ucEs0nBuowE
- jacquesm 5y ago
  > I can't see a way out for him Packed in six pieces of wood. > and the people who surround him. For once they can be heros.
  - andy_ppp 5y ago
    I think this is a misreading of what a marginalised loyalist thinks, imagine this was happening to a Trump loyalist, I’m pretty certain you’d be seeing them double down on their support not just suddenly realise they don’t like Trump anyway.
xdennis 5y ago
That's the thing. I'm not sure how this can end if the oligarchs don't overthrow him.
gus_massa 5y ago
> withdraws from Ukraine This can be verified. > pays reparations This can be verified. > is bound by international agreements not to do something like this again This is not worth the paper it's written on, but perhaps it may be the only way and reach a peace soon and make everyone pretend to be friends while preparing for the next encounter.
blunte 5y ago
Absolutely not. But his appears to be a last ditch effort by a man with waning influence. He has not made Russia better or stronger; he has only made a few people close to him ultra rich at the cost of the general population. Even if he were to win and gain control of Ukraine, he will lose. He likely will have lost support at home, and he absolutely will have lost support in much of the rest of the world.

This is the issue; where is the end game here for Putin, I can't see a way out for him and the people who surround him. My psychological analysis of him basically says Putin is the king of the gangsters and he knows as such he needs to keep everyone scared and also demonstrate his power. The way you get to be Putin is to behave in the most extreme way possible when crossed, this pattern is likely to continue one way or another. We should seriously think about something we can do to give the gangster a way out (appease his ego while he in return withdraws). I know this sounds weak but the other options are really very bad, a disconnected Russia with loads of nukes with a leader with an increasingly extreme disposition that blames the West for all his problems (because Putin has stopped being able to be wrong). Tell me this situation I've outlined is fine because to me it certainly means sabotaging of the West at the least and nuclear war at worst? That he will be replaced by people in the Kremlin is extremely unlikely in my opinion and who is to say his replacement will be anything less than consistent with the Cold War mentality Putin seems to be spouting.

teaearlgraycold 5y ago
I think one way out is for Putin to get scapegoated by his inner circle. He's only the dictator of Russia as long as they're happy.
- andy_ppp 5y ago
  I think you misunderstand how scared everyone around Putin is of him and the KGB. Especially the oligarchs - you think they give him 50% of their money because they really appreciate how nice and kind Putin is?
  - JonChesterfield 5y ago
    I assume the working theory is that the KGB are not delighted with the present circumstances.
  - xdennis 5y ago
    My understanding (from reading All the Kremlin's Men), is that Putin's strength is overstated in the West and that he rules with the approval of the oligarchs. If they turn on him, he might just die from an undiagnosed tumor.
    - thriftwy 5y ago
      They will turn on him to lose the war and pay through the nose, and then continue to suffer all the consequences in hopes that it ends eventually? It sounds like a semi-plausible option but a bad plan.
  - livueta 5y ago
    On one hand you're right, but on the other - that sort of thing isn't exactly unprecedented. Everyone was terrified of Beria until they weren't. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lavrentiy_Beria#Arrest,_trial_and_execution https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lavrentiy_Beria#Arrest,_trial_...
  - dragonwriter 5y ago
    > I think you misunderstand how scared everyone around Putin is of him and the KGB. I suspect more people around Putin are afraid of the FSB than the KGB.
    - ttyprintk 5y ago
      Patrushev, to be specific among the political attendants.
  - teaearlgraycold 5y ago
    Why would anyone be loyal to Putin when they're not getting paid like they used to be? The ruble is already crashing and Russian markets open soon.
- blunte 5y ago
  I think it's the inner circle that will be his doom. He is costing them all a lot of money and options. What's the point of being an oligarch if you can't jetset around the world, owning high value properties and demonstrating your wealth? He has essentially made what he gave them worth much less. These wealthy people must have powerful connections that they can work with. It should be possible for them to organize some changes of office...
  - noxer 5y ago
    Most of these wealthy people there are Jewish and according to Putin's propaganda Ukraine needs to be freed from Nazis. I'm sure most of these wealthy people support the war and probably knew in advance and protected most of their assets. The raw materials in Russia will still be raw materials in a few years. Its not like they will lose value in the log term because of this. Any kind of crisis only kills the small the big will be ready to buy up everything and make profit.
askonomm 5y ago
I think his way out should be in an electric chair, like all other terrorists.
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NicoJuicy 5y ago
Don't underestimate the reliance a dictator has on his cronies. There's a really good video about this by CGP Grey that talks about dictatorships: https://youtu.be/rStL7niR7gs https://youtu.be/rStL7niR7gs And then think about some of the latest updates: - nuclear threat - increasing embassy protests - seemingly total reliance on a new actor with a yet unknown trust wordiness ( i don't think anyone wants to be associated with Russia currently) - travel restrictions for the rich + family ( superyacht, flights, ... ) - real estate seizure - money seizure - reduced currency value - halved bank reserves ( because of seizure) - potential family issues ( a lot of Russians have Ukraine ties/origin) - family protests on the streets, civilian unrest ( anti-war), as I think most Russians don't want to be related as an aggressor - neglect of his cronies worries - booting off Swift/Switzerland and large expansion of targetted individuals Something really seems off internally: eg. https://youtu.be/ucEs0nBuowE https://youtu.be/ucEs0nBuowE
jacquesm 5y ago
> I can't see a way out for him Packed in six pieces of wood. > and the people who surround him. For once they can be heros.
- andy_ppp 5y ago
  I think this is a misreading of what a marginalised loyalist thinks, imagine this was happening to a Trump loyalist, I’m pretty certain you’d be seeing them double down on their support not just suddenly realise they don’t like Trump anyway.

xdennis 5y ago

That's the thing. I'm not sure how this can end if the oligarchs don't overthrow him.

gus_massa 5y ago

> withdraws from Ukraine This can be verified. > pays reparations This can be verified. > is bound by international agreements not to do something like this again This is not worth the paper it's written on, but perhaps it may be the only way and reach a peace soon and make everyone pretend to be friends while preparing for the next encounter.

blunte 5y ago

Absolutely not. But his appears to be a last ditch effort by a man with waning influence. He has not made Russia better or stronger; he has only made a few people close to him ultra rich at the cost of the general population. Even if he were to win and gain control of Ukraine, he will lose. He likely will have lost support at home, and he absolutely will have lost support in much of the rest of the world.