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I'm not scared but I'm alarmed that this is even a remote possibility. A few months ago the sheer idea that we would see an old school invasion by a major power
by jmfldn 5y ago
I'm not scared but I'm alarmed that this is even a remote possibility. A few months ago the sheer idea that we would see an old school invasion by a major power in Europe would have seemed impossible to me. I never contemplated that this was possible in the current world order yet here we are. Not that it could never happen again, but not now or in the foreseeable future. So we were very wrong about this collectively, what other delusions about what is possible are we harbouring?
I am very concerned about Putin's state of mind. This does not appear to be a rational course of action so he's either badly miscalculated, or worse, he's living in an alternate reality. Furthermore, because nukes are part of the equation we must make Putin feel that there is a path to de-escalation. If he gets backed into a corner, and feels like he can't retreat, this could become existential for all of us. I think it's a fairly remote possibility but we cannot rule out the use of WMDs. Either battlefield nukes and chemical weapons in Ukraine or, utter worst case, full blown nuclear war against the West if we confront him head on.
I don't want go be alarmist, the last point is pretty unlikely at this point, but there must be an escape hatch for Putin here. However, if he feels that despite whatever ways out we give him he can't back down as it would end his regime, that could be a worst case scenario. We can't control the political situation in Russia. Could he become "all in" at this point?
- jacquesm 5y ago> A few months ago the sheer idea that we would see an old school invasion by a major power in Europe would have seemed impossible to me. I think you are not alone in that. But that only serves to illustrate that we tend to collectively forget the lessons from history way too easily. I grew up at a time when this was pretty much a continuous concern and it never left me so I'm a lot less surprised. But around me I see people - younger people, mostly - go around like the bottom just fell out of their whole worldview.
- jmfldn 5y agoThat's all true for many younger people no doubt. However, as a history graduate it wasn't like I lacked the context. It was more that the necessary preconditions seemed absent in the present era. With regards to a wider global conflict, my expectation was that it could happen in the coming decades, possibly as a second order effect of climate change. It just seemed that, right now, the variables in the equation were wrong. We didn't reckon with Putin being this way though. He seemed like a difficult thorn in the side of the west, a belligerent and cunning autocrat, but I never saw him confronting Europe in this way. I think he's actually changed. This might be premeditated but I don't think this was his plan 20 years ago whatever anger he harboured towards the west back then.
- jacquesm 5y agoDictators rarely go quietly.