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The more sanctions there are, the more stuff Putin has to conquer to use as bargaining chips to lift those sanctions. I just wonder how this is supposed to wor

The more sanctions there are, the more stuff Putin has to conquer to use as bargaining chips to lift those sanctions. I just wonder how this is supposed to work in any other way. They ensure that the war won't stop because Putin has already faced some consequences on the domestic front and how he has to show some black ink.

_ph_ 5y ago
There is only one thing he needs to do to lift the sanctions, and that is independant from his conquests. That is: leave the Ukraine. Actually, it is the other way around. The less damage is done, the more likely is a quick lift of sanctions.
- thriftwy 5y ago
  There's no legal mechanism which will automatically terminate these sanctions (which, I believe, are placed by different entities in ad hoc basis, as opposed as centralized control) over Putin leaving Ukraine. If Putin leaves Ukraine, the asset freezing and all the other stuff stays, and may be discussed later. That's why he won't leave Ukraine even under heavy discomfort of maintaining that presence.
  - newaccount74 5y ago
    I'm pretty sure most countries would be eager to lift the sanctions rather quickly, since they are losing a lot of business due to the sanctions. If Putin really stopped the invasion, then the sanctions would probably be undone rather quickly.
    - Mountain_Skies 5y ago
      If it becomes apparent that Russia is going to stay in Ukraine, business interests will immediately start prodding their governments for special exceptions. There will start off on humanitarian grounds, like medicines and medical devices but we've seen with sanctions on other countries that over time these exceptions grow, often due to financial interests of the well connected. You'll probably never be able to export cheese to Russia but lots of things with dual uses will get approved for export and then used for both uses even though only approved for one use.
      - NoPie 5y ago
        I think that Putin has crossed the line and the EU will not give up sanctions easily. The EU just announced that will provide financing for fighter jets that will be given to Ukraine. The EU president also said that will accept Ukraine in the EU (with due improvements of course). They are really big announcements. Everything has changed during these days.
        dboreham 5y ago
        Putin's huge mistake was that he pissed off regular people in the west. Through snapchat and tiktok etc young people have become aware in a new way how much of a dick he is. These people then put pressure on their governments to act.
        User23 5y ago
        That’s a laugh. It’s already been proven that regular people in the west have literally no political say[1]. What we can infer is that western oligarchs are committed to Ukraine or at least are firmly anti-Russian. [1] https://www.cambridge.org/core/journals/perspectives-on-politics/article/testing-theories-of-american-politics-elites-interest-groups-and-average-citizens/62327F513959D0A304D4893B382B992B https://www.cambridge.org/core/journals/perspectives-on-poli...
  - _ph_ 5y ago
    There is no need for such a mechanism. But the quicker he leaves Ukraine and the less damage he causes, the more likely it is, that the West would relax the sanctions. (I could easily imagine opening up North Stream 2 quickly, if the money paid for the gas would go to Ukraine until the damages are compensated for)
gerikson 5y ago
What? The sanctions can be lifted when Russia withdraws from Ukraine, pays reparations, and is bound by international agreements not to do something like this again.
- wereHamster 5y ago
  At this point, would anyone trust Putin?
  - andy_ppp 5y ago
    This is the issue; where is the end game here for Putin, I can't see a way out for him and the people who surround him. My psychological analysis of him basically says Putin is the king of the gangsters and he knows as such he needs to keep everyone scared and also demonstrate his power. The way you get to be Putin is to behave in the most extreme way possible when crossed, this pattern is likely to continue one way or another. We should seriously think about something we can do to give the gangster a way out (appease his ego while he in return withdraws). I know this sounds weak but the other options are really very bad, a disconnected Russia with loads of nukes with a leader with an increasingly extreme disposition that blames the West for all his problems (because Putin has stopped being able to be wrong). Tell me this situation I've outlined is fine because to me it certainly means sabotaging of the West at the least and nuclear war at worst? That he will be replaced by people in the Kremlin is extremely unlikely in my opinion and who is to say his replacement will be anything less than consistent with the Cold War mentality Putin seems to be spouting.
    - teaearlgraycold 5y ago
      I think one way out is for Putin to get scapegoated by his inner circle. He's only the dictator of Russia as long as they're happy.
      - andy_ppp 5y ago
        I think you misunderstand how scared everyone around Putin is of him and the KGB. Especially the oligarchs - you think they give him 50% of their money because they really appreciate how nice and kind Putin is?

_ph_ 5y ago

There is only one thing he needs to do to lift the sanctions, and that is independant from his conquests. That is: leave the Ukraine. Actually, it is the other way around. The less damage is done, the more likely is a quick lift of sanctions.

thriftwy 5y ago
There's no legal mechanism which will automatically terminate these sanctions (which, I believe, are placed by different entities in ad hoc basis, as opposed as centralized control) over Putin leaving Ukraine. If Putin leaves Ukraine, the asset freezing and all the other stuff stays, and may be discussed later. That's why he won't leave Ukraine even under heavy discomfort of maintaining that presence.
- newaccount74 5y ago
  I'm pretty sure most countries would be eager to lift the sanctions rather quickly, since they are losing a lot of business due to the sanctions. If Putin really stopped the invasion, then the sanctions would probably be undone rather quickly.
  - Mountain_Skies 5y ago
    If it becomes apparent that Russia is going to stay in Ukraine, business interests will immediately start prodding their governments for special exceptions. There will start off on humanitarian grounds, like medicines and medical devices but we've seen with sanctions on other countries that over time these exceptions grow, often due to financial interests of the well connected. You'll probably never be able to export cheese to Russia but lots of things with dual uses will get approved for export and then used for both uses even though only approved for one use.
    - NoPie 5y ago
      I think that Putin has crossed the line and the EU will not give up sanctions easily. The EU just announced that will provide financing for fighter jets that will be given to Ukraine. The EU president also said that will accept Ukraine in the EU (with due improvements of course). They are really big announcements. Everything has changed during these days.
      - dboreham 5y ago
        Putin's huge mistake was that he pissed off regular people in the west. Through snapchat and tiktok etc young people have become aware in a new way how much of a dick he is. These people then put pressure on their governments to act.
        User23 5y ago
        That’s a laugh. It’s already been proven that regular people in the west have literally no political say[1]. What we can infer is that western oligarchs are committed to Ukraine or at least are firmly anti-Russian. [1] https://www.cambridge.org/core/journals/perspectives-on-politics/article/testing-theories-of-american-politics-elites-interest-groups-and-average-citizens/62327F513959D0A304D4893B382B992B https://www.cambridge.org/core/journals/perspectives-on-poli...
- _ph_ 5y ago
  There is no need for such a mechanism. But the quicker he leaves Ukraine and the less damage he causes, the more likely it is, that the West would relax the sanctions. (I could easily imagine opening up North Stream 2 quickly, if the money paid for the gas would go to Ukraine until the damages are compensated for)

gerikson 5y ago

What? The sanctions can be lifted when Russia withdraws from Ukraine, pays reparations, and is bound by international agreements not to do something like this again.

wereHamster 5y ago
At this point, would anyone trust Putin?
- andy_ppp 5y ago
  This is the issue; where is the end game here for Putin, I can't see a way out for him and the people who surround him. My psychological analysis of him basically says Putin is the king of the gangsters and he knows as such he needs to keep everyone scared and also demonstrate his power. The way you get to be Putin is to behave in the most extreme way possible when crossed, this pattern is likely to continue one way or another. We should seriously think about something we can do to give the gangster a way out (appease his ego while he in return withdraws). I know this sounds weak but the other options are really very bad, a disconnected Russia with loads of nukes with a leader with an increasingly extreme disposition that blames the West for all his problems (because Putin has stopped being able to be wrong). Tell me this situation I've outlined is fine because to me it certainly means sabotaging of the West at the least and nuclear war at worst? That he will be replaced by people in the Kremlin is extremely unlikely in my opinion and who is to say his replacement will be anything less than consistent with the Cold War mentality Putin seems to be spouting.
  - teaearlgraycold 5y ago
    I think one way out is for Putin to get scapegoated by his inner circle. He's only the dictator of Russia as long as they're happy.
    - andy_ppp 5y ago
      I think you misunderstand how scared everyone around Putin is of him and the KGB. Especially the oligarchs - you think they give him 50% of their money because they really appreciate how nice and kind Putin is?