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> That said, I think it's extremely unlikely this will escalate to a nuclear exchange. Tail risk is real. No one thought Trump would be president. No one saw t
by ctvo 5y ago
> That said, I think it's extremely unlikely this will escalate to a nuclear exchange.
Tail risk is real. No one thought Trump would be president. No one saw the pandemic changing the world. No one thought there’d be conventional land war in Europe again. I hope nothing happens but I’ll withhold assigning likelihood for now.
- theshrike79 5y agoI'm relying on the fact that even though Putin seems to be completely unhinged and detached from reality, the people responsible for keeping Russian nukes working and managing their launch aren't.
- mach1ne 5y agoThat depends on how the system is organized. If there is a briefcase with a large red button, and the people in the silos don't know whether the launch is real or training, Putin's decision is literally the only factor.
- readme 5y agos/No one/most people/
- withinboredom 5y ago> No one thought Trump would be president. Anyone who thought through the whole thing saw it as obvious he was. Republicans were thinking Democrats were going to show up in droves. Democrats thought no one would vote for Trump, so why vote?