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Same here, living in Berlin and the most frigthend signal was the move from Germany to up their budget for military operations. No one seems to recognize what a

Same here, living in Berlin and the most frigthend signal was the move from Germany to up their budget for military operations. No one seems to recognize what a massive shift this is. Something you would just do if immediate and long-term danger is next door. Means, they see something which is definetely not in the news. My partner is not from Germany and we are considering leaving the EU for now to sit this one out. At least go to a country where you can drive away and look for shelter in case of a radioactive blast. It's difficult, since the few who forsee things stay alive, but if you actually prepare and nothing happens, you look dumb as fuck. I don't know what to do. If you don't have family and the means, look for a smaller EU island or maybe even the US or Canada for 6 months and work from there. At least there, you can find natural resources and water to survive. Keep the MOEX tab open and see how hard Russia is getting hit in a few hours or all next week: https://tradingeconomics.com/russia/stock-market https://tradingeconomics.com/russia/stock-market With these sanctions, Putin might actually have nothing left but send a warning shot. He can't go back to his country, trying and maybe failed to invade a neighbour, just to return empty handed and with the stock market close to 0, inflation and the Rubel basically worthless. EDIT: I think this goes into the wrong direction: https://www.euronews.com/2022/02/27/ukraine-is-one-of-us-and-we-want-them-in-eu-ursula-von-der-leyen-tells-euronews https://www.euronews.com/2022/02/27/ukraine-is-one-of-us-and... So Putin is so angry and feels threatend that he wants to overthrough Ukraine, and the answer is to make them a member of the EU? This screams like more aggressives answers from Putin. I personally expect a smaller nuclear warning shot over the ocean from Putin next week.

jowday 5y ago
I think the reality is that where exactly you were when the nukes started flying wouldn't matter - you'd be very likely to die of starvation or other causes in the days and weeks afterwords unless you were already prepared with a clean source of water and stockpiled food in a remote location. That said, I think it's extremely unlikely this will escalate to a nuclear exchange. Nobody wants that, and I think it's likelier that Putin is deposed before he (successfully) orders a nuclear launch. The rumor is that Putin has given the order to take Kyiv by the end of Monday, and that's going to involve use of artillery and rockets indiscriminately against an urban environment, resulting in tons of civilian deaths. The nuclear readiness alert is to signal to the west not to interfere even amidst the carnage.
- ctvo 5y ago
  > That said, I think it's extremely unlikely this will escalate to a nuclear exchange. Tail risk is real. No one thought Trump would be president. No one saw the pandemic changing the world. No one thought there’d be conventional land war in Europe again. I hope nothing happens but I’ll withhold assigning likelihood for now.
  - theshrike79 5y ago
    I'm relying on the fact that even though Putin seems to be completely unhinged and detached from reality, the people responsible for keeping Russian nukes working and managing their launch aren't.
    - mach1ne 5y ago
      That depends on how the system is organized. If there is a briefcase with a large red button, and the people in the silos don't know whether the launch is real or training, Putin's decision is literally the only factor.
  - readme 5y ago
    s/No one/most people/
  - withinboredom 5y ago
    > No one thought Trump would be president. Anyone who thought through the whole thing saw it as obvious he was. Republicans were thinking Democrats were going to show up in droves. Democrats thought no one would vote for Trump, so why vote?
- rightbyte 5y ago
  Russia could nuke some deserted island to show business without triggering a nuclear war. I don't think they are desperate enought yet though? Supposedly they argue they are winning.
  - jowday 5y ago
robbiep 5y ago
Well basically it just means Germany is meeting its obligations under NATO to spend 2% on military - which they haven’t done for a very long time.
- FabHK 5y ago
  Yes, so that they now choose to follow that guideline still constitutes a considerable shift.
burntoutfire 5y ago
> Something you would just do if immediate and long-term danger is next door. Yep, it's called Russia, at least as long as Putin rules it.
glitchcrab 5y ago
You really think that he would launch a nuclear strike? Have you not heard of Mutually Assured Destruction? Sure, the consequences for the rest of us would be terrible but the moment he launches a strike then he's going to be on the receiving end of one too, and that would be disastrous for his country. The chance of this actually turning nuclear is infinitesimally small.
- selfhoster11 5y ago
  If he cares only about himself, and knows that he hasn't got that much time left on this earth, then he won't care about a possible atomic war.
  - glitchcrab 5y ago
    He's already said that he's trying to build a legacy; it won't be much of a legacy if Russia is a nuclear wasteland. He's clearly living in an alternate reality to the rest of us, but I very much doubt that's how he wants to be remembered.
- jack_squat 5y ago
  In my opinion "infinitesimal" is too small. I think at this point a nuke strike is a bigger risk than covid, for most.
  - glitchcrab 5y ago
    As long as nuclear weapons exist then there's always going to be an infinitesimally small chance that they will be used, so you must live your life in perpetual fear.
- deleted 5y ago
  [deleted]
withinboredom 5y ago
> or maybe even the US or Canada for 6 months and work from there. As an American in the EU, my entire family has been calling me for days to move back. Personally, I think its unlikely that Russia would nuke anyone in the EU. If anything, they would nuke the US. Plus, it's much more likely to die from some random shooting in the US than by a nuke any day of the week.
- kypro 5y ago
  They have enough nukes to nuke every city in NATO. Under no situation would they just nuke the US.
  - baybal2 5y ago
    Russian first strike capability with land + sea based missiles is at most 1000 warheads. Clearly not enough.
    - jacquesm 5y ago
      And that is assuming they work, which estimates are very much varied about. Obviously Russia isn't going to help with verification here.
rootusrootus 5y ago
> I personally expect a smaller nuclear warning shot over the ocean from Putin next week. That would be an escalation so phenomenal it would completely overshadow everything that has happened in the past week. By a huge margin.
- mach1ne 5y ago
  Not if it's framed as a training excercise.
  - rootusrootus 5y ago
    It would put Putin squarely in Kim Jong-Un territory, which seems like an odd choice on his part. Nobody doubts that he has functional nukes.
- glitchcrab 5y ago
  The amount of nonsense in these comments is genuinely astounding. The change in nuclear readiness from Putin is posturing; it's light years away from him actually pulling the trigger on MAD.
AnonymousPlanet 5y ago
If you are worried, maybe you should move. Closer to a primary target. You don't want to be alive for the aftermath. And yes, it's been on all of our minds and we all worry to some extent. But this is the one thing that none of us can preempt with the means of our small lives. There's nowhere to hide from it. Watch a nice movie and let others worry about it. Oh and welcome to the 80s.
- nate_meurer 5y ago
  My wife and I have talked about this before. How would we feel and what would we do if we knew nukes were incoming to our urban area dotted with military and government targets. We tentatively agreed we'd be in our backyard eating crepes and reading psalms, rather than hiding in the basement with respirators. But maybe that's just big talk. Reality might not be so clear cut.
jacquesm 5y ago
> No one seems to recognize what a massive shift this is. It is recognized loud and clear all over Europe.
baybal2 5y ago
> So Putin is so angry and feels threatend that he wants to overthrough Ukraine, and the answer is to make them a member of the EU? This screams like more aggressives answers from Putin. I personally expect a smaller nuclear warning shot over the ocean from Putin next week. There is an option: attack first. If Russian nuclear C&C is taken down, I doubt any of officers in the bunker would dare to launch. Even if they will, these would be uncoordinated launches, and nowhere near the size of a coordinated attack.
- s5300 5y ago
  Pretty sure the Perimeter is still alive & well, quietly waiting for this exact situation. Don’t think it’s a bluff.

jowday 5y ago

I think the reality is that where exactly you were when the nukes started flying wouldn't matter - you'd be very likely to die of starvation or other causes in the days and weeks afterwords unless you were already prepared with a clean source of water and stockpiled food in a remote location. That said, I think it's extremely unlikely this will escalate to a nuclear exchange. Nobody wants that, and I think it's likelier that Putin is deposed before he (successfully) orders a nuclear launch. The rumor is that Putin has given the order to take Kyiv by the end of Monday, and that's going to involve use of artillery and rockets indiscriminately against an urban environment, resulting in tons of civilian deaths. The nuclear readiness alert is to signal to the west not to interfere even amidst the carnage.

ctvo 5y ago
> That said, I think it's extremely unlikely this will escalate to a nuclear exchange. Tail risk is real. No one thought Trump would be president. No one saw the pandemic changing the world. No one thought there’d be conventional land war in Europe again. I hope nothing happens but I’ll withhold assigning likelihood for now.
- theshrike79 5y ago
  I'm relying on the fact that even though Putin seems to be completely unhinged and detached from reality, the people responsible for keeping Russian nukes working and managing their launch aren't.
  - mach1ne 5y ago
    That depends on how the system is organized. If there is a briefcase with a large red button, and the people in the silos don't know whether the launch is real or training, Putin's decision is literally the only factor.
- readme 5y ago
  s/No one/most people/
- withinboredom 5y ago
  > No one thought Trump would be president. Anyone who thought through the whole thing saw it as obvious he was. Republicans were thinking Democrats were going to show up in droves. Democrats thought no one would vote for Trump, so why vote?
rightbyte 5y ago
Russia could nuke some deserted island to show business without triggering a nuclear war. I don't think they are desperate enought yet though? Supposedly they argue they are winning.
- jowday 5y ago

robbiep 5y ago

Well basically it just means Germany is meeting its obligations under NATO to spend 2% on military - which they haven’t done for a very long time.

FabHK 5y ago
Yes, so that they now choose to follow that guideline still constitutes a considerable shift.

burntoutfire 5y ago

> Something you would just do if immediate and long-term danger is next door. Yep, it's called Russia, at least as long as Putin rules it.

glitchcrab 5y ago

You really think that he would launch a nuclear strike? Have you not heard of Mutually Assured Destruction? Sure, the consequences for the rest of us would be terrible but the moment he launches a strike then he's going to be on the receiving end of one too, and that would be disastrous for his country. The chance of this actually turning nuclear is infinitesimally small.

selfhoster11 5y ago
If he cares only about himself, and knows that he hasn't got that much time left on this earth, then he won't care about a possible atomic war.
- glitchcrab 5y ago
  He's already said that he's trying to build a legacy; it won't be much of a legacy if Russia is a nuclear wasteland. He's clearly living in an alternate reality to the rest of us, but I very much doubt that's how he wants to be remembered.
jack_squat 5y ago
In my opinion "infinitesimal" is too small. I think at this point a nuke strike is a bigger risk than covid, for most.
- glitchcrab 5y ago
  As long as nuclear weapons exist then there's always going to be an infinitesimally small chance that they will be used, so you must live your life in perpetual fear.
deleted 5y ago
[deleted]

withinboredom 5y ago

> or maybe even the US or Canada for 6 months and work from there. As an American in the EU, my entire family has been calling me for days to move back. Personally, I think its unlikely that Russia would nuke anyone in the EU. If anything, they would nuke the US. Plus, it's much more likely to die from some random shooting in the US than by a nuke any day of the week.

kypro 5y ago
They have enough nukes to nuke every city in NATO. Under no situation would they just nuke the US.
- baybal2 5y ago
  Russian first strike capability with land + sea based missiles is at most 1000 warheads. Clearly not enough.
  - jacquesm 5y ago
    And that is assuming they work, which estimates are very much varied about. Obviously Russia isn't going to help with verification here.

rootusrootus 5y ago

> I personally expect a smaller nuclear warning shot over the ocean from Putin next week. That would be an escalation so phenomenal it would completely overshadow everything that has happened in the past week. By a huge margin.

mach1ne 5y ago
Not if it's framed as a training excercise.
- rootusrootus 5y ago
  It would put Putin squarely in Kim Jong-Un territory, which seems like an odd choice on his part. Nobody doubts that he has functional nukes.
glitchcrab 5y ago
The amount of nonsense in these comments is genuinely astounding. The change in nuclear readiness from Putin is posturing; it's light years away from him actually pulling the trigger on MAD.

AnonymousPlanet 5y ago

If you are worried, maybe you should move. Closer to a primary target. You don't want to be alive for the aftermath. And yes, it's been on all of our minds and we all worry to some extent. But this is the one thing that none of us can preempt with the means of our small lives. There's nowhere to hide from it. Watch a nice movie and let others worry about it. Oh and welcome to the 80s.

nate_meurer 5y ago
My wife and I have talked about this before. How would we feel and what would we do if we knew nukes were incoming to our urban area dotted with military and government targets. We tentatively agreed we'd be in our backyard eating crepes and reading psalms, rather than hiding in the basement with respirators. But maybe that's just big talk. Reality might not be so clear cut.

jacquesm 5y ago

> No one seems to recognize what a massive shift this is. It is recognized loud and clear all over Europe.

baybal2 5y ago

> So Putin is so angry and feels threatend that he wants to overthrough Ukraine, and the answer is to make them a member of the EU? This screams like more aggressives answers from Putin. I personally expect a smaller nuclear warning shot over the ocean from Putin next week. There is an option: attack first. If Russian nuclear C&C is taken down, I doubt any of officers in the bunker would dare to launch. Even if they will, these would be uncoordinated launches, and nowhere near the size of a coordinated attack.

s5300 5y ago
Pretty sure the Perimeter is still alive & well, quietly waiting for this exact situation. Don’t think it’s a bluff.