4 ms·

we have been here before, a number of times, what we really need to pay attention to is how much putin has to lose. if he has nothing left then he is free to a

by rolph 5y ago

we have been here before, a number of times, what we really need to pay attention to is how much putin has to lose. if he has nothing left then he is free to act impulsively inline with whatever his moral standing may be. if he has some skin in the game then he will hesitate to play mumblty-peg https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mumblety-peg https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mumblety-peg

notreallyserio 5y ago
I don't know how much absolute power Putin has. Can he successfully launch a first strike attack? Would his circle and the chain of command follow the order promptly or is there a decent chance of a coup? I'd assume that at least some powerful oligarchs wouldn't be in favor of a nuclear war.
- rcurry 5y ago
  They probably can’t even find the keys to their missiles in the first place. “Damn it, they’re supposed to be on the hook next to the fridge - I told you never to move those!” “Did you check the junk drawer honey? What about in the garage with your fishing stuff?”
- Animats 5y ago
  In the USSR era, the Premier did not have the authority to start a nuclear war. That required either the permission of the Politburo or the detection of the destruction of Moscow with nuclear weapons. The USSR, post-Stalin, tried to avoid giving the Premier unlimited power. They'd had that with Stalin, and it didn't end well. That may not have persisted into the Putin era.
diego_moita 5y ago
So you still see Putin as a rational person? I wish I could see reasons to think like that. All I can see is a psychopathic megalomaniac.
- tunesmith 5y ago
  Everyone is rational from their own perspective. Putin doesn't see this as a world conflict, he sees it as Russia against the West.
- rolph 5y ago
  i see putin as a person that has motivations. the quality or origin of those motivations are instrumental. i am assuming he is motivated to not die; im assuming that he must feel as if others believe he is powerful. i am assuming that if he cant actualize these motivations, or enjoy the spoils of his efforts, he will lash out irrationally.
- osipov 5y ago

by rolph 5y ago

notreallyserio 5y ago

I don't know how much absolute power Putin has. Can he successfully launch a first strike attack? Would his circle and the chain of command follow the order promptly or is there a decent chance of a coup? I'd assume that at least some powerful oligarchs wouldn't be in favor of a nuclear war.

rcurry 5y ago
They probably can’t even find the keys to their missiles in the first place. “Damn it, they’re supposed to be on the hook next to the fridge - I told you never to move those!” “Did you check the junk drawer honey? What about in the garage with your fishing stuff?”
Animats 5y ago
In the USSR era, the Premier did not have the authority to start a nuclear war. That required either the permission of the Politburo or the detection of the destruction of Moscow with nuclear weapons. The USSR, post-Stalin, tried to avoid giving the Premier unlimited power. They'd had that with Stalin, and it didn't end well. That may not have persisted into the Putin era.

diego_moita 5y ago

So you still see Putin as a rational person? I wish I could see reasons to think like that. All I can see is a psychopathic megalomaniac.

tunesmith 5y ago
Everyone is rational from their own perspective. Putin doesn't see this as a world conflict, he sees it as Russia against the West.
rolph 5y ago
i see putin as a person that has motivations. the quality or origin of those motivations are instrumental. i am assuming he is motivated to not die; im assuming that he must feel as if others believe he is powerful. i am assuming that if he cant actualize these motivations, or enjoy the spoils of his efforts, he will lash out irrationally.
osipov 5y ago