8 ms·

I have a feeling BP will be paid back from a Russian war reparations package. Call it a hunch.

secondo 5y ago
I don’t get why’re being downvoted. Without doubt a series of governments were looped in on this decision - naively assuming one or several did not initiate it in the first place - to ensure alignment on current matters and there is no chance BP did not take the opportunity to ensure alignment on future matters.
- ascii_pasta 5y ago
  I have a feeling, call it a hunch. becuase the post adds nothing and is simply a post for the sake of posting.
  - iandanforth 5y ago
    FWIW I hadn't considered there would be a war reparations package that would benefit companies like this. So useful for the naive/ignorant?
agumonkey 5y ago
those frozen assets will ease the process I assume
rmbyrro 5y ago
Before that Russia would need to actually lose the war, which is highly unlikely, considering Ukraine is fighting on its own..
- buitreVirtual 5y ago
  BP and others could be still be paid from confiscated Russian assets in Europe.
  - yrgulation 5y ago
    Either that or the bet is that it collapses from within. After the soviet union collapsed, russia took over all soviet countries debts upon itself, effectively paying war reparations. Could be similar now. If there is a coup or some dramatic change it would pay some sort of penalties for the current war.
    - lazide 5y ago
      Unfortunately this whole scenario (including talk of reparations) is playing out a LOT like WW1 :(
      - CamperBob2 5y ago
        Not really. This is everyone else ganging up on one nation in particular, which has gone well out of its way to deserve a good ass-kicking.
- scottLobster 5y ago
  Ukraine is fighting with the open support of pretty much every advanced military in the developed world. They've got armed drones from Turkey, Javelins from the US/UK, the freaking EU of all organizations is saying they'll send them fighter jets. Even Germany is sending weapons. Combine that with the apparent intense Ukrainian morale and Russian military incompetence/lack of will, Ukraine winning is not entirely out of the question. Even if they lose they seem fully prepared to commit to an insurgency, which given said international support and direct borders with NATO would be the best equipped insurgency in history. Never mind the potential effects of the sanctions, which are truly massive in scope. Ukraine could very well be the rock that breaks Russia's teeth.
  - logifail 5y ago
    > the freaking EU of all organizations is saying they'll send them fighter jets For clarity, and despite Macron's urgings, the EU doesn't yet have an air force it can send anywhere. It does have the Common Security and Defence Policy[0]: "The CSDP involves the deployment of military or civilian missions to preserve peace, prevent conflict and strengthen international security in accordance with the principles of the United Nations Charter. Military missions are carried out by EU forces established with secondments from the member states' armed forces" [0] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Common_Security_and_Defence_Policy https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Common_Security_and_Defence_Po...
    - scottLobster 5y ago
      https://www.barrons.com/news/eu-countries-to-send-fighter-jets-to-ukraine-borrell-01645994409 https://www.barrons.com/news/eu-countries-to-send-fighter-je... It was the EU "High Representative of the Union for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy" speaking for various EU members.
    - anxrn 5y ago
      They appear to have said [1] they'll supply (finance + deliver) aircraft (which presumably the Ukrainians have the expertise to operate, per [2]). They have not said they'll send in an air force (operated by non-Ukrainians), which as you point out, they don't yet have. [1] https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/eu-close-airspace-russia-curb-media-target-belarus-2022-02-27/ https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/eu-close-airspace-russi... [2] https://www.barrons.com/news/eu-countries-to-send-fighter-jets-to-ukraine-borrell-01645994409 https://www.barrons.com/news/eu-countries-to-send-fighter-je...
- nunez 5y ago
  The US is giving Ukraine $600M in weapons on top of the €150M the EU is giving them; they are fighting on their own but they aren’t alone. Source: https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/europe/russia-ukraine-war-joe-biden-b2023821.html https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/europe/russia-ukrai...
- democracy 5y ago
  Ukraine is the second largest country in Europe with a patriotic motivated population (and military/reco support from the 1st world) against de-motivated, de-moralised enemy. I predict mass protests in Russia in the next months, overthrowing of the dictator, and a new government. Also a regime change in Belarus as a bonus. Glory to Ukraine!
  - hef19898 5y ago
    Other than I wouldn't call the Russian Army, or Russia, demoralized or unmotivated it's hard to tell how this will end. Even a quick, conventional, victory wouldn'tean much. Iraq and Afghanistan told us that much.
  - BuckRogers 5y ago
    And many Americans are heading to the nearest Ukrainian embassy to join the Ukrainian Foreign Legion. I’m heading over tomorrow to interview to join the fight. America is the greatest force for freedom in the world and I’m putting my money where my mouth is.
- CamperBob2 5y ago
  What will happen is basically what's happening now, regardless of the occupation status or any supposed "victory" conditions defined by Russia. Arms and ammunition will flow into Ukraine via its western border, and wounded and dead Russians will flow out via its eastern border. The only two ways Russia can stop this process are by executing a full retreat or using nuclear weapons. Failing either of those, Russia will run out of soldiers before the rest of us run out of arms and ammunition. They will not -- cannot -- be allowed to win, and the rest of the civilized world will make certain that they don't.
- onlyrealcuzzo 5y ago
  Right... The US and NATO couldn't conquer Afghanistan (or Russia 20 years prior)... Afghanistan had virtually no army, no allies, and was one of the poorest countries in the world. But Russia is going to conquer Ukraine, which is substantially larger, has a bigger population, a more heavily armed population, and - arguably - the world's 4th best military?? Plus Ukraine has full support from the entire advanced world beside Brazil, India, and China. And Russia has the support of only Belarus - which has a military budget smaller than the military aid the US has sent Ukraine in the last 2 weeks... This is an unwinnable war. Leave it to the Soviet Union to bankrupt themselves...
  - sharpy 5y ago
    When USSR fell in late 1991, yes, Ukraine did have 4th largest military in the world, and 3rd largest nuclear arsenal. But that is such a long time ago. Just look at what happened in 2014 when Crimea got annexed. Afghanistan is also very different story than Ukraine. First there is the question of logistics. 75% of the terrain is mountainous and 50% of the country has elevation greater than 6500 ft [1]. This makes it quite the challenge for any would be invaders. Compare that to Ukraine where only 5% of the country is [2], and is also a lot closer to Russian center of power. I do hope that with what support Ukraine is getting will enable them to give bloody enough nose to Russians that they decide it's not worth it. But given the thinly veiled threat to use nuclear weapons, I fear things will get worse, not better. And before someone says that Mr. Putin is not crazy enough to escalate that far, most people thought he wouldn't actually attack in the first place, and threatening with nuclear weapons can only be seen as an act of weakness, coming out of desperation, and desperate people do desperate things. [1] https://worldpopulationreview.com/country-rankings/most-mountainous-countries https://worldpopulationreview.com/country-rankings/most-moun... [2] https://www.britannica.com/place/Ukraine https://www.britannica.com/place/Ukraine
    - hef19898 5y ago
      Crimea was 7, 8 years ago. Ukraine, and their allies, had quite sometime to prepare. Maybe NATO was pre-occupied with other things for a while, Ukraine certainly was not. Don't forget, Ukraine and Russia share a lot of military history, equipment, training and doctrine. Those enemies know each other very well.
- graphpercolator 5y ago
  I really think you underestimate what we just did to their financial system. Everyone's savings have been destroyed and they had to hike rates to 20%. Russia didn't even open the stock market for trading so that is just going to make things worse. Cutting them off from SWIFT means banks are practically useless. The whole economy is basically in a free fall right now.

I don’t get why’re being downvoted. Without doubt a series of governments were looped in on this decision - naively assuming one or several did not initiate it in the first place - to ensure alignment on current matters and there is no chance BP did not take the opportunity to ensure alignment on future matters.

ascii_pasta 5y ago
I have a feeling, call it a hunch. becuase the post adds nothing and is simply a post for the sake of posting.
- iandanforth 5y ago
  FWIW I hadn't considered there would be a war reparations package that would benefit companies like this. So useful for the naive/ignorant?

agumonkey 5y ago

those frozen assets will ease the process I assume

rmbyrro 5y ago

Before that Russia would need to actually lose the war, which is highly unlikely, considering Ukraine is fighting on its own..

buitreVirtual 5y ago
BP and others could be still be paid from confiscated Russian assets in Europe.
- yrgulation 5y ago
  Either that or the bet is that it collapses from within. After the soviet union collapsed, russia took over all soviet countries debts upon itself, effectively paying war reparations. Could be similar now. If there is a coup or some dramatic change it would pay some sort of penalties for the current war.
  - lazide 5y ago
    Unfortunately this whole scenario (including talk of reparations) is playing out a LOT like WW1 :(
    - CamperBob2 5y ago
      Not really. This is everyone else ganging up on one nation in particular, which has gone well out of its way to deserve a good ass-kicking.
scottLobster 5y ago
Ukraine is fighting with the open support of pretty much every advanced military in the developed world. They've got armed drones from Turkey, Javelins from the US/UK, the freaking EU of all organizations is saying they'll send them fighter jets. Even Germany is sending weapons. Combine that with the apparent intense Ukrainian morale and Russian military incompetence/lack of will, Ukraine winning is not entirely out of the question. Even if they lose they seem fully prepared to commit to an insurgency, which given said international support and direct borders with NATO would be the best equipped insurgency in history. Never mind the potential effects of the sanctions, which are truly massive in scope. Ukraine could very well be the rock that breaks Russia's teeth.
- logifail 5y ago
  > the freaking EU of all organizations is saying they'll send them fighter jets For clarity, and despite Macron's urgings, the EU doesn't yet have an air force it can send anywhere. It does have the Common Security and Defence Policy[0]: "The CSDP involves the deployment of military or civilian missions to preserve peace, prevent conflict and strengthen international security in accordance with the principles of the United Nations Charter. Military missions are carried out by EU forces established with secondments from the member states' armed forces" [0] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Common_Security_and_Defence_Policy https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Common_Security_and_Defence_Po...
  - scottLobster 5y ago
    https://www.barrons.com/news/eu-countries-to-send-fighter-jets-to-ukraine-borrell-01645994409 https://www.barrons.com/news/eu-countries-to-send-fighter-je... It was the EU "High Representative of the Union for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy" speaking for various EU members.
  - anxrn 5y ago
    They appear to have said [1] they'll supply (finance + deliver) aircraft (which presumably the Ukrainians have the expertise to operate, per [2]). They have not said they'll send in an air force (operated by non-Ukrainians), which as you point out, they don't yet have. [1] https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/eu-close-airspace-russia-curb-media-target-belarus-2022-02-27/ https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/eu-close-airspace-russi... [2] https://www.barrons.com/news/eu-countries-to-send-fighter-jets-to-ukraine-borrell-01645994409 https://www.barrons.com/news/eu-countries-to-send-fighter-je...
nunez 5y ago
The US is giving Ukraine $600M in weapons on top of the €150M the EU is giving them; they are fighting on their own but they aren’t alone. Source: https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/europe/russia-ukraine-war-joe-biden-b2023821.html https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/europe/russia-ukrai...
democracy 5y ago
Ukraine is the second largest country in Europe with a patriotic motivated population (and military/reco support from the 1st world) against de-motivated, de-moralised enemy. I predict mass protests in Russia in the next months, overthrowing of the dictator, and a new government. Also a regime change in Belarus as a bonus. Glory to Ukraine!
- hef19898 5y ago
  Other than I wouldn't call the Russian Army, or Russia, demoralized or unmotivated it's hard to tell how this will end. Even a quick, conventional, victory wouldn'tean much. Iraq and Afghanistan told us that much.
- BuckRogers 5y ago
  And many Americans are heading to the nearest Ukrainian embassy to join the Ukrainian Foreign Legion. I’m heading over tomorrow to interview to join the fight. America is the greatest force for freedom in the world and I’m putting my money where my mouth is.
CamperBob2 5y ago
What will happen is basically what's happening now, regardless of the occupation status or any supposed "victory" conditions defined by Russia. Arms and ammunition will flow into Ukraine via its western border, and wounded and dead Russians will flow out via its eastern border. The only two ways Russia can stop this process are by executing a full retreat or using nuclear weapons. Failing either of those, Russia will run out of soldiers before the rest of us run out of arms and ammunition. They will not -- cannot -- be allowed to win, and the rest of the civilized world will make certain that they don't.
onlyrealcuzzo 5y ago
Right... The US and NATO couldn't conquer Afghanistan (or Russia 20 years prior)... Afghanistan had virtually no army, no allies, and was one of the poorest countries in the world. But Russia is going to conquer Ukraine, which is substantially larger, has a bigger population, a more heavily armed population, and - arguably - the world's 4th best military?? Plus Ukraine has full support from the entire advanced world beside Brazil, India, and China. And Russia has the support of only Belarus - which has a military budget smaller than the military aid the US has sent Ukraine in the last 2 weeks... This is an unwinnable war. Leave it to the Soviet Union to bankrupt themselves...
- sharpy 5y ago
  When USSR fell in late 1991, yes, Ukraine did have 4th largest military in the world, and 3rd largest nuclear arsenal. But that is such a long time ago. Just look at what happened in 2014 when Crimea got annexed. Afghanistan is also very different story than Ukraine. First there is the question of logistics. 75% of the terrain is mountainous and 50% of the country has elevation greater than 6500 ft [1]. This makes it quite the challenge for any would be invaders. Compare that to Ukraine where only 5% of the country is [2], and is also a lot closer to Russian center of power. I do hope that with what support Ukraine is getting will enable them to give bloody enough nose to Russians that they decide it's not worth it. But given the thinly veiled threat to use nuclear weapons, I fear things will get worse, not better. And before someone says that Mr. Putin is not crazy enough to escalate that far, most people thought he wouldn't actually attack in the first place, and threatening with nuclear weapons can only be seen as an act of weakness, coming out of desperation, and desperate people do desperate things. [1] https://worldpopulationreview.com/country-rankings/most-mountainous-countries https://worldpopulationreview.com/country-rankings/most-moun... [2] https://www.britannica.com/place/Ukraine https://www.britannica.com/place/Ukraine
  - hef19898 5y ago
    Crimea was 7, 8 years ago. Ukraine, and their allies, had quite sometime to prepare. Maybe NATO was pre-occupied with other things for a while, Ukraine certainly was not. Don't forget, Ukraine and Russia share a lot of military history, equipment, training and doctrine. Those enemies know each other very well.
graphpercolator 5y ago
I really think you underestimate what we just did to their financial system. Everyone's savings have been destroyed and they had to hike rates to 20%. Russia didn't even open the stock market for trading so that is just going to make things worse. Cutting them off from SWIFT means banks are practically useless. The whole economy is basically in a free fall right now.