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It will take a decade to reduce their energy dependence.

thelittleone 5y ago
Source? Genuinely curious. Surprised EU membership doesnt mandate controls on economic dependency.
ajross 5y ago
Less, if Russia resolves its governmental intemperance first. The events of the last few days make it at least plausible that Putin's days are numbered. If so, that's very bad in terms of absolute apocalyptic risk, but probably a good thing as measured by expected outcome. The chances of getting a stable democracy in the next decade might be, I dunno, 40% or greater (and those of dying in a nuclear fireball surely under 1%, right?). So as geopolitics it's probably a mistake, but as investment decisionmaking I think it makes sense.
- rich_sasha 5y ago
  Russia has basically never had a democratic government, perhaps except during the 90s. There is no tradition of it. It’s current form of government is more like the fiefdoms of Tsarist Russia: the Tsar giveth and the Tsar giveth away. Russian may want democracy (though do we know that they do?), but there’s more than just Putin in the way.
  - rsynnott 5y ago
    I mean, there was no tradition of democracy in Korea or China, but South Korea and Taiwan transitioned reasonably successfully to democracy in the 80s and 90s respectively. It has been done. For that matter, a number of Soviet successor states are successfully functioning democracies.
    - thow-58d4e8b 5y ago
      Not sure about South Korea, but Taiwan's democracy is kind of a joke. Since the end of the WW2, the grand total of the number of parties holding power is...two - DPP and KMT. There are no differences between them in foreign affairs. Both favor wage suppression policies. Both favor currency manipulation to suppress consumption in order to help exporters. None of them is doing anything about the worst housing crisis in the world, leading to a demographic suicide of the country - fertility rate is below 1.3 for 20 years and counting. In many way, it's a choice between Pepsi and Coca-cola
      - klyrs 5y ago
        So, it's a joke largely in the same way that democracy is a joke in the united states.
        ozfive 5y ago
        Absolutely and Americans are waking up to this fact now with a terrorist faction taking power in the Republican party.
        Applejinx 5y ago
        But would this faction be as terrorist as they are without extensive Russian effort to ensure that they are? I'm skeptical. Given that this is hardly unique to the US, I think Russia is reaping the whirlwind: they've been up to this sort of thing pretty much everywhere. This is not the WWIII. They have been waging the WWIII already, this whole time, in relatively novel ways, with a lot of success… until now. And it's been the kind of success that is short-sighted: got their way again and again at the cost of building enormous hostility, which is now rebounding upon them. Russia made this bed and all of this is not that much of a surprise, really.
        rnk 5y ago
        The potential has been there to go way out crazy in the Republican party for a long time, remember Pat Buchanan? He was a legit threat, but didn't have the crazy wacko charisma that Trump has, that dictator tough guy thing down that appeals to so many conservatives apparently. The thing I suspect Russia did do was take advantage of facebook and q-anon type stuff.
    - oblio 5y ago
      Well, you could say that for sure it can be done, because we didn't really have democracies before 1776, excluding some super short and unstable versions, and democracies with universal suffrage are even newer, after about 1900. According to the Democracy Index, ~75 countries are full or flawed democracies, so 75 countries made the leap.
      - rich_sasha 5y ago
        Most strong democracies were born through a very long and drawn out process of democratisation. UK Houses of Parliament date back to 13th century; of course at that point there was no democracy, but a tradition of open debate on government is very old. In fact in the UK it’s probably hard to pinpoint where real monarchy ended and democracy started. The monarch had less and less power over time, and an increasingly wide circle of privileged voters held more and more power. Many struggling democracies had to make that leap much more quickly and often the failures of democracy are to do with the cultural remains of the previous systems.
        stormbrew 5y ago
        > In fact in the UK it’s probably hard to pinpoint where real monarchy ended and democracy started. I would put it more or less around Oliver Cromwell's tenure, even though the monarchy enjoyed some resurgence in power after the monarchy was restored it was short lived and the threat of parliament removing an unruly monarch, as they had done fairly decisively, became a real constraint on their power. The struggles around that were also significant inspirations to French and American revolutions that followed.
      - nickysielicki 5y ago
        Poland would like a word: https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Golden_Liberty https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Golden_Liberty
    - deleted 5y ago
      [deleted]
  - thow-58d4e8b 5y ago
    Russia in the 90s wasn't a true democracy either. US press liked to depict Yeltsin as a democrat because he was weak and subservient, but his methods of power were deeply autocratic. Yeltsin ordered artillery shelling of the parliament in 1993, killing 140 people. Had elections in 1996 been fair, they'd highly likely mean the return of the Communist Party to power, so he rigged them in all sorts of grotesque ways (naturally, western leaders praised him for it). As his incompetence grew more and more untenable, he threw the hot potato to Putin and resigned
    - vkou 5y ago
      This is largely accurate - and it's also worth mentioning that 90s Russia was an absolute hell-hole. Whether people approve or disapprove of Putin, a lot of them remember what life was like before he became Tsar-for-life, and it isn't something that most of them want to tangle with again.
  - paganel 5y ago
    > perhaps except during the 90s. And that proved to be one of the most disastrous decades in Russian history (I think only surpassed by the 1940s that saw them getting invaded by Hitler), so democracy doesn't have too much solid ground to stand on when it comes to Russia.
- trhway 5y ago
  >Russia resolves its governmental intemperance first i see the history of the last 30+ years as clear indication that Russian society is progressively becoming less and less able to manage large issues. As result i think there is high probability that Russia will breakup after that catastrophe of Ukraine war similar to USSR after Afghanistan (the key to such breakup isn't external forces, instead it is clear disillusionment with existing power). For example, the Far East in particular has no good connection to Russia (and Putin was basically trying to buy them up by sending money which will definitely become problematic once the war related bills, like compensation to Ukraine, start to hit the treasure) while say getting high-speed rail Vladivostok-Dalyan/Bejing would include it into the Pacific ring of the future boom of economic development.
  - petre 5y ago
    China is already buying off ex Soviet satellites like Kyrgystan and Mongolia. Kazahstan is also economically dependent on China. If Japan is given any reason to rearm itself to the teeth again (like a Chinese invasion of Taiwan) and Russia breaks up, they'll almost certainly retake Sakhalin and Kurlil islands back. The rest will probably all become China satellites, except maybe for South Korea.
    - rnk 5y ago
      I'm hoping that Russia actually attacking Ukraine against the strong wishes of the world will cause a similar desire to reign in China and protect Taiwan and other small country democracies. Strategic ambiguity didn't work in Ukraine and it won't work in Taiwan either. Eventually China will attack. So let's get over our fear there and just sign a mutual defense treaty. Ideally we form a NATO of the Pacific with SK, Japan, Australia, NZ, and many other small countries. It would drive China bat shit insane with anger, but they are just going to do what they want eventually unless we get together and stop them.
- jmnicolas 5y ago
  > The events of the last few days make it at least plausible that Putin's days are numbered. Citation needed. I believe Putin enjoys a very strong approval in Russia and I have never read or see anything that could disprove it (except from self styled experts that are notoriously clueless about everything). For a comparison there were just hundreds of protestors in Moscow on a 12 millions pop. This is nothing. I visited quite a few Russian blogs with the help of a translation plugin, I didn't see anything looking like they disapprove, on the contrary most of them ask why it took 8 years.
  - digitalsushi 5y ago
    Does someone sharing their opinion that something is possible need a citation?
    - chihuahua 5y ago
      Indeed, how could there possibly be a citation for the possibility that his days are numbered? Demanding a citation for a future event does not make sense.
    - deleted 5y ago
      [deleted]
    - jmnicolas 5y ago
      Yes when it's outlandish from the known reality. I don't need citation for "there are people in Russia that don't like Putin" but I need one when "his days are numbered". I (try to) look at the world like it is, not like I want it to be. Thinking that Putin days are numbered (be it by the people or his security apparatus) is delusional. If it is not, then back it up with something, I have no problem correcting my views when confronted with good data.
  - bnlxbnlx 5y ago
    from what i read anti-war protesters in russia get arrested. so the threshold to show one’s disapproval with the invasion is fairly high.
- jacquesm 5y ago
  > If so, that's very bad in terms of absolute apocalyptic risk, but probably a good thing as measured by expected outcome. That's beautifully put, so concise.

Source? Genuinely curious. Surprised EU membership doesnt mandate controls on economic dependency.

Less, if Russia resolves its governmental intemperance first. The events of the last few days make it at least plausible that Putin's days are numbered. If so, that's very bad in terms of absolute apocalyptic risk, but probably a good thing as measured by expected outcome. The chances of getting a stable democracy in the next decade might be, I dunno, 40% or greater (and those of dying in a nuclear fireball surely under 1%, right?). So as geopolitics it's probably a mistake, but as investment decisionmaking I think it makes sense.

rich_sasha 5y ago
Russia has basically never had a democratic government, perhaps except during the 90s. There is no tradition of it. It’s current form of government is more like the fiefdoms of Tsarist Russia: the Tsar giveth and the Tsar giveth away. Russian may want democracy (though do we know that they do?), but there’s more than just Putin in the way.
- rsynnott 5y ago
  I mean, there was no tradition of democracy in Korea or China, but South Korea and Taiwan transitioned reasonably successfully to democracy in the 80s and 90s respectively. It has been done. For that matter, a number of Soviet successor states are successfully functioning democracies.
  - thow-58d4e8b 5y ago
    Not sure about South Korea, but Taiwan's democracy is kind of a joke. Since the end of the WW2, the grand total of the number of parties holding power is...two - DPP and KMT. There are no differences between them in foreign affairs. Both favor wage suppression policies. Both favor currency manipulation to suppress consumption in order to help exporters. None of them is doing anything about the worst housing crisis in the world, leading to a demographic suicide of the country - fertility rate is below 1.3 for 20 years and counting. In many way, it's a choice between Pepsi and Coca-cola
    - klyrs 5y ago
      So, it's a joke largely in the same way that democracy is a joke in the united states.
      - ozfive 5y ago
        Absolutely and Americans are waking up to this fact now with a terrorist faction taking power in the Republican party.
        Applejinx 5y ago
        But would this faction be as terrorist as they are without extensive Russian effort to ensure that they are? I'm skeptical. Given that this is hardly unique to the US, I think Russia is reaping the whirlwind: they've been up to this sort of thing pretty much everywhere. This is not the WWIII. They have been waging the WWIII already, this whole time, in relatively novel ways, with a lot of success… until now. And it's been the kind of success that is short-sighted: got their way again and again at the cost of building enormous hostility, which is now rebounding upon them. Russia made this bed and all of this is not that much of a surprise, really.
        rnk 5y ago
        The potential has been there to go way out crazy in the Republican party for a long time, remember Pat Buchanan? He was a legit threat, but didn't have the crazy wacko charisma that Trump has, that dictator tough guy thing down that appeals to so many conservatives apparently. The thing I suspect Russia did do was take advantage of facebook and q-anon type stuff.
  - oblio 5y ago
    Well, you could say that for sure it can be done, because we didn't really have democracies before 1776, excluding some super short and unstable versions, and democracies with universal suffrage are even newer, after about 1900. According to the Democracy Index, ~75 countries are full or flawed democracies, so 75 countries made the leap.
    - rich_sasha 5y ago
      Most strong democracies were born through a very long and drawn out process of democratisation. UK Houses of Parliament date back to 13th century; of course at that point there was no democracy, but a tradition of open debate on government is very old. In fact in the UK it’s probably hard to pinpoint where real monarchy ended and democracy started. The monarch had less and less power over time, and an increasingly wide circle of privileged voters held more and more power. Many struggling democracies had to make that leap much more quickly and often the failures of democracy are to do with the cultural remains of the previous systems.
      - stormbrew 5y ago
        > In fact in the UK it’s probably hard to pinpoint where real monarchy ended and democracy started. I would put it more or less around Oliver Cromwell's tenure, even though the monarchy enjoyed some resurgence in power after the monarchy was restored it was short lived and the threat of parliament removing an unruly monarch, as they had done fairly decisively, became a real constraint on their power. The struggles around that were also significant inspirations to French and American revolutions that followed.
    - nickysielicki 5y ago
      Poland would like a word: https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Golden_Liberty https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Golden_Liberty
  - deleted 5y ago
    [deleted]
- thow-58d4e8b 5y ago
  Russia in the 90s wasn't a true democracy either. US press liked to depict Yeltsin as a democrat because he was weak and subservient, but his methods of power were deeply autocratic. Yeltsin ordered artillery shelling of the parliament in 1993, killing 140 people. Had elections in 1996 been fair, they'd highly likely mean the return of the Communist Party to power, so he rigged them in all sorts of grotesque ways (naturally, western leaders praised him for it). As his incompetence grew more and more untenable, he threw the hot potato to Putin and resigned
  - vkou 5y ago
    This is largely accurate - and it's also worth mentioning that 90s Russia was an absolute hell-hole. Whether people approve or disapprove of Putin, a lot of them remember what life was like before he became Tsar-for-life, and it isn't something that most of them want to tangle with again.
- paganel 5y ago
  > perhaps except during the 90s. And that proved to be one of the most disastrous decades in Russian history (I think only surpassed by the 1940s that saw them getting invaded by Hitler), so democracy doesn't have too much solid ground to stand on when it comes to Russia.
trhway 5y ago
>Russia resolves its governmental intemperance first i see the history of the last 30+ years as clear indication that Russian society is progressively becoming less and less able to manage large issues. As result i think there is high probability that Russia will breakup after that catastrophe of Ukraine war similar to USSR after Afghanistan (the key to such breakup isn't external forces, instead it is clear disillusionment with existing power). For example, the Far East in particular has no good connection to Russia (and Putin was basically trying to buy them up by sending money which will definitely become problematic once the war related bills, like compensation to Ukraine, start to hit the treasure) while say getting high-speed rail Vladivostok-Dalyan/Bejing would include it into the Pacific ring of the future boom of economic development.
- petre 5y ago
  China is already buying off ex Soviet satellites like Kyrgystan and Mongolia. Kazahstan is also economically dependent on China. If Japan is given any reason to rearm itself to the teeth again (like a Chinese invasion of Taiwan) and Russia breaks up, they'll almost certainly retake Sakhalin and Kurlil islands back. The rest will probably all become China satellites, except maybe for South Korea.
  - rnk 5y ago
    I'm hoping that Russia actually attacking Ukraine against the strong wishes of the world will cause a similar desire to reign in China and protect Taiwan and other small country democracies. Strategic ambiguity didn't work in Ukraine and it won't work in Taiwan either. Eventually China will attack. So let's get over our fear there and just sign a mutual defense treaty. Ideally we form a NATO of the Pacific with SK, Japan, Australia, NZ, and many other small countries. It would drive China bat shit insane with anger, but they are just going to do what they want eventually unless we get together and stop them.
jmnicolas 5y ago
> The events of the last few days make it at least plausible that Putin's days are numbered. Citation needed. I believe Putin enjoys a very strong approval in Russia and I have never read or see anything that could disprove it (except from self styled experts that are notoriously clueless about everything). For a comparison there were just hundreds of protestors in Moscow on a 12 millions pop. This is nothing. I visited quite a few Russian blogs with the help of a translation plugin, I didn't see anything looking like they disapprove, on the contrary most of them ask why it took 8 years.
- digitalsushi 5y ago
  Does someone sharing their opinion that something is possible need a citation?
  - chihuahua 5y ago
    Indeed, how could there possibly be a citation for the possibility that his days are numbered? Demanding a citation for a future event does not make sense.
  - deleted 5y ago
    [deleted]
  - jmnicolas 5y ago
    Yes when it's outlandish from the known reality. I don't need citation for "there are people in Russia that don't like Putin" but I need one when "his days are numbered". I (try to) look at the world like it is, not like I want it to be. Thinking that Putin days are numbered (be it by the people or his security apparatus) is delusional. If it is not, then back it up with something, I have no problem correcting my views when confronted with good data.
- bnlxbnlx 5y ago
  from what i read anti-war protesters in russia get arrested. so the threshold to show one’s disapproval with the invasion is fairly high.
jacquesm 5y ago
> If so, that's very bad in terms of absolute apocalyptic risk, but probably a good thing as measured by expected outcome. That's beautifully put, so concise.