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Some things I didn't knew, thanks. One of the reasons that Putin now picked a war, was that joining NATO/EU was now anchored in the Ukrainian law - https://www
by NicoJuicy 5y ago
Some things I didn't knew, thanks.
One of the reasons that Putin now picked a war, was that joining NATO/EU was now anchored in the Ukrainian law - https://www.voanews.com/a/ukraine-amends-constitution-to-cement-eu-nato-course/4776669.html https://www.voanews.com/a/ukraine-amends-constitution-to-cem... . Occupying those areas would immediately halt any possability to enter the NATO, which is what Putin wanted to prevent.
Are you sure those areas are still as Russophone as you think? As far as i'm aware, it dropped after the gray zone invasion, eg. https://news.gallup.com/poll/180110/ukrainian-approval-russia-leadership-dives-almost.aspx https://news.gallup.com/poll/180110/ukrainian-approval-russi...
By coïnsidence, the occupied territories were also nearby the Black Sea. Which was very important for Russia's naval fleet.
I do think that you are mistaking the importance of Ukraine for Russia (otherwise they wouldn't have gone to war). They gave Ukraine their autonomy, which they already couldn't deny fyi, in the expectation that they wouldn't go away from Russia. Which was at the time a reasonable expection ( puppet governement + many Russia/Ukraine relatives on both sides). I wouldn't underestimate the will to fix those "historic regrets" for a dictator.
Either way, Russia is already (partially) moving it's attention to Asian gas exports instead of Europe. So I'm not convinced that keeping Ukraine ( and going to war for it) would make much sense on a long term plan, if it's gas related.
Nordstream II was already outside of Ukraine influence and now it's probably totally broken.
Edit: The POV of Turkey might be aligned with what i think:
https://warontherocks.com/2022/02/what-russias-new-reality-means-for-turkey/ https://warontherocks.com/2022/02/what-russias-new-reality-m...
> Sanctions against Russia wouldn’t work. They only postpone problems. It is better to listen to other side and understand their strategic concerns. Russia feels threatened by NATO. Putin wants to redraw borders and renew strategic alliances 30 years after the USSR’s collapse.