3 ms·
LCOE calculated for intermittent sources (solar, wind) isn't really comparable with LCOE calculated for dispatchable or baseload sources (hydro, gas, coal, nucl
by travisb 5y ago
LCOE calculated for intermittent sources (solar, wind) isn't really comparable with LCOE calculated for dispatchable or baseload sources (hydro, gas, coal, nuclear) though.
LCOE is (lifetime costs)/(lifetime generation), but the value of that generation is very different between intermittent sources and dispatchable sources and the difference is very important at grid scale.
For example, solar has become quite cheap -- when the sun is shining. At midnight the cost per KWh from solar is infinite. The cost per KWh for a coal plant, however, doesn't really change based on the time of day. This distinction isn't captured by LCOE.
That distinction is important because grid per-KWh costs are a weighted average of generation costs. Mathematically, that cost correlates nearly perfectly when most of the generation is supplied by baseload generation. LCOE and actual grid per-KWh cost correlates well when most of the generation is arbitrarily dispatchable. The simple numerical average LCOE correlates poorly to average grid per-KWh cost when much of the generation is intermittent if that intermittent supply doesn't line up well with demand.
For example, from your link if you want a solar system which provides power overnight, you need to sum up the generating cost (busy charging the batteries during the day) with matching storage cost. From your link utility solar ($30-$41) plus wholesale four hour (100MW/400MWh) storage ($131-$232) results in a "windless night" cost of $161-$273 which compares unfavourably with coal ($65-$152) and very unfavourably with gas combined cycle ($45-$74).
https://www.energyforgrowth.org/memo/lcoe-and-its-limitations/ https://www.energyforgrowth.org/memo/lcoe-and-its-limitation...