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As you can buy/sell currencies back and forth between each o other--and <$10M isn't going to move the market horribly if you spend a day or two doing it--the me

by saurik 5y ago

As you can buy/sell currencies back and forth between each o other--and <$10M isn't going to move the market horribly if you spend a day or two doing it--the mental model of only doing this analysis because the money happened to be collected in a volatile currency is flawed: the decision to hold on to a volatile currency is equivalent to the decision to buy that currency as you "may as well have" just sold it and re-evaluated your position.

themodelplumber 5y ago
> the mental model of only doing this analysis because the money happened to be collected in a volatile currency That's your assumption; why not ask a question instead? > the decision to hold on to a volatile currency is equivalent to the decision to buy that currency This conflates a possible comparison based on assumptive logic with a probability based on circumstances you either don't know, haven't introduced, or don't care to ask about. Why do that?
- saurik 5y ago
  > That's your assumption; why not ask a question instead? Because I am not attempting to ask something: I am attempting to correct something. > This conflates a possible comparison based on assumptive logic with a probability based on circumstances you either don't know, haven't introduced, or don't care to ask about. Why do that? The reason to do that analysis is because to not do it leads to initial-situational-specific madness: the idea that this money they received could someday be worth $70M, and that you wouldn't be saying this had they received dollars via PayPal or something, is akin to the people who claim "you must be sad you purchased a candy bar with your Bitcoin back in 2012", which is clearly non-sensical: it entirely ignores that value exists in the moment and the decision to not do something IS a decision.
  - themodelplumber 5y ago
    > I am attempting to correct something. No, you don't even know what you're correcting is objectively there to correct. "You wouldn't otherwise do X" is not a fact, it's an assumption: > that you wouldn't be saying this had they received dollars via PayPal or something That's not logic. It's a guess. A guessumption. I think it would be easier to correct someone by being polite, asking questions, and even if failing that, being logical. Your reasoning is nonsensical, based on guesswork, and leaves out very important details.

by saurik 5y ago

themodelplumber 5y ago

> the mental model of only doing this analysis because the money happened to be collected in a volatile currency That's your assumption; why not ask a question instead? > the decision to hold on to a volatile currency is equivalent to the decision to buy that currency This conflates a possible comparison based on assumptive logic with a probability based on circumstances you either don't know, haven't introduced, or don't care to ask about. Why do that?

saurik 5y ago
> That's your assumption; why not ask a question instead? Because I am not attempting to ask something: I am attempting to correct something. > This conflates a possible comparison based on assumptive logic with a probability based on circumstances you either don't know, haven't introduced, or don't care to ask about. Why do that? The reason to do that analysis is because to not do it leads to initial-situational-specific madness: the idea that this money they received could someday be worth $70M, and that you wouldn't be saying this had they received dollars via PayPal or something, is akin to the people who claim "you must be sad you purchased a candy bar with your Bitcoin back in 2012", which is clearly non-sensical: it entirely ignores that value exists in the moment and the decision to not do something IS a decision.
- themodelplumber 5y ago
  > I am attempting to correct something. No, you don't even know what you're correcting is objectively there to correct. "You wouldn't otherwise do X" is not a fact, it's an assumption: > that you wouldn't be saying this had they received dollars via PayPal or something That's not logic. It's a guess. A guessumption. I think it would be easier to correct someone by being polite, asking questions, and even if failing that, being logical. Your reasoning is nonsensical, based on guesswork, and leaves out very important details.