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Assuming we’re all still alive by 2038 :-) With all these things happening recently and with the further problems due to: climate change, pandemics, energy cris
by NKosmatos 5y ago
Assuming we’re all still alive by 2038 :-) With all these things happening recently and with the further problems due to: climate change, pandemics, energy crisis, global warming, economy problems, conflicts between superpowers and all the rest, forecasting 16 years ahead is a little bit tricky (to put it lightly).
- imoverclocked 5y agoAlmost all, if not all, of the things you list as imminent problems were foreseen before they were imminent.
- echelon 5y agoI don't know about the other problems OP listed, but nuclear annihilation seems more probable now than any time since the cold war. We'd almost forgotten about the problem until recently. A cornered, unhinged, elderly dictator with access to a huge nuclear arsenal does not give me comfort.
- vlovich123 5y agoI’ll put any amount of money down that Putin won’t deploy nuclear force unless Russia’s territory is invaded (this includes anything he’s annexed and claimed as his)
- vba616 5y ago>this includes anything he’s annexed and claimed as his Do you have any thoughts on what/whom will be next?
- vlovich123 5y agoGoing by the Foundations of Geopolitics book which seems to capture the strategy so far pretty well AFAICT, the candidates could be Finland & Mongolia? It's not just about direct annexation. A bulk of the work is in creating an indirect sphere of influence to avoid Germany's problem of having the rest of the world coalesce against them.
- Piskvorrr 5y agoThat effort seems to have imploded this past week. shrug
- rocqua 5y agoIf he is starting to lose the internal power struggle, as we hope sanctions might cause, I could imagine Putin reaching for one final trick to stay in power. That trick could be "we'll just win the war in Ukraine with some tactical nukes". Or maybe "if I beat America (by nukes) they will respect me again in the Kremlin".
- mellavora 5y agoI would to, because either: - Putin doesn't go nuclear and I win the bet - Putin does go nuclear and you aren't able to collect from me. Heads I win, tails you lose.
- LorenPechtel 5y agoI committed a 2038 bug probably 25 years ago. A salesman found it the hard way fat-fingering a job into the 2060s. You don't have to reach the trigger date to set these things off, anything that looks to the future can trip them. (I knew it wouldn't work past 2038, I didn't realize it would keep anyone from seeing the production schedule if it contained an offending job.)
- throwawayboise 5y agoAny code dealing with 30-year mortgages or bond maturities has had to deal with this since at least 2008.
- Piskvorrr 5y agoYup. Working with long-term...contracts...in a database, this has brought us considerable panic then. 30-year default expiration, indeed.
- davidmurdoch 5y agoI recently fixed a 2038 bug in Ethereum simulation software I work on.
- vlunkr 5y agoWe've survived all that before. (Well, different kinds of climate change)
- mellavora 5y agoYes, like when the Tonga volcano wiped out all but what was probably a small tribe of humans, perhaps 1K people, from whom we are ALL descended. (70K yrs ago). Personally, I would prefer not to reset to 1K humans on the planet.
- NavinF 5y agoMost people, even those who self-select to participate in discussions about such risks, place a 3% probability of any of that killing a large chunk of humanity: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2568/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-seriesresults-so-far/ https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2568/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-s...