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Convince me it won't be largely a nothing burger like the Y2K problem? My guess is in 2037 everyone will frantically test their systems and make some patches a

Convince me it won't be largely a nothing burger like the Y2K problem? My guess is in 2037 everyone will frantically test their systems and make some patches and life will go on, no?

nwallin 5y ago
Depends. It's going to hit the embedded world pretty hard. It's going to hit the "no need to update the legacy software that still works" enterprise world pretty hard. It's not even going to be a blip on the open software world because 64 bit `time_t` has been the default since the mid 2000s.
Xylakant 5y ago
The Y2K problem was a nothingburger because legions of people worked to make it one. Still, critical systems failed - for example the system managing the emergency call lines for the Firefighters in Berlin https://www.heise.de/newsticker/meldung/Computer-GAU-Das-Silvesterchaos-bei-der-Berliner-Feuerwehr-25744.html https://www.heise.de/newsticker/meldung/Computer-GAU-Das-Sil...
- pjscott 5y ago
  That's the thing about seeing a problem coming and working to fix it before it happens: an adequate reaction looks the same as an overreaction from the outside, and the "lol overreaction" narrative is way more viral.
- niccl 5y ago
  And it's little known that New Zealand/Aotearoa would have run out of accessible petrol on about Jan 3 if things hadn't been fixed A lot of the y2k thing was badly framed and over-hyped by Large Consulting Companies, but it was a real problem
- LorenPechtel 5y ago
  And there were lots of little gotchas from Y2K that actually did manifest when they concerned dates in the future. Nothing spectacular, just wrong answers. "Expired" stuff being thrown away, improper cost projections etc.
  - TillE 5y ago
    My favorite trivial Y2K bug was some custom forum software on a gaming site (either Stratics or a Vault, I think) displaying the year as "19100" in January 2000.
    - mark-r 5y ago
      I had a gas pump receipt that said "1/2/100" for the date.
siffland 5y ago
You are probably correct. Again people will bet on current system not being in use 15 years from now and it is not a problem until it is a problem. On a better note Y2K brought us the movie "Office Space", so perhaps Y2K38 will give us another equally awesome movie.
- MeinBlutIstBlau 5y ago
  I always ask my 32 bit integers before modifying them: "What would you say...you do here?"
snailmailman 5y ago
How many smart lightbulbs, washing machines, thermostats, and TVs: - will have literally anywhere that time is 32-bit - won’t be actively updated, but still in use. This problem has the potential to break clocks on so many devices. Some may not be easily updatable.
- phamilton 5y ago
  Embedded systems for sure are going to be problematic. https://github.com/arduino/esp8266/blob/master/tools/sdk/libc/xtensa-lx106-elf/include/machine/types.h#L14 https://github.com/arduino/esp8266/blob/master/tools/sdk/lib... says that at least some Arduino/esp8266 installations are using a long (which I believe is signed 32 bit) for time_t.
- Gigachad 5y ago
  I have seen stuff breaking already. 2020 caused the firmware on my nintendo ds piracy flashcart to stop functioning. Have to reset the console date to earlier to get it to start.
peteri 5y ago
There was a lecture given at Gresham college: https://www.gresham.ac.uk/lectures-and-events/what-really-happened-in-y2k https://www.gresham.ac.uk/lectures-and-events/what-really-ha... Which does have a decent list of failures due to the Y2K issue.

Convince me it won't be largely a nothing burger like the Y2K problem? My guess is in 2037 everyone will frantically test their systems and make some patches and life will go on, no?

nwallin 5y ago

Depends. It's going to hit the embedded world pretty hard. It's going to hit the "no need to update the legacy software that still works" enterprise world pretty hard. It's not even going to be a blip on the open software world because 64 bit `time_t` has been the default since the mid 2000s.

Xylakant 5y ago

The Y2K problem was a nothingburger because legions of people worked to make it one. Still, critical systems failed - for example the system managing the emergency call lines for the Firefighters in Berlin https://www.heise.de/newsticker/meldung/Computer-GAU-Das-Silvesterchaos-bei-der-Berliner-Feuerwehr-25744.html https://www.heise.de/newsticker/meldung/Computer-GAU-Das-Sil...

pjscott 5y ago
That's the thing about seeing a problem coming and working to fix it before it happens: an adequate reaction looks the same as an overreaction from the outside, and the "lol overreaction" narrative is way more viral.
niccl 5y ago
And it's little known that New Zealand/Aotearoa would have run out of accessible petrol on about Jan 3 if things hadn't been fixed A lot of the y2k thing was badly framed and over-hyped by Large Consulting Companies, but it was a real problem
LorenPechtel 5y ago
And there were lots of little gotchas from Y2K that actually did manifest when they concerned dates in the future. Nothing spectacular, just wrong answers. "Expired" stuff being thrown away, improper cost projections etc.
- TillE 5y ago
  My favorite trivial Y2K bug was some custom forum software on a gaming site (either Stratics or a Vault, I think) displaying the year as "19100" in January 2000.
  - mark-r 5y ago
    I had a gas pump receipt that said "1/2/100" for the date.

siffland 5y ago

You are probably correct. Again people will bet on current system not being in use 15 years from now and it is not a problem until it is a problem. On a better note Y2K brought us the movie "Office Space", so perhaps Y2K38 will give us another equally awesome movie.

MeinBlutIstBlau 5y ago
I always ask my 32 bit integers before modifying them: "What would you say...you do here?"

snailmailman 5y ago

How many smart lightbulbs, washing machines, thermostats, and TVs: - will have literally anywhere that time is 32-bit - won’t be actively updated, but still in use. This problem has the potential to break clocks on so many devices. Some may not be easily updatable.

phamilton 5y ago
Embedded systems for sure are going to be problematic. https://github.com/arduino/esp8266/blob/master/tools/sdk/libc/xtensa-lx106-elf/include/machine/types.h#L14 https://github.com/arduino/esp8266/blob/master/tools/sdk/lib... says that at least some Arduino/esp8266 installations are using a long (which I believe is signed 32 bit) for time_t.
Gigachad 5y ago
I have seen stuff breaking already. 2020 caused the firmware on my nintendo ds piracy flashcart to stop functioning. Have to reset the console date to earlier to get it to start.

peteri 5y ago

There was a lecture given at Gresham college: https://www.gresham.ac.uk/lectures-and-events/what-really-happened-in-y2k https://www.gresham.ac.uk/lectures-and-events/what-really-ha... Which does have a decent list of failures due to the Y2K issue.