3 ms·

Ukraine's government raises crypto worth $8M in crowdfunding appeal

37 points by prostoalex 5y ago

themodelplumber 5y ago
That's interesting to think about with current technical indicators in mind. The Ruble was, last I checked yesterday, worth less than 10% of a single $DOGE, which itself is around $0.12 vs. USD today. But it's also projected that $DOGE will make another try at flipping $.70 zone resistance levels into support and taking out $1 before 2Q 2022 is over, and that's even taking into account a possible dip below the $.10 line along the way. So that's one example of an outcome where the $8M reaches a value of $70M+ USD before half a year has passed, depending on the spread of raised assets and their current valuation. Anyway, interesting possibilities...
- saurik 5y ago
  As you can buy/sell currencies back and forth between each o other--and <$10M isn't going to move the market horribly if you spend a day or two doing it--the mental model of only doing this analysis because the money happened to be collected in a volatile currency is flawed: the decision to hold on to a volatile currency is equivalent to the decision to buy that currency as you "may as well have" just sold it and re-evaluated your position.
  - themodelplumber 5y ago
    > the mental model of only doing this analysis because the money happened to be collected in a volatile currency That's your assumption; why not ask a question instead? > the decision to hold on to a volatile currency is equivalent to the decision to buy that currency This conflates a possible comparison based on assumptive logic with a probability based on circumstances you either don't know, haven't introduced, or don't care to ask about. Why do that?
    - saurik 5y ago
      > That's your assumption; why not ask a question instead? Because I am not attempting to ask something: I am attempting to correct something. > This conflates a possible comparison based on assumptive logic with a probability based on circumstances you either don't know, haven't introduced, or don't care to ask about. Why do that? The reason to do that analysis is because to not do it leads to initial-situational-specific madness: the idea that this money they received could someday be worth $70M, and that you wouldn't be saying this had they received dollars via PayPal or something, is akin to the people who claim "you must be sad you purchased a candy bar with your Bitcoin back in 2012", which is clearly non-sensical: it entirely ignores that value exists in the moment and the decision to not do something IS a decision.
      - themodelplumber 5y ago
        > I am attempting to correct something. No, you don't even know what you're correcting is objectively there to correct. "You wouldn't otherwise do X" is not a fact, it's an assumption: > that you wouldn't be saying this had they received dollars via PayPal or something That's not logic. It's a guess. A guessumption. I think it would be easier to correct someone by being polite, asking questions, and even if failing that, being logical. Your reasoning is nonsensical, based on guesswork, and leaves out very important details.
- jazzyjackson 5y ago
  At 10,000 coins per one minute block reward, 14,000,000 new Doge are minted every day. Not a great coin to HODL, projections amount to reading tea leaves
  - themodelplumber 5y ago
    Seems you are hinting at the argument that Dogecoin is exposed to special inflationary risk? I thought that was shot down long ago. https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1358648653573992450?t=5-XbjJgP71d1Aub27Wa6hg&s=19 https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1358648653573992450?t=5-... Argument from tea leaves seemingly applies to any future-looking trade into risk. Projections that don't fit the tea leaves model are probabilities (moving average models for example) and contingency planning (hedging vs other assets you believe in), used by traders every day. It's how technical trading works. Much different from intrinsic value trades. Some part of a portfolio should be exposed to higher risk, and IMO extrinsic models as well.
    - jazzyjackson 5y ago
      > but is not meaningfully so (fixed # of coins per unit time) Hmmm, I guess I thought 14M tokens/day was a lot, but at current supply of 132,000M, each day increases supply by 1%, and it would take about 26 years for supply to double. I guess that's a pretty reasonable rate of inflation after all. I don't love being corrected by an Elon tweet, but it is what it is. Thanks.
LordAtlas 5y ago
Who knows how much that will be worth tomorrow? Or a week/month from now.
- Jxl180 5y ago
  They are immediately liquidating it. This is a payment method, not an investment.

37 points by prostoalex 5y ago

That's interesting to think about with current technical indicators in mind. The Ruble was, last I checked yesterday, worth less than 10% of a single $DOGE, which itself is around $0.12 vs. USD today. But it's also projected that $DOGE will make another try at flipping $.70 zone resistance levels into support and taking out $1 before 2Q 2022 is over, and that's even taking into account a possible dip below the $.10 line along the way. So that's one example of an outcome where the $8M reaches a value of $70M+ USD before half a year has passed, depending on the spread of raised assets and their current valuation. Anyway, interesting possibilities...

saurik 5y ago
As you can buy/sell currencies back and forth between each o other--and <$10M isn't going to move the market horribly if you spend a day or two doing it--the mental model of only doing this analysis because the money happened to be collected in a volatile currency is flawed: the decision to hold on to a volatile currency is equivalent to the decision to buy that currency as you "may as well have" just sold it and re-evaluated your position.
- themodelplumber 5y ago
  > the mental model of only doing this analysis because the money happened to be collected in a volatile currency That's your assumption; why not ask a question instead? > the decision to hold on to a volatile currency is equivalent to the decision to buy that currency This conflates a possible comparison based on assumptive logic with a probability based on circumstances you either don't know, haven't introduced, or don't care to ask about. Why do that?
  - saurik 5y ago
    > That's your assumption; why not ask a question instead? Because I am not attempting to ask something: I am attempting to correct something. > This conflates a possible comparison based on assumptive logic with a probability based on circumstances you either don't know, haven't introduced, or don't care to ask about. Why do that? The reason to do that analysis is because to not do it leads to initial-situational-specific madness: the idea that this money they received could someday be worth $70M, and that you wouldn't be saying this had they received dollars via PayPal or something, is akin to the people who claim "you must be sad you purchased a candy bar with your Bitcoin back in 2012", which is clearly non-sensical: it entirely ignores that value exists in the moment and the decision to not do something IS a decision.
    - themodelplumber 5y ago
      > I am attempting to correct something. No, you don't even know what you're correcting is objectively there to correct. "You wouldn't otherwise do X" is not a fact, it's an assumption: > that you wouldn't be saying this had they received dollars via PayPal or something That's not logic. It's a guess. A guessumption. I think it would be easier to correct someone by being polite, asking questions, and even if failing that, being logical. Your reasoning is nonsensical, based on guesswork, and leaves out very important details.
jazzyjackson 5y ago
At 10,000 coins per one minute block reward, 14,000,000 new Doge are minted every day. Not a great coin to HODL, projections amount to reading tea leaves
- themodelplumber 5y ago
  Seems you are hinting at the argument that Dogecoin is exposed to special inflationary risk? I thought that was shot down long ago. https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1358648653573992450?t=5-XbjJgP71d1Aub27Wa6hg&s=19 https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1358648653573992450?t=5-... Argument from tea leaves seemingly applies to any future-looking trade into risk. Projections that don't fit the tea leaves model are probabilities (moving average models for example) and contingency planning (hedging vs other assets you believe in), used by traders every day. It's how technical trading works. Much different from intrinsic value trades. Some part of a portfolio should be exposed to higher risk, and IMO extrinsic models as well.
  - jazzyjackson 5y ago
    > but is not meaningfully so (fixed # of coins per unit time) Hmmm, I guess I thought 14M tokens/day was a lot, but at current supply of 132,000M, each day increases supply by 1%, and it would take about 26 years for supply to double. I guess that's a pretty reasonable rate of inflation after all. I don't love being corrected by an Elon tweet, but it is what it is. Thanks.

LordAtlas 5y ago

Who knows how much that will be worth tomorrow? Or a week/month from now.

Jxl180 5y ago
They are immediately liquidating it. This is a payment method, not an investment.