4 ms·

I believe you misapprehend the crisis if you believe the outcome will be solely determined in the west’s choosing or not choosing to “let Russia.” The west is

by w0de0 5y ago

I believe you misapprehend the crisis if you believe the outcome will be solely determined in the west’s choosing or not choosing to “let Russia.” The west is doing much more, at significant risk of escalation, than could have been reasonably hoped. I would not have dared hope that all Europe would brave openly shipping weapons to kill Russian soldiers. But even Germany has found this courage.

jacquesm 5y ago
> But even Germany has found this courage. If a bit late, but better late than never.
- w0de0 5y ago
  I'd dispute that - I think they actually timed their policy shift well. Their export control policies were hugely symbolic, a totem of guilt. The Germans genuinely, and to their significant credit, feel the moral weight of their nation's history. Their reluctance was commendable and not token. Overcoming it is a clear moral judgement that many will hear. Not least Moscow's elite. German relations with Russia were once much better than most of the rest of Europe's - Russia does not view Germany as simple US puppet.
  - jacquesm 5y ago
    Fair enough, and yes, to have the brakes on this is in principle a good thing but for all the same money Ukraine would have been significantly worse off already because of the slow response. But you are right that this is a feature.
  - throwaway_4ever 5y ago
    Is there any proof German reluctance to Ukrainian defense was WW2 guilt, as opposed to Russian control over a key sector to their economy?
    - w0de0 5y ago
      No, "Russian control over a key sector to their economy" is not a plausible analysis, imo. You do not specify, but may I assume you refer to Russia's LNG leverage? It is not reasonable to seek just-so geostategic facts, or single points of leverage, that explain societies of millions and the policies of their governments. Understanding something of German politics can elucidate origins of German policy. "Guilt" is a lazy reduction on my part. It references a sense of special German responsibility to never cause or encourage war, especially in Europe - the zeitgeist of West Germany's post-war generation. A recent DW opinion piece summarizes the received wisdom: "There are good reasons why Germany has adopted the stance of, on principle, not supplying weapons to war or crisis zones – especially when it concerns a region that, within living memory, has suffered the consequences of a terrible German occupation. The danger of further fueling conflicts if more and more weapons are supplied is not one that can be dismissed out of hand." [0] Knowing so well the sins of their parents, this generation has sought a path to be proud, little-g germans - replacing nationalism and patriotism with moral vocation. Consider this recollection, from an Austrian born in 1947: https://youtu.be/Qmp--Z8pmTU?t=103 https://youtu.be/Qmp--Z8pmTU?t=103. There is so much more to consider: I haven't escaped lazy shorthand. For instance, the German arms industry is fourth largest in the world. Hypocrisy, monitoring, and debate abound [1]. Analyzing a democratic polity oft feels like a fractal fool's errand. Certainly, all this is not to say Russia has not influenced Germany's foreign, security, and arms exports policies. The described German sense of responsibility includes a particular sensitivity with regard to criticism of Russia, and an eagerness for economic engagement. Russia sacrificed far more to defeat the Nazis than all other allies combined, and Germans know this well, especially Ossies (not so the rest of the West - often a particular grievance of ordinary Russians). The LNG vulnerability is doubtless a salient consideration in German policy decisions. But they've conclusively demonstrated the other factors have more weight, and they are willing to pay a price for principle. Indeed, previous to the policy change they were paying a different price - the opprobrium and frustration of allies and America - on the grounds on principle. 0 - https://www.dw.com/en/opinion-ukraine-crisis-germany-needs-an-open-discussion-about-arms-exports/a-60790033 https://www.dw.com/en/opinion-ukraine-crisis-germany-needs-a... 1 - https://www.swp-berlin.org/publications/products/comments/2021C06_GermanArmsExports.pdf https://www.swp-berlin.org/publications/products/comments/20...

by w0de0 5y ago

jacquesm 5y ago

> But even Germany has found this courage. If a bit late, but better late than never.

w0de0 5y ago
I'd dispute that - I think they actually timed their policy shift well. Their export control policies were hugely symbolic, a totem of guilt. The Germans genuinely, and to their significant credit, feel the moral weight of their nation's history. Their reluctance was commendable and not token. Overcoming it is a clear moral judgement that many will hear. Not least Moscow's elite. German relations with Russia were once much better than most of the rest of Europe's - Russia does not view Germany as simple US puppet.
- jacquesm 5y ago
  Fair enough, and yes, to have the brakes on this is in principle a good thing but for all the same money Ukraine would have been significantly worse off already because of the slow response. But you are right that this is a feature.
- throwaway_4ever 5y ago
  Is there any proof German reluctance to Ukrainian defense was WW2 guilt, as opposed to Russian control over a key sector to their economy?
  - w0de0 5y ago
    No, "Russian control over a key sector to their economy" is not a plausible analysis, imo. You do not specify, but may I assume you refer to Russia's LNG leverage? It is not reasonable to seek just-so geostategic facts, or single points of leverage, that explain societies of millions and the policies of their governments. Understanding something of German politics can elucidate origins of German policy. "Guilt" is a lazy reduction on my part. It references a sense of special German responsibility to never cause or encourage war, especially in Europe - the zeitgeist of West Germany's post-war generation. A recent DW opinion piece summarizes the received wisdom: "There are good reasons why Germany has adopted the stance of, on principle, not supplying weapons to war or crisis zones – especially when it concerns a region that, within living memory, has suffered the consequences of a terrible German occupation. The danger of further fueling conflicts if more and more weapons are supplied is not one that can be dismissed out of hand." [0] Knowing so well the sins of their parents, this generation has sought a path to be proud, little-g germans - replacing nationalism and patriotism with moral vocation. Consider this recollection, from an Austrian born in 1947: https://youtu.be/Qmp--Z8pmTU?t=103 https://youtu.be/Qmp--Z8pmTU?t=103. There is so much more to consider: I haven't escaped lazy shorthand. For instance, the German arms industry is fourth largest in the world. Hypocrisy, monitoring, and debate abound [1]. Analyzing a democratic polity oft feels like a fractal fool's errand. Certainly, all this is not to say Russia has not influenced Germany's foreign, security, and arms exports policies. The described German sense of responsibility includes a particular sensitivity with regard to criticism of Russia, and an eagerness for economic engagement. Russia sacrificed far more to defeat the Nazis than all other allies combined, and Germans know this well, especially Ossies (not so the rest of the West - often a particular grievance of ordinary Russians). The LNG vulnerability is doubtless a salient consideration in German policy decisions. But they've conclusively demonstrated the other factors have more weight, and they are willing to pay a price for principle. Indeed, previous to the policy change they were paying a different price - the opprobrium and frustration of allies and America - on the grounds on principle. 0 - https://www.dw.com/en/opinion-ukraine-crisis-germany-needs-an-open-discussion-about-arms-exports/a-60790033 https://www.dw.com/en/opinion-ukraine-crisis-germany-needs-a... 1 - https://www.swp-berlin.org/publications/products/comments/2021C06_GermanArmsExports.pdf https://www.swp-berlin.org/publications/products/comments/20...