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Oversupply means a few of the suppliers will not be able to sell their chips and might face bankruptcy, leading to monopolies in a decade or so when the pendulu
by WJW 5y ago
Oversupply means a few of the suppliers will not be able to sell their chips and might face bankruptcy, leading to monopolies in a decade or so when the pendulum swings back again. Don't worry too much about it though, it's difficult to predict the future and it's equally possible that the market will return to relative balance without overcorrection.
- xadhominemx 5y agoThere are not going to be any bankruptcies even in a severe oversupply situation. Chip manufacturers are much higher margin and better capitalized than in the past, and a lot of the riskier capacity expansion this time around has been financed by customers
- netcan 5y agoThis is probably true, but it may not mean any less consolidation. Consolidation is a fairly easy bet to place though from a 2022 POV, so I guess GP (and I) are predicting cold during winter.
- xadhominemx 5y agoI can’t think of any more major consolidation that can take place. Maybe within NAND, but for different reasons as there’s not really risk of a long lasting supply glut in that market.
- thatguy0900 5y agoGovernments have/may start seeing chipmaking as something of national security, right? So would they let a great amount of consolidation occur or will every continent have its own heavily subsidized chip industry