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For me the question is how far will the world let Russia go? Has the rest of the world already made a decision to only work through sanctions and not actually i
by yalogin 5y ago
For me the question is how far will the world let Russia go? Has the rest of the world already made a decision to only work through sanctions and not actually interfere? It has for now obviously but will that decision not change even after 10 days? Chinese neighbors must be watching this with a lot of concern. Particularly Taiwan, because if the west is not doing anything when a war happens in its backyard now hat hope does Taiwan have when China decides to occupy.
- Axsuul 5y agoThe US has said it would defend Taiwan
- traviswt 5y agoYou’re very correct. The most illogical position to take is that Russia will stop with Ukraine. It is true that Putin has genocidal wishes against the people, but just like Hitler what he really loves is power and conquest.
- prescriptivist 5y agoHe's already starting talks with Ukraine. He is realizing what a poor calculation this war was.
- likecarter 5y agoHe made up complete lies as a pretext for invasion. He will never negotiate in good faith.
- yurishimo 5y agoThere are rumors that tonight will actually be the worst night thus far in an attempt to bring Ukraine to the table with the remnants of the night fresh in their minds. It’s not over until it’s over.
- pydry 5y agoTaiwan will put up a much bigger fight than Ukraine can and has geography that will make invading so much harder.
- kkfx 5y agoIMVHO Taiwan is already grabbed, China just wait the USA for semiconductors production capacity, when the need of TW wains enough for the USA China will invade and the USA will just menace, apply limited sanction that does not really hurt nor China nor USA economy etc.
- audunw 5y ago> China just wait the USA for semiconductors production capacity So what.. we're talking 20-30 years in the future? Taiwan will still likely be critical to semiconductor manufacturing as they're starting to take over more of the R&D role that USA has traditionally had. That far ahead, anything could happen. Hell, China could go through another liberalisation phase. If the blue party in Taiwan gets to power again, China will likely have a period of friendlier relations with Taiwan as well.
- deleted 5y ago[deleted]
- freebuju 5y agoThere isn't much the world can do now. Calling Putin's bluff on invading Ukraine was the biggest mistake the West made. NATO should have seeked to recruit new member countries from other regions. They forced Putin into action. If you are calling for an assault on Russia in the hopes of making Putin bow out of this war, you would be effectively starting WWIII. Putin has just recently called bluff on readying the nuclear warheads, I don't think any leader wants to antagonize the situation any further. The most reasonable course of action IMO (with the least amount of casualties) is to let Putin have his way for now, and let him deal with the consequences later on.
- TimTheTinker 5y ago> Calling Putin's bluff How did we do that? I think we knew he was serious from the beginning. And we behaved accordingly, though shamefully, in my opinion. We ought to have done "to others what we would have them do to us" (i.e. send aid, supplies, and troops immediately to Ukraine, regardless of the geopolitics involved.)
- freebuju 5y ago> send aid, supplies, and troops immediately to Ukraine, regardless of the geopolitics involved. How? When Ukraine's borders are surrounded by Russian armies and Pro-Russian separatists now. If you are talking about having done that pro-actively, then that's a failure on your part. One that may have a profound effect on Ukraine's defense.
- 5y ago
- kkfx 5y agoClearly Russia want to shorten as much as possible it's western border, it's extremely long and do not have any natural obstacle, essentially indefensible, so the shortest the better. A straight line between the Black sea and the Baltic see is the ideal. Beside that, however consider the big picture: ALL today's Govs. benefit from this war: - all face social unrest for the push toward Green New Deal, for the impoverishment off the middle class etc, a war silence such unrest and justify all issue "they are due to the war"; - USA that have largely lost influence in EU, especially after brexit, now do have a deep influence again; - China, now the sole reliable Russian partner can elicit far more military tech from Russia and far more cheap and abundant natural resources, probably to a point to overpower the USA in few years; - Putin secure more years to came winning a war. Who loose? ALL the people, as always. IMVHO Russia took the entire Ukraine and no one really do anything, perhaps in the next few years also a Baltic "republic". While EU Gov thunder against Russia they agree for more natural resources supplies, stating the contrary to keep energy price sky-high to push the Green New Deal and the world slowly evolve toward a new cold war alike situation. The BIG risk is China: having Russia in it's quiver it can really start a world war likely for some South American country, while India face more and more internal and local unrest favoring a dangerous local conflict. But that part so far is more fantasy than reality.
- QuadmasterXLII 5y agouser: kkfx created: 20 hours ago karma: 4 I know that this kind of callout is banned on hackernews, but these are unusual times.
- mint2 5y agoIt’s not a good look at the moment to Start off with a Russian justification of the war and then present an abnormal take on the popular among non-oil dependents green new deal, a plan that just so happens to be very inconvenient for oligarchs in old fashioned gas economies that want to continue spewing CO2 like it’s 1950 - like Russia
- kkfx 5y ago
- dminor 5y agoThe US and many European countries are already openly supplying arms to Ukraine, so I guess it depends on your definition of interfere. If you mean attacking the Russians directly, it probably depends on how long the Ukrainians can hold out. The longer they endure the weaker Putin becomes.
- jiriro 5y agoWeapons and ammunition is being sent. More is on the way. - Czech Ministry of Defense
- w0de0 5y agoI believe you misapprehend the crisis if you believe the outcome will be solely determined in the west’s choosing or not choosing to “let Russia.” The west is doing much more, at significant risk of escalation, than could have been reasonably hoped. I would not have dared hope that all Europe would brave openly shipping weapons to kill Russian soldiers. But even Germany has found this courage.
- jacquesm 5y ago> But even Germany has found this courage. If a bit late, but better late than never.
- w0de0 5y agoI'd dispute that - I think they actually timed their policy shift well. Their export control policies were hugely symbolic, a totem of guilt. The Germans genuinely, and to their significant credit, feel the moral weight of their nation's history. Their reluctance was commendable and not token. Overcoming it is a clear moral judgement that many will hear. Not least Moscow's elite. German relations with Russia were once much better than most of the rest of Europe's - Russia does not view Germany as simple US puppet.
- jacquesm 5y agoFair enough, and yes, to have the brakes on this is in principle a good thing but for all the same money Ukraine would have been significantly worse off already because of the slow response. But you are right that this is a feature.
- throwaway_4ever 5y agoIs there any proof German reluctance to Ukrainian defense was WW2 guilt, as opposed to Russian control over a key sector to their economy?
- w0de0 5y agoNo, "Russian control over a key sector to their economy" is not a plausible analysis, imo. You do not specify, but may I assume you refer to Russia's LNG leverage? It is not reasonable to seek just-so geostategic facts, or single points of leverage, that explain societies of millions and the policies of their governments. Understanding something of German politics can elucidate origins of German policy. "Guilt" is a lazy reduction on my part. It references a sense of special German responsibility to never cause or encourage war, especially in Europe - the zeitgeist of West Germany's post-war generation. A recent DW opinion piece summarizes the received wisdom: "There are good reasons why Germany has adopted the stance of, on principle, not supplying weapons to war or crisis zones – especially when it concerns a region that, within living memory, has suffered the consequences of a terrible German occupation. The danger of further fueling conflicts if more and more weapons are supplied is not one that can be dismissed out of hand." [0] Knowing so well the sins of their parents, this generation has sought a path to be proud, little-g germans - replacing nationalism and patriotism with moral vocation. Consider this recollection, from an Austrian born in 1947: https://youtu.be/Qmp--Z8pmTU?t=103 https://youtu.be/Qmp--Z8pmTU?t=103. There is so much more to consider: I haven't escaped lazy shorthand. For instance, the German arms industry is fourth largest in the world. Hypocrisy, monitoring, and debate abound [1]. Analyzing a democratic polity oft feels like a fractal fool's errand. Certainly, all this is not to say Russia has not influenced Germany's foreign, security, and arms exports policies. The described German sense of responsibility includes a particular sensitivity with regard to criticism of Russia, and an eagerness for economic engagement. Russia sacrificed far more to defeat the Nazis than all other allies combined, and Germans know this well, especially Ossies (not so the rest of the West - often a particular grievance of ordinary Russians). The LNG vulnerability is doubtless a salient consideration in German policy decisions. But they've conclusively demonstrated the other factors have more weight, and they are willing to pay a price for principle. Indeed, previous to the policy change they were paying a different price - the opprobrium and frustration of allies and America - on the grounds on principle. 0 - https://www.dw.com/en/opinion-ukraine-crisis-germany-needs-an-open-discussion-about-arms-exports/a-60790033 https://www.dw.com/en/opinion-ukraine-crisis-germany-needs-a... 1 - https://www.swp-berlin.org/publications/products/comments/2021C06_GermanArmsExports.pdf https://www.swp-berlin.org/publications/products/comments/20...
- readthenotes1 5y agoUSD 300 million more in aid is hardly just sanctions. Even Germany is sending munitions now