3 ms·
The great fear is that Russia will simply use artillery to flatten the city bit by bit. That said - Ukranians have not (yet) lost all the ground. Russian force
by jollybean 5y ago
The great fear is that Russia will simply use artillery to flatten the city bit by bit.
That said - Ukranians have not (yet) lost all the ground. Russian forces in a large country are quite vulnerable to attack from all sides if it can be sustained and coordinated.
The Eastern 1/2 of Ukraine is largely still open even as the W. is partly contended - this gives a lot of space for Ukraine to manoeuvre and regroup - and most notably - to be reinforced from Poland.
Currently, the Russians are paying a heavy, daily price that is completely unsustainable to them.
The question becomes - can they get into a 'grinding' position in which they are wearing down the Ukranians, while at the same time minimising their costs and loses? It's hard to say.
West is also taking note and the frankly heroic and effective acts of Ukranians is encouraging giving them more gear. The Javelins etc. are being used very effectively, I mean, the US can do serious damage to the Russians just by handing off Javelins and not even putting their own soldiers at risk? That's the 'deal of the century'.
As the war prolongs, then more complicated equipment that requires even a bit of training can be deployed to similar effect.
Specifically, artillery is vulnerable to radar and rapid counter attack, so long as the equipment is there. If the Ukranians have access to this kind of tech (there is some talk of it), they can use it to disable or at least degrade any kind of 'siege artillery'. Russians have a limited supply of rockets, and they can't use their close air support (Stingers), and even fast air is a bit risky.
Ukraine is also a big country. Chechnya is 1.5M people and that was a painful mess. Ukraine is 45M people with support from the West, that's a different range of calculation.
- iso1210 5y agoUkraine has a long western border with the EU for supplies to enter, Poland, Slovakia, Hunary and Romania. It would be extremely hard for Russia to close that entire border.
- isbvhodnvemrwvn 5y agoNot if Belarus joins the war in full capacity. They also have air superiority.
- iso1210 5y agoI was assuming Belarus is part of Russia. It's over 200 miles from the Belarus border to the Ukraine-Hungary and Ukraine-Romania border. Air superiority doesn't seem to be clear cut currently, and that's before you factor in anti-aircraft weapons being part of the shipped equipment.
- kqr 5y ago> The Eastern 1/2 of Ukraine is largely still open even as the W. is partly contended - this gives a lot of space for Ukraine to manoeuvre and regroup Not if the enemy can get and maintain air superiority. Air superiority closes virtually all room for manoeuvering.
- gokdisjtrdcvv5 5y agoRussia doesn’t seem to have it yet though. Ukraine keeps blowing up a lot of their planes and helicopters for the moment.
- jollybean 5y agoRussia will never have full air superiority 'because Stingers'. Ukraine's fixed assets were wiped out on day 1, but they have mobile units which I believe are still effective. The lack of use of a lot of air power by Russia in the last few days I believe is due to the fact that on day 1 they had serious damages and it's just very costly out there. Mobile AA units can operate independently but I don' know if it's Russian or Western gear, if Russian, it may be hard to replace. Because even free gear from the West right now would require training. But - there is an unlimited supply of Stingers from the West, and those will do serious damage to all helicopters, and seriously risk close air, and also hugely risk transport aircraft on approach. Ukraine can plop a 19 year old anywhere within 3-4K of an aerodrome and pluck transports out of the sky with impunity. So far they've knocked out 2 transports which is very expensive to the Russians. On day 1 they tried to land airborne using 30 transport helicopters, 3 were taken out, that's devastating. Russians had to follow up with 100 helicopter transport landing at once, to land 1000 soldiers, that is a huge portion of their rotary wing assault fleet for one single operation. Very risky. That said, the Russians are sill flying missions. But yes, it's a huge factor. Ukraine's ability to consistently deny Air Support is 100% a decisive issue. Without it, they'd be getting demolished by Russian Airships, much like Iraqi Army facing the US.
- Mikeb85 5y agoIt seems Russia's air forces capabilities were over-estimated and Ukraine's under-estimated. Ukraine is still flying fighter jets (MiG-29s and Su-27s)...