7 ms·

Putin holds a major soft power weapon, help weaken it with gas and oil rationing

41 points by jaltekruse 5y ago

jeltz 5y ago
Can any nuclear plants be reopened in a reasonable amount of time?
- _3u10 5y ago
  Of course they could. But Germany would rather rely on Russia than have nuke energy. Russian oil and gas is greener and has a lower carbon foot print according to them.
  - lawn 5y ago
    I'm glad you added "according to them", because nuclear has a much lower carbon footprint than gas.
    - _3u10 5y ago
      Yeah I was quite frankly surprised to see a clean energy leader promoting fossil fuels as sustainable and nuclear as not.
  - jaltekruse 5y ago
    Yo! I encourage you to read down to the "what NOT to do" section. This type of bickering is exactly what I'm trying to convince people to avoid. I think we should take this moment to acknowledge what lots of people agree on, energy independence is good for security. I'm trying to make the website neutral, but its hard in the current political climate. I think liberals need to accept that energy independence is good even if it doesn't come 100% renewable. And also trying to rally conservatives to accept that renewables are a longer term play, but are kind of the only option for nations that have no domestic oil reserves. But that is kind of all irrelevant right now, Russia could cut off gas from Europe today! I'm trying to prevent us from being caught with our pants down and having to cave an otherwise pretty united international response.
    - _3u10 5y ago
      It’s Germany’s choice. I’m not rationing anything because they chose a course of action with predictable consequences. They made their clean energy bed, and lectured everyone else on it, they can lie in it. If they like the results they can keep going, if they don’t in the long run there’s still time to change the road your on.
baremetal 5y ago
i wouldnt be surprised if russia cuts off oil and gas to europe due to the sanctions imposed. im not sure consumer rationing is gonna solve this problem. but i could be wrong.
- jaltekruse 5y ago
  I don't expect this to be a complete solution, but I am also very fearful that things will get shut off. People are talking about this threat, but mostly to express despair. I'm trying to rally support and action ahead of the chaos that will ensue when things get shut off if there isn't a plan. Starting grassroots I'm hoping will increase the chances people are willing to accept rationing. Governments won't be able to convince their people to hold firm against Russia and tolerate mass shortages suddenly given what I'm perceiving as a deficit of real support and widespread action right now.
  - baremetal 5y ago
    i dont know that people will have a choice when it comes to tolerating mass shortages. people are so used to comfort. i wouldnt want to see the situation in which that comfort is cut off. so i applaud your intentions. maybe europe should build some more solar and wind farms.
    - jaltekruse 5y ago
      Unfortunately this is about the level of discourse I'm seeing everywhere. Mocking green energy targets. Right now I think this is profoundly unproductive. Ukraine should not have been invaded, Russia violated international law and is committing war crimes. A relatively small nation is holding the line against a world power and all I'm trying to say is maybe enough people in the world care, or should care, about resisting the actions of a dictator. I think if our grandfathers and great grandfathers could fight and die to prevent expansionist nations aggression, maybe the muted 21st century version of what we can do is be organize ourselves a little and tolerate some discomfort.
- bitwize 5y ago
frenchman99 5y ago
Being a Frenchman, I think government could push citizens to act, increasing price of Russian gas through massive taxes or something like that. We only import like 20% gas from Russia, from what I understand. Impact would be small for us and would prepare us for potentially more severe restrictions in the futures, helping us become more resilient. Am I missing something?
- _3u10 5y ago
  The best thing to do is lower taxes on gas to account for the inevitable rise in prices. Once swift bans are in place the priority should be to use Russian oil and gas until the taps are turned off for non-payment.
  - gbear605 5y ago
    The current SWIFT bans are only aimed at some Russian banks and seem to intentionally let oil and gas continue to flow.
    - _3u10 5y ago
      Yeah I bet everyone else will switch their commerce to those banks that are able to process.
- unfocussed_mike 5y ago
  > increasing price of Russian gas through massive taxes or something like that Unless you're using a bottled product -- you may be referring to a bottled product -- you can't choose which gas you as a consumer get, can you? Either way, gas and energy are fairly fungible (more fungible than crypto, hah). It's not really possible to target one supply with massive tax like this without having a knock-on effect on the rest of the energy market. To what extent is the rest of the system resilient to a permanent 20% reduction in supply? That Russian gas might be disproportionately used in generating backup electricity.
- kkfx 5y ago
  So you actually ask to squeeze more money out of your own people? More specifically poor people, since AFAIK they are for biggest domestic gas consumers in France. UAU.... What you propose IMVHO will happen, not by sanction but by scarcity excuses, and not to damage Russia (actually EU push for a partial SWIFT ban, to II level Russian actors, leaving the biggest aside, while buy from Russia surge yesterday and still today) but to keep financing the Green New Deal and cutting the push toward energy giant windfall taxes.
_3u10 5y ago
It might be an idea to just supply Europe with more oil from Canada / the us.
- bottled_poe 5y ago
  This seems like it would have the same effect as increasing prices/tariffs, but in a much more convoluted way.
  - unfocussed_mike 5y ago
    I think some form of natural gas protectionism is absolutely coming. Speaking as a Brit I would definitely not rule out our government trying it.
- jaltekruse 5y ago
  Absolutely, but this is more possible if we can start a giant rationing movement. Biden already had to talk about how he was going to keep prices low at the pump while we impose sanctions. This is what we can do as individuals to help with that effort. Unfortunately there isn't a ton of capacity to transport natural gas across the Atlantic, it is possible and we are doing it, but we don't have enough infrastructure and specialized ships for this to replace more than a small fraction of what comes in from Russia through existing pipelines. Nordstream 2 stalling is not a bad step, but that is future harm to Russia, we need to be hurting Russia today as well as preparing for a potential shutoff of all exports.
  - _3u10 5y ago
    Keystone XL could be approved that would help the US with more supply freeing transport by other methods for Europe. I’d be willing to ration if there was movement on energy security. If our leaders don’t want to increase supply I’m not really interested.
sirmike_ 5y ago
No thank you.
ZeroGravitas 5y ago
So this is trolling from pro-Russia, and/or anti-renewable activists right? From their 'what not to do' section: > Argue about what led up to this energy situation. Yes, Germany shut down nuclear plants; yes, green energy targets pushed the USA and others to reduce domestic oil and coal production. If you actually want to do something to help, how about following the "Electrify everything in your house guide": https://www.rewiringamerica.org/ https://www.rewiringamerica.org/
- jaltekruse 5y ago
  I can assure you I am not pro-Russia. I'm happy to take suggestions on edits for the website. I do support green energy targets, but I believe this situation proves the world did some math wrong. Russia is much more aggressive than we were willing to accept even a few weeks ago. The west has been increasing its purchasing of Russian gas and oil despite the fact they had annexed Crimea and supported the separatists. I think we need to talk about what needs to happen in the short term right now. Most of the discussion I am seeing everywhere is people on the right taking shots at Biden and Germany for shutting down domestic production and caring about green energy targets. Part of what I'm trying to get everyone to realize is that the left and right are on the same side. Conservatives that are taking a second to stop mocking the green energy movement are also shouting "this is why energy independence is national security". I'm trying to bridge 2 sides of the debate, I think us lefties need to accept that energy independence in any means possible might be more strategically important in the short run.
  - ZeroGravitas 5y ago
    Assuming you are genuine, there's plenty of sensible advice out there already on how to cut your fossil fuel usage. Linking that to the current story of Russia's oligarchs using their fossil profits to invade and kill democratic neighbours gives people an impetus to do things that will actually make their own life better, but that they may not have heard about, because right-wing propaganda has drowned it out. As I shared recently, most countries will have the equivalent of https://energysavingtrust.org.uk/energy-at-home/ https://energysavingtrust.org.uk/energy-at-home/ Which will tell you ways to save money, and keep your house warmer while also reducing fossil fuel usage. Find and disseminate that, the wider knowledge of fossil fuels being an expensive con will do more to destabilize Putin than anything I've read on your page currently. If you want people to tie it closer to Ukraine, point out that these sites will often tell you how much money you will save by making these choices, get people to donate that money to Ukraine or an organisation that is helping us to move off fossil fuels.
ct0 5y ago
There are small steps that you can take. Use hot water sparingly, turning down the thermostat and driving slower can all help. I don't think we need to pass laws to do this though as any changes to a way of life is an attack on freedom.
- jaltekruse 5y ago
  Yup, my exact point is that tons of people will riot if the government tells them "we need to cut back to fight the Russians". I'm trying to get people to accept ahead of a sudden need to change our behavior or fold to Russian pressures, we can start getting ready for the worst that may come.
noworld 5y ago
Sounds like some mandatory WFH if your job position can handle it would help out here.
foolzcrow 5y ago
deleted 5y ago
[deleted]
qnsi 5y ago
Maybe I would follow some of the advice he's proposing, if it were given by someone from EU, also paying those costs. As I see it, its some American roleplaying real help
- jaltekruse 5y ago
  This impacts me too, the US does export liquid natural gas that could help some. I'm also trying to encourage everyone to reduce consumption, even in the US, because it could enable some resource re-balancing if it comes to that. Russia coming out of this stronger helps none of us. The way I see it is that without starting this discussion we are steaming towards an inevitable outcome where Putin puts pressure on this issue and the whole world just gives up and lets him do whatever he wants.
jaltekruse 5y ago
Hello @dang this appears to be shadow banned and I don't understand why, it got a lot of interest and I think this discussion is useful for more people to see. Did I violate any HN rule by posting this?
- tionis 5y ago
  What makes you think this is shadowbanned?
  - jaltekruse 5y ago
    It got 30 upvotes and many comments in the first 30 minutes, briefly was on the front page but now it isn't listed at all, I can only find it with search or a direct link.

41 points by jaltekruse 5y ago

jeltz 5y ago

Can any nuclear plants be reopened in a reasonable amount of time?

_3u10 5y ago
Of course they could. But Germany would rather rely on Russia than have nuke energy. Russian oil and gas is greener and has a lower carbon foot print according to them.
- lawn 5y ago
  I'm glad you added "according to them", because nuclear has a much lower carbon footprint than gas.
  - _3u10 5y ago
    Yeah I was quite frankly surprised to see a clean energy leader promoting fossil fuels as sustainable and nuclear as not.
- jaltekruse 5y ago
  Yo! I encourage you to read down to the "what NOT to do" section. This type of bickering is exactly what I'm trying to convince people to avoid. I think we should take this moment to acknowledge what lots of people agree on, energy independence is good for security. I'm trying to make the website neutral, but its hard in the current political climate. I think liberals need to accept that energy independence is good even if it doesn't come 100% renewable. And also trying to rally conservatives to accept that renewables are a longer term play, but are kind of the only option for nations that have no domestic oil reserves. But that is kind of all irrelevant right now, Russia could cut off gas from Europe today! I'm trying to prevent us from being caught with our pants down and having to cave an otherwise pretty united international response.
  - _3u10 5y ago
    It’s Germany’s choice. I’m not rationing anything because they chose a course of action with predictable consequences. They made their clean energy bed, and lectured everyone else on it, they can lie in it. If they like the results they can keep going, if they don’t in the long run there’s still time to change the road your on.

baremetal 5y ago

i wouldnt be surprised if russia cuts off oil and gas to europe due to the sanctions imposed. im not sure consumer rationing is gonna solve this problem. but i could be wrong.

jaltekruse 5y ago
I don't expect this to be a complete solution, but I am also very fearful that things will get shut off. People are talking about this threat, but mostly to express despair. I'm trying to rally support and action ahead of the chaos that will ensue when things get shut off if there isn't a plan. Starting grassroots I'm hoping will increase the chances people are willing to accept rationing. Governments won't be able to convince their people to hold firm against Russia and tolerate mass shortages suddenly given what I'm perceiving as a deficit of real support and widespread action right now.
- baremetal 5y ago
  i dont know that people will have a choice when it comes to tolerating mass shortages. people are so used to comfort. i wouldnt want to see the situation in which that comfort is cut off. so i applaud your intentions. maybe europe should build some more solar and wind farms.
  - jaltekruse 5y ago
    Unfortunately this is about the level of discourse I'm seeing everywhere. Mocking green energy targets. Right now I think this is profoundly unproductive. Ukraine should not have been invaded, Russia violated international law and is committing war crimes. A relatively small nation is holding the line against a world power and all I'm trying to say is maybe enough people in the world care, or should care, about resisting the actions of a dictator. I think if our grandfathers and great grandfathers could fight and die to prevent expansionist nations aggression, maybe the muted 21st century version of what we can do is be organize ourselves a little and tolerate some discomfort.
bitwize 5y ago

frenchman99 5y ago

Being a Frenchman, I think government could push citizens to act, increasing price of Russian gas through massive taxes or something like that. We only import like 20% gas from Russia, from what I understand. Impact would be small for us and would prepare us for potentially more severe restrictions in the futures, helping us become more resilient. Am I missing something?

_3u10 5y ago
The best thing to do is lower taxes on gas to account for the inevitable rise in prices. Once swift bans are in place the priority should be to use Russian oil and gas until the taps are turned off for non-payment.
- gbear605 5y ago
  The current SWIFT bans are only aimed at some Russian banks and seem to intentionally let oil and gas continue to flow.
  - _3u10 5y ago
    Yeah I bet everyone else will switch their commerce to those banks that are able to process.
unfocussed_mike 5y ago
> increasing price of Russian gas through massive taxes or something like that Unless you're using a bottled product -- you may be referring to a bottled product -- you can't choose which gas you as a consumer get, can you? Either way, gas and energy are fairly fungible (more fungible than crypto, hah). It's not really possible to target one supply with massive tax like this without having a knock-on effect on the rest of the energy market. To what extent is the rest of the system resilient to a permanent 20% reduction in supply? That Russian gas might be disproportionately used in generating backup electricity.
kkfx 5y ago
So you actually ask to squeeze more money out of your own people? More specifically poor people, since AFAIK they are for biggest domestic gas consumers in France. UAU.... What you propose IMVHO will happen, not by sanction but by scarcity excuses, and not to damage Russia (actually EU push for a partial SWIFT ban, to II level Russian actors, leaving the biggest aside, while buy from Russia surge yesterday and still today) but to keep financing the Green New Deal and cutting the push toward energy giant windfall taxes.

_3u10 5y ago

It might be an idea to just supply Europe with more oil from Canada / the us.

bottled_poe 5y ago
This seems like it would have the same effect as increasing prices/tariffs, but in a much more convoluted way.
- unfocussed_mike 5y ago
  I think some form of natural gas protectionism is absolutely coming. Speaking as a Brit I would definitely not rule out our government trying it.
jaltekruse 5y ago
Absolutely, but this is more possible if we can start a giant rationing movement. Biden already had to talk about how he was going to keep prices low at the pump while we impose sanctions. This is what we can do as individuals to help with that effort. Unfortunately there isn't a ton of capacity to transport natural gas across the Atlantic, it is possible and we are doing it, but we don't have enough infrastructure and specialized ships for this to replace more than a small fraction of what comes in from Russia through existing pipelines. Nordstream 2 stalling is not a bad step, but that is future harm to Russia, we need to be hurting Russia today as well as preparing for a potential shutoff of all exports.
- _3u10 5y ago
  Keystone XL could be approved that would help the US with more supply freeing transport by other methods for Europe. I’d be willing to ration if there was movement on energy security. If our leaders don’t want to increase supply I’m not really interested.

sirmike_ 5y ago

No thank you.

ZeroGravitas 5y ago

So this is trolling from pro-Russia, and/or anti-renewable activists right? From their 'what not to do' section: > Argue about what led up to this energy situation. Yes, Germany shut down nuclear plants; yes, green energy targets pushed the USA and others to reduce domestic oil and coal production. If you actually want to do something to help, how about following the "Electrify everything in your house guide": https://www.rewiringamerica.org/ https://www.rewiringamerica.org/

jaltekruse 5y ago
I can assure you I am not pro-Russia. I'm happy to take suggestions on edits for the website. I do support green energy targets, but I believe this situation proves the world did some math wrong. Russia is much more aggressive than we were willing to accept even a few weeks ago. The west has been increasing its purchasing of Russian gas and oil despite the fact they had annexed Crimea and supported the separatists. I think we need to talk about what needs to happen in the short term right now. Most of the discussion I am seeing everywhere is people on the right taking shots at Biden and Germany for shutting down domestic production and caring about green energy targets. Part of what I'm trying to get everyone to realize is that the left and right are on the same side. Conservatives that are taking a second to stop mocking the green energy movement are also shouting "this is why energy independence is national security". I'm trying to bridge 2 sides of the debate, I think us lefties need to accept that energy independence in any means possible might be more strategically important in the short run.
- ZeroGravitas 5y ago
  Assuming you are genuine, there's plenty of sensible advice out there already on how to cut your fossil fuel usage. Linking that to the current story of Russia's oligarchs using their fossil profits to invade and kill democratic neighbours gives people an impetus to do things that will actually make their own life better, but that they may not have heard about, because right-wing propaganda has drowned it out. As I shared recently, most countries will have the equivalent of https://energysavingtrust.org.uk/energy-at-home/ https://energysavingtrust.org.uk/energy-at-home/ Which will tell you ways to save money, and keep your house warmer while also reducing fossil fuel usage. Find and disseminate that, the wider knowledge of fossil fuels being an expensive con will do more to destabilize Putin than anything I've read on your page currently. If you want people to tie it closer to Ukraine, point out that these sites will often tell you how much money you will save by making these choices, get people to donate that money to Ukraine or an organisation that is helping us to move off fossil fuels.

ct0 5y ago

There are small steps that you can take. Use hot water sparingly, turning down the thermostat and driving slower can all help. I don't think we need to pass laws to do this though as any changes to a way of life is an attack on freedom.

jaltekruse 5y ago
Yup, my exact point is that tons of people will riot if the government tells them "we need to cut back to fight the Russians". I'm trying to get people to accept ahead of a sudden need to change our behavior or fold to Russian pressures, we can start getting ready for the worst that may come.

noworld 5y ago

Sounds like some mandatory WFH if your job position can handle it would help out here.

foolzcrow 5y ago

deleted 5y ago

[deleted]

qnsi 5y ago

Maybe I would follow some of the advice he's proposing, if it were given by someone from EU, also paying those costs. As I see it, its some American roleplaying real help

jaltekruse 5y ago
This impacts me too, the US does export liquid natural gas that could help some. I'm also trying to encourage everyone to reduce consumption, even in the US, because it could enable some resource re-balancing if it comes to that. Russia coming out of this stronger helps none of us. The way I see it is that without starting this discussion we are steaming towards an inevitable outcome where Putin puts pressure on this issue and the whole world just gives up and lets him do whatever he wants.

jaltekruse 5y ago

Hello @dang this appears to be shadow banned and I don't understand why, it got a lot of interest and I think this discussion is useful for more people to see. Did I violate any HN rule by posting this?

tionis 5y ago
What makes you think this is shadowbanned?
- jaltekruse 5y ago
  It got 30 upvotes and many comments in the first 30 minutes, briefly was on the front page but now it isn't listed at all, I can only find it with search or a direct link.