But that is not what will happen. From all indications of Russia wins this war and installs a puppet regime that regime will meet heavy popular resistance and b

But that is not what will happen. From all indications of Russia wins this war and installs a puppet regime that regime will meet heavy popular resistance and be overthrown as soon as Russia leaves the country. So I do not see much option here other than trying to defend Ukraine and to isolate and/or topple Putin. Your ideas about not provoking Russia are not relevant in the current climate where Putin is hated in Ukraine and where the Ukrainians do not want to be in the Russian sphere of influence. Your strategy might have worked in 2010 but now it is too late.