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Putin doesn't have the time for a siege. The propaganda machine still speaks of a special operation to liberate Ukraine. You can't keep up this picture for lo

Putin doesn't have the time for a siege. The propaganda machine still speaks of a special operation to liberate Ukraine. You can't keep up this picture for long. There are too many communication channels between Ukranians and Russians that will chip away at this warped image of reality.

realusername 5y ago
> You can't keep up this picture for long. There are too many communication channels between Ukranians and Russians that will chip away at this warped image of reality. Especially that on Putin's side, they are only "defending separatist regions", just about any picture of the conflict contradicts the official narrative, there's no way to spin it, they can't even talk about any victories.
kkfx 5y ago
Cutting aqueducts in most cases means people running out of water in short time, considering the actual whether. While it's perfectly possible to store non marginal quantity of water most people do not do that in cities, exactly where water is less available. Contaminating water with mild bacteria not enough to kill 99% of the people, but enough to reduce their capacity is another quick and easy task, water tend to be much controlled nearby sources, not as much below, sure boiling it suffice, but boil demand energy and in most cases having energy in a city it's not that easy, not much wood, almost nothing to produce it in place. Food might last longer but not that longer: most people are not really combatant and do not want to fight till victory or death. Consider a thing: modern society is hyper fragile respect of the past, especially cities where very few people can block many others, almost the opposite of a very large slice of human history. Also modern society are not much ideologically propelled and widespread corruption of most actual government do make most people thinking that one or another does not change almost anything. There is a minority of fanatic, that's what they are, nor really Patriots, who accept a fight at any price, but those tend to be unpopular in their own people even more than in the enemies. Also smart people know that there is no point in fighting a lost war, it's better to inject themselves in the winning order to undermine it slowly from the inside.
- zelphirkalt 5y ago
  Except that Ukrainians know, that they will not have independence as a country, if they lose this. They don't want to be governed from Moscow by the Kremlin. It is not over until it is over. As long as they resist, they inflict a cost on Putin and they know that. They might suffer lots of losses, but they are aware of that and still fighting. Every Russian tank, helicopter, other vehicle they destroy costs a lot of money to replace. For Ukrainians it is a cost of lives, for Russia it is a severe financial loss. If they manage to make it a disaster for Putin, then we might see Putin being replaced and this whole offensive collapse.
  - kkfx 5y ago
    They have already lost even before the war begun simply because they do not have enough firepower and autonomy to win. So their best choice is not try fighting to the death resulting in a totally devastated country that need to be rebuilt, under the winners rules and condition, with their best citizen already dead, but welcome the winner (not joking) to force him to avoid much damage to the invaded country, because their own military and population will not accept a war any longer, and being able to offer a working country that need people who know how things work there to remain afloat, so the enemy can only accept to a certain extent local rulers. Doing so they: - preserve their country in the short term - keep a very little bit of sovereignty they will not get from a full defeat in the short-medium term - have room to sabotage internally the enemy in the mean-long run The sole that benefit form a strenuous resistance in Ukraine is actually the west who get a weakened Russia at the expense of Ukrainian life and richness. The very same that happen with Arab springs, Colorful revolution etc: previous dictatorship get weakened or destroyed to be substituted by others, always at people expense, against people interest. Did you try to imaging who benefit from Ukrainian war? Try to depict the global picture: - the USA and UK that have very deep social unrest due to the economic crisis, the covid governance etc inducted by the push to the neoliberal Green New Deal/Great Reset have them silenced because now there is a war; - the EU that have started to consider established mutually benefit partnership with the Russian Fed. now fall back under the NATO umbrella, against EU interests since the partnership with the USA is well established but it's not fair for EU, while a new one with Russia since they desperately need a partner and China is really not a friend would be far more balanced; - EU gov, facing similar unrest than UK/USA ones now have something else to divert public opinion angry; - Russian gov can justify growing domestic poverty and oppression "due to the war"; - China have the occasion to deeply tie Russia as the sole reliable and strong partner, forcing Russian to cooperate on hi tech military gear and more natural resources, probably enough to overpower USA; So the real winner here are the Chinese, without even a fight. The second winner are the western neoliberals, especially those from WEF/IMF etc since the Green New Deal became an even more important priority WHILE the classic energy sources remain in a very strong position. The third only partial winner is the Putin entourage that winning a war means securing more years in power and more domestic power while actually securing their indefensible western side. The looser? Surely Ukrainian people, BUT ALSO EU people, and ultimately USA/UK people who have their unrest set aside unresolved because "of external priorities". Remember to win a war the very first basic need is knowing who is your enemy...

realusername 5y ago

> You can't keep up this picture for long. There are too many communication channels between Ukranians and Russians that will chip away at this warped image of reality. Especially that on Putin's side, they are only "defending separatist regions", just about any picture of the conflict contradicts the official narrative, there's no way to spin it, they can't even talk about any victories.

kkfx 5y ago

Cutting aqueducts in most cases means people running out of water in short time, considering the actual whether. While it's perfectly possible to store non marginal quantity of water most people do not do that in cities, exactly where water is less available. Contaminating water with mild bacteria not enough to kill 99% of the people, but enough to reduce their capacity is another quick and easy task, water tend to be much controlled nearby sources, not as much below, sure boiling it suffice, but boil demand energy and in most cases having energy in a city it's not that easy, not much wood, almost nothing to produce it in place. Food might last longer but not that longer: most people are not really combatant and do not want to fight till victory or death. Consider a thing: modern society is hyper fragile respect of the past, especially cities where very few people can block many others, almost the opposite of a very large slice of human history. Also modern society are not much ideologically propelled and widespread corruption of most actual government do make most people thinking that one or another does not change almost anything. There is a minority of fanatic, that's what they are, nor really Patriots, who accept a fight at any price, but those tend to be unpopular in their own people even more than in the enemies. Also smart people know that there is no point in fighting a lost war, it's better to inject themselves in the winning order to undermine it slowly from the inside.

zelphirkalt 5y ago
Except that Ukrainians know, that they will not have independence as a country, if they lose this. They don't want to be governed from Moscow by the Kremlin. It is not over until it is over. As long as they resist, they inflict a cost on Putin and they know that. They might suffer lots of losses, but they are aware of that and still fighting. Every Russian tank, helicopter, other vehicle they destroy costs a lot of money to replace. For Ukrainians it is a cost of lives, for Russia it is a severe financial loss. If they manage to make it a disaster for Putin, then we might see Putin being replaced and this whole offensive collapse.
- kkfx 5y ago
  They have already lost even before the war begun simply because they do not have enough firepower and autonomy to win. So their best choice is not try fighting to the death resulting in a totally devastated country that need to be rebuilt, under the winners rules and condition, with their best citizen already dead, but welcome the winner (not joking) to force him to avoid much damage to the invaded country, because their own military and population will not accept a war any longer, and being able to offer a working country that need people who know how things work there to remain afloat, so the enemy can only accept to a certain extent local rulers. Doing so they: - preserve their country in the short term - keep a very little bit of sovereignty they will not get from a full defeat in the short-medium term - have room to sabotage internally the enemy in the mean-long run The sole that benefit form a strenuous resistance in Ukraine is actually the west who get a weakened Russia at the expense of Ukrainian life and richness. The very same that happen with Arab springs, Colorful revolution etc: previous dictatorship get weakened or destroyed to be substituted by others, always at people expense, against people interest. Did you try to imaging who benefit from Ukrainian war? Try to depict the global picture: - the USA and UK that have very deep social unrest due to the economic crisis, the covid governance etc inducted by the push to the neoliberal Green New Deal/Great Reset have them silenced because now there is a war; - the EU that have started to consider established mutually benefit partnership with the Russian Fed. now fall back under the NATO umbrella, against EU interests since the partnership with the USA is well established but it's not fair for EU, while a new one with Russia since they desperately need a partner and China is really not a friend would be far more balanced; - EU gov, facing similar unrest than UK/USA ones now have something else to divert public opinion angry; - Russian gov can justify growing domestic poverty and oppression "due to the war"; - China have the occasion to deeply tie Russia as the sole reliable and strong partner, forcing Russian to cooperate on hi tech military gear and more natural resources, probably enough to overpower USA; So the real winner here are the Chinese, without even a fight. The second winner are the western neoliberals, especially those from WEF/IMF etc since the Green New Deal became an even more important priority WHILE the classic energy sources remain in a very strong position. The third only partial winner is the Putin entourage that winning a war means securing more years in power and more domestic power while actually securing their indefensible western side. The looser? Surely Ukrainian people, BUT ALSO EU people, and ultimately USA/UK people who have their unrest set aside unresolved because "of external priorities". Remember to win a war the very first basic need is knowing who is your enemy...