A few too many known unknowns (and probably a lot of unknown unknowns) to estimate with any confidence, but certainly higher than it seemed a couple of weeks ag

A few too many known unknowns (and probably a lot of unknown unknowns) to estimate with any confidence, but certainly higher than it seemed a couple of weeks ago (which was effectively 0%). My pessimistic take is that it is currently about 2%, or 1-in-50, which is far too high for comfort.