For WMD level nuclear, my guess is quite low. Other user have said in other thread that there are several instances of nuclear threats in cold war era that shou

For WMD level nuclear, my guess is quite low. Other user have said in other thread that there are several instances of nuclear threats in cold war era that should be launched, but didn't because the risk is too great. Talking about Russia, AFAIK only Putin that is cornered enough to want to use it (and his aides I guess). The world, AFAIK, signals that they won't have problem forgiving Russia if the current regime changes. So I guess it's higher for civil war / coup in Russia before nuclear solution. I don't know with smaller tactical nuclear though (district size maybe).