4 ms·

Doesn't Ukraine have too many anti-tank missiles to make occupying Kiev tenable without a scorched Earth campaign? The operator of a javelin can immediately mov

Doesn't Ukraine have too many anti-tank missiles to make occupying Kiev tenable without a scorched Earth campaign? The operator of a javelin can immediately move to civilian cover after firing -- fire and forget. Russian forces can't really be motivated to take those kind of casualties for long.

dogma1138 5y ago
Tanks are ineffective in an urban environment but it also impacts ATGMs that require a line of sight and a relatively long arming distance. Javelins would probably not be that effective if the tanks enter the city but other anti tank weapons like the NLAW are. Also barricades could have them bogged down. But still if the numbers of 500 tanks in Kyiv are true and the Russians are under orders not to retreat under any circumstances holding the city might be difficult. If Russia takes Kyiv even if they don’t kill Zelenskyy they’ll have a bargaining chip to play in the negotiations that would surly have to happen sometime next week if they don’t they don’t have anything. Right now Russia is running out of win conditions or even a way to get out of this situation at all and that is the most dangerous part. If they have nothing to bargain with they can’t come to the negotiating table to get the sanctions removed and they will not issue an unconstitutional surrender under any circumstances other than if there to be a regime change in Russia.
- vkou 5y ago
  > If they have nothing to bargain with they can’t come to the negotiating table to get the sanctions removed Even if they make no progress from this point onwards, their main bargaining chip would be withdrawing from western and central Ukraine.
  - ridiculous_leke 5y ago
    This seems likely. Eastern Ukraine is where bulk of the ethnic Russians live and Putin's justification of the invasion is all about protecting them.
    - jacquesm 5y ago
      Quite a few of those are completely done with Russia and their 'protection'.
      - vkou 5y ago
        I can't say he cares about their opinions. If he did, he wouldn't have subjected them to 8 years of war.
- skissane 5y ago
  > they will not issue an unconstitutional surrender under any circumstances other than if there to be a regime change in Russia Could that be the way this all ends? Maybe the FSB will serve Putin a cup of its world-famous Polonium tea.
  - tim333 5y ago
    Apparently he carries his own water bottle and has food tasters. They'd have to find something else.
    - skissane 5y ago
      Indira Gandhi was shot dead by her own bodyguards.
- tguvot 5y ago
  you should look at javeline specs (Top Attack: 164 yd (150 m) Direct Attack: 71 yd (65 m)) and nlaw specs (minimum 20m?). do you find them long ? also kyiv is built from very long and very wide streets (i was born there). if you have enough javelins/nlaw, it will be not too different from shooting range in urban environment
  - dogma1138 5y ago
    It’s not just the minimum attack range it’s other factors too. Javelin or any ATGM with DFA doesn’t like power lines. Line of sight can also be a problem. IR seekers are more difficult to use due to interference from other IR sources. Wire guided missiles don’t like urban environments either fences, power lines etc. Wireless guided missiles actually do get interference from WiFi. Then you have the tactical issues. Fear of collateral damage, fewer firing positions which make your actions more predicable etc, and due to the nature of the urban environment you have much fewer enemy vehicles exposed at any time. It’s not that ATGMs become totally useless it’s just that they aren’t nearly as useful as on an open battlefield.
    - tguvot 5y ago
      take a drive through kyiv on google street (if it's there) starting with areas where currently russians try to get to downtown.
      - tim333 5y ago
        I was looking on streetview eg https://www.google.co.uk/maps/@50.4511906,30.5154931,3a,75y,180h,90t/data=!3m8!1e1!3m6!1sAF1QipNgQPWUXR6Ojf8WJbFyNp0YbqxqtFN2QZhbmmc!2e10!3e11!6shttps:%2F%2Flh5.googleusercontent.com%2Fp%2FAF1QipNgQPWUXR6Ojf8WJbFyNp0YbqxqtFN2QZhbmmc%3Dw203-h100-k-no-pi-0.69957024-ya315.23755-ro0.056846417-fo100!7i7680!8i3840 https://www.google.co.uk/maps/@50.4511906,30.5154931,3a,75y,... and it seems fairly open. If I was a tank driver I wouldn't count on a couple of power lines saving me from missiles.
        tguvot 5y ago

dogma1138 5y ago

Tanks are ineffective in an urban environment but it also impacts ATGMs that require a line of sight and a relatively long arming distance. Javelins would probably not be that effective if the tanks enter the city but other anti tank weapons like the NLAW are. Also barricades could have them bogged down. But still if the numbers of 500 tanks in Kyiv are true and the Russians are under orders not to retreat under any circumstances holding the city might be difficult. If Russia takes Kyiv even if they don’t kill Zelenskyy they’ll have a bargaining chip to play in the negotiations that would surly have to happen sometime next week if they don’t they don’t have anything. Right now Russia is running out of win conditions or even a way to get out of this situation at all and that is the most dangerous part. If they have nothing to bargain with they can’t come to the negotiating table to get the sanctions removed and they will not issue an unconstitutional surrender under any circumstances other than if there to be a regime change in Russia.

vkou 5y ago
> If they have nothing to bargain with they can’t come to the negotiating table to get the sanctions removed Even if they make no progress from this point onwards, their main bargaining chip would be withdrawing from western and central Ukraine.
- ridiculous_leke 5y ago
  This seems likely. Eastern Ukraine is where bulk of the ethnic Russians live and Putin's justification of the invasion is all about protecting them.
  - jacquesm 5y ago
    Quite a few of those are completely done with Russia and their 'protection'.
    - vkou 5y ago
      I can't say he cares about their opinions. If he did, he wouldn't have subjected them to 8 years of war.
skissane 5y ago
> they will not issue an unconstitutional surrender under any circumstances other than if there to be a regime change in Russia Could that be the way this all ends? Maybe the FSB will serve Putin a cup of its world-famous Polonium tea.
- tim333 5y ago
  Apparently he carries his own water bottle and has food tasters. They'd have to find something else.
  - skissane 5y ago
    Indira Gandhi was shot dead by her own bodyguards.
tguvot 5y ago
you should look at javeline specs (Top Attack: 164 yd (150 m) Direct Attack: 71 yd (65 m)) and nlaw specs (minimum 20m?). do you find them long ? also kyiv is built from very long and very wide streets (i was born there). if you have enough javelins/nlaw, it will be not too different from shooting range in urban environment
- dogma1138 5y ago
  It’s not just the minimum attack range it’s other factors too. Javelin or any ATGM with DFA doesn’t like power lines. Line of sight can also be a problem. IR seekers are more difficult to use due to interference from other IR sources. Wire guided missiles don’t like urban environments either fences, power lines etc. Wireless guided missiles actually do get interference from WiFi. Then you have the tactical issues. Fear of collateral damage, fewer firing positions which make your actions more predicable etc, and due to the nature of the urban environment you have much fewer enemy vehicles exposed at any time. It’s not that ATGMs become totally useless it’s just that they aren’t nearly as useful as on an open battlefield.
  - tguvot 5y ago
    take a drive through kyiv on google street (if it's there) starting with areas where currently russians try to get to downtown.
    - tim333 5y ago
      I was looking on streetview eg https://www.google.co.uk/maps/@50.4511906,30.5154931,3a,75y,180h,90t/data=!3m8!1e1!3m6!1sAF1QipNgQPWUXR6Ojf8WJbFyNp0YbqxqtFN2QZhbmmc!2e10!3e11!6shttps:%2F%2Flh5.googleusercontent.com%2Fp%2FAF1QipNgQPWUXR6Ojf8WJbFyNp0YbqxqtFN2QZhbmmc%3Dw203-h100-k-no-pi-0.69957024-ya315.23755-ro0.056846417-fo100!7i7680!8i3840 https://www.google.co.uk/maps/@50.4511906,30.5154931,3a,75y,... and it seems fairly open. If I was a tank driver I wouldn't count on a couple of power lines saving me from missiles.
      - tguvot 5y ago