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Trying to be short with words: I had zero doubts this invasion was going to happen for at least like, 2 months, possibly more. It’s been reported that a surpri

• IAmGraydon 5y ago
  Gambler’s fallacy. You guessed whether he would invade and you were right. That doesn’t mean your next guess is any more likely to be correct. FWIW, I have had the same concern as you. I don’t really know enough about Putin’s mental state to know whether the concern is valid. I think he would be much more likely to use chemical weapons rather than nuclear.
  • reducesuffering 5y ago
    > Gambler’s fallacy. You guessed whether he would invade and you were right. That doesn’t mean your next guess is any more likely to be correct. What??? This assumes every opinion comes down to a coin flip. This is clearly not the case. Some people are better predictors for things that don't have guaranteed probability of outcomes.
    • stickfigure 5y ago
      Meh. I also predicted this invasion would happen, yet I don't see Putin razing Kyiv or using nuclear weapons. There's plenty of opportunity for everyone to be wrong.