11 ms·

There’s a lot of whistling in the dark in these comments. The actual assessment of the report is quite bleak: yes, Russia has morale issues, and hasn’t achieved

by dash2 5y ago

There’s a lot of whistling in the dark in these comments. The actual assessment of the report is quite bleak: yes, Russia has morale issues, and hasn’t achieved success with its initial plan, but it may be breaking through in the south, and ultimately it has enough forces to overwhelm the Ukrainians on every front.

AlexandrB 5y ago
Yes. Long term it's hard to imagine Ukraine holding off Russia. The best hope is that a costly invasion causes Putin enough domestic issues that he is forced into some kind of compromise.
- dogma1138 5y ago
  If the west keeps supplying when with weapons they might actually hold at least way past the point where Russia can continue the fight. Bellingcat reports that the orders are to take Kyiv by Monday regardless the losses if Ukraine can hold out for longer they might just be in the clear. It’s also clear now that the Ukraine is getting direct intelligence from NATO especially from the global hawk drones and the sigint/elint aircraft it’s been flying their ability to avoid Russian offenses, hit key targets and to mount effective counter attack seem to indicate they do have map cheats enabled. The training they got from NATO forces seem to be paying off in spades too. Russia seem to be closer and closer to the point where their only winning condition is a Grozny scenario and if that happens then there is no chance that NATO would stand by. Conventional warfare with limited civilian casualties would be tolerated leveling cities wouldn’t this isn’t Syria. The EU and NATO knows that even if Russia takes Ukraine they won’t be able to hold it it might take another decade but it eventually would be free again even without major insurgency. Puppet regimes don’t hold and Ukrainians have been far more interconnected with the EU especially through Poland than say Belarus.
  - IgorPartola 5y ago
    To add to this, I got some unconfirmed reports from Kyiv and Lviv of “very obviously American operatives” supplying intelligence, training, etc. to Ukrainian forces.
    - danieljacksonno 5y ago
      Of course. The CIA is probably all over the place, as they should be.
    - phs318u 5y ago
      Source?
  - oblio 5y ago
    If they level Kyiv, the uproar will be huge. And from I see, the Ukrainians will probably force them to do that, if they want to take it.
    - Qem 5y ago
      Can't they just block the roads and wait outside the city until the javelin operators run out of food?
      - oblio 5y ago
        You mean starve the city? That's going to have almost as bad of a reception.
        Qem 5y ago
        Probably not if they let people surrender and treat them reasonably when they do that. It's not like in WWII, where people would be sent to the gas chambers in some concentration camp, if they surrended.
  - erosenbe0 5y ago
    Doesn't Ukraine have too many anti-tank missiles to make occupying Kiev tenable without a scorched Earth campaign? The operator of a javelin can immediately move to civilian cover after firing -- fire and forget. Russian forces can't really be motivated to take those kind of casualties for long.
    - dogma1138 5y ago
      Tanks are ineffective in an urban environment but it also impacts ATGMs that require a line of sight and a relatively long arming distance. Javelins would probably not be that effective if the tanks enter the city but other anti tank weapons like the NLAW are. Also barricades could have them bogged down. But still if the numbers of 500 tanks in Kyiv are true and the Russians are under orders not to retreat under any circumstances holding the city might be difficult. If Russia takes Kyiv even if they don’t kill Zelenskyy they’ll have a bargaining chip to play in the negotiations that would surly have to happen sometime next week if they don’t they don’t have anything. Right now Russia is running out of win conditions or even a way to get out of this situation at all and that is the most dangerous part. If they have nothing to bargain with they can’t come to the negotiating table to get the sanctions removed and they will not issue an unconstitutional surrender under any circumstances other than if there to be a regime change in Russia.
      - vkou 5y ago
        > If they have nothing to bargain with they can’t come to the negotiating table to get the sanctions removed Even if they make no progress from this point onwards, their main bargaining chip would be withdrawing from western and central Ukraine.
        ridiculous_leke 5y ago
        This seems likely. Eastern Ukraine is where bulk of the ethnic Russians live and Putin's justification of the invasion is all about protecting them.
        5y ago
  - pbourke 5y ago
    > Russia seem to be closer and closer to the point where their only winning condition is a Grozny scenario and if that happens then there is no chance that NATO would stand by. If that happens we are facing the very real possibility of escalation to some kind of nuclear war per Russia’s doctrine.
    - traviswt 5y ago
      “Let me do whatever I want or I’ll nuke you.” If we do not save Ukraine due to our own fear, then that’s the effective precedence Putin will have just set. Russian conquering Ukraine is an _escalation_ from NATO perspective.
  - partiallypro 5y ago
    I'm actually surprised Russia isn't patrolling the air along the Polish border and bombing arms shipments. They have to have intelligence of where they are coming in.
    - dogma1138 5y ago
      I have a strong feeling that NATO has signaled them that if they move westwards they’ll find themselves in direct conflict. They can’t risk it especially considering they can’t control the skies over central and eastern Ukraine. Russia hasn’t been able to stop Israel from controlling the skies over Syria either and despite the fact that there is probably a major political component there (Russia doesn’t want Iran to establish themselves in Syria either since it would diminish Syrian dependence on Russia) there is also a very much practical component to it too. Israel can knock Russia out of Syria even if it can’t do it without any losses it can do it without major losses and other than a symbolic attack most likely a Russian sub sinking Israeli naval assets or attacking Israeli gas platforms in the med Russia cannot wage a conventional war on Israel due to the distance and the vulnerability of their logistics chain. The situation in Ukraine isn’t that different Russia knows that it only can operate there as long as NATO allows it too and know it probably knows that better than ever. If we to assume that Russia does not want a nuclear armageddon then we can assume that they would respect which ever red lines NATO has telegraphed to them in private.
    - tim333 5y ago
      Surface to air missiles are a thing.
lambdasquirrel 5y ago
I would add that at the same point in the war with Chechnya, the Russian forces were faring similarly. Ukraine is not Chechnya so there's reason for hope. It's also worth noting that although Russian soldiers aren't with their backs to the wall (whereas the Ukrainian soldiers are), Putin's back certainly is to the wall, and he is not democratically-elected. He has been subject to geopolitical constraints (as will be any Russian leader). Post-war (if it concludes favorably for Ukraine), Putin can still create pain for Ukraine (and Europe) by cutting off gas supplies. He can still do much to hold back Ukraine economically and politically. If we want to score one for democracy, then we would do well not to 1. "win the fight" and 2. get triumphant. If there is a positive resolution for Ukraine in terms of military outcome, the leaders over nonetheless need look for an endgame.
- helge9210 5y ago
  > Putin can still create pain for Ukraine (and Europe) by cutting off gas supplies If you stop pumping gas through the pipeline, you have several options: abandon the field (not reversible, I think), pump it to the atmosphere, burn it, store it in gas form, store it in liquid form. Russia lacks the infrastructure for the last two options.
deleted 5y ago
[deleted]
qqtt 5y ago
After only a couple days, Russia is on the cusp of encircling Kyiv, and has potentially gained control of strategic airports, and hasn't even used any of their big weapons yet. If you track the timeline of the Russian developments versus against something like the Iraq invasion, Russia is actually ahead of schedule in many ways. People are claiming it's a victory when Russia hasn't totally taken over within 72 hours, but is that really any kind of victory?
- hunter-gatherer 5y ago
  Thanks for bringing the contrast with the Iraq invasion up. I was discussing this with a friend today and brought up how a comparitive analysis of Iraq and Ukraine against the US and Russia would look. I don't have the answers and maybe my intuition is completely wrong, but it might look a lot more favorable for Russia than the media outlets are lettibg everyone believe. I recall similar stories of ambushed convoys happening to US troops in Iraq, too.
- tlear 5y ago
  Russia is suffering massively higher attrition then US did in Iraq. Ukranians are actually successfully counter attacking in places. It is all a lot more even. In Iraq it was like a fully grown man beating up a 10 year old. Their plan in general seems unnecessary complex and risky. They are burning through VDV at a fearful rate.. why in the hell did they try all of those unsupported helicopter landings? It all seem like Market Garden all the way to Kyiv. Southern axis are a problem. Order needs to be given for a breakout of the forces holding line of control in the east. Of course we have no idea what reserves and where Ukraine has. Hopefully they did not keep too much too close east and there is a strategic reserve being held somewhere west of Dniepr
  - fkncl0wns 5y ago
  - rightbyte 5y ago
    Breakout to where? I don't think the Ukrainian army can manouver on roads due to Russian air forces. The units are where they are.
zzzeek 5y ago
Ukranians are receiving military and financial aid from a multitude of countries while the international community is moving swiftly to cut off major financial lines to Russia, including the SWIFT system which was discussed here a few days ago. I've seen some threads hypothesizing if Russia can't prevail quickly enough they will begin to have shortages of critical supplies not to mention that the collapse of the ruble may serve to make a longer term invasion politically untenable.
erosenbe0 5y ago
Are Russians really motivated to roll through Kiev and play real world 'Russian Roulette' with javelin missiles reigning down? I pray the hostilities will cease.
- tim333 5y ago
  I think the Russians are pretty unmotivated. I doubt they signed up to attack a peaceful neighbouring democracy to replace the government with another brutal dictator. On the other hand they can't refuse orders without being court martialed or worse. However a potential way out is general incompetence - getting lost, running out of fuel etc which seems a thing https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2022/02/26/russias-lightning-invasion-stalls-ukraine-puts-fierce-resistance/ https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2022/02/26/russias-li...
hourislate 5y ago
- AnimalMuppet 5y ago
  If you leave your enemy no way to retreat, you force them to keep fighting. It may feel satisfying to prosecute Putin. It would be justice, but it may not be wise. (I hate that it is so, but... leave him an out.)
  - smegger001 5y ago
    yeah the only way i see this happening is if there is revolution in russia and I dont see that happening successfully at this point.
  - tim333 5y ago
    The enemy could easily retreat back to Russia this afternoon. It's only Putin's pride preventing that.
- inkyoto 5y ago
  This is a very myopic view of the situation. Russia has been preparing and strategically planning exactly for such a scenario to unfold for over a decade. They have created their own domestic equivalent of SWIFT (called SPFS) which went live in 2017 and which is connected to a handful of foreign banks including a few in Germany and in Switzerland. Whilst it is not as great, SPFS works. China has created their own SWIFT equeivalent (CIPS), and it is likely that Russia will cut over to CIPS soon and start funneling USD and EUR into China either to convert the foreign currency reserves into the Chinese yuan or simply use the Chinese financial system as a bypass / proxy. Some years back the Putin goverenment had also forced Visa and Mastercard to make the Russian branch of their networks fully self-reliant and operational even if the financial link to the global payment networks is severed. Which means that domestically issued Visa and Mastercard cards will continue to operate domestically. They also have their own payment network operated by the major commercial bank albeit the uptake is not as great compared to Visa and MC. Yes, there will be inflation and a financial chaos but they are prepared and are dug in deep. There will be a mayhem but it might also end up being short lived or have a fairly limited impact – we don't know yet. > I think the world should push for this. It is irresponsible to make such statements. Global peace has not looked so fragile and so close to turning into an irreparable mess. West is not playing its card right at the moment by continuously imposing more and more sanctions, by moving NATO troops into bordering countries and not even attempting to offer/signal its willingness to start any negotiation talks. West has fallen into the exact trap Putin had set up for it to justify the current situation and stir up cheap domestic populism and support his «see, they have ganged up on us like we have been telling you all along» rhetoric. Putin's long game is unclear but if he is resolute on the doomsday scenario or if he starts feeling cornered with no escape hatch anywhere near him, what would happen next would happen for all of us, and it would be terrible. West can't continue to impose sanctions endlessly whilst also continuing to villify and demonise an agonising bear without attempting any currently viable alternatives. People from all sides, with no exceptions, have to start making every single attempt to get everyone to sit down around the table and talk. All parties need to start talking to each other to resolve their differences and compromise. Only talking can avert a much bigger disaster.
kcplate 5y ago
I don’t think the expectation is that Ukraine won’t eventually fall and become occupied (I think that is likely). However a spirited resistance that is outside of the Russian expectation seems to me could be a deterrent to Putin taking this imperialism beyond Ukraine and test NATOs resolve in the Baltics. That’s a good thing. Stopping the imperialism with Ukraine I think may also deter other possible bad actors from taking advantage of western and NATO chaos to say lob misses into South Korea and Japan…and other make incursions into Taiwan.
- skissane 5y ago
  > I don’t think the expectation is that Ukraine won’t eventually fall and become occupied (I think that is likely). I think Russia probably can succeed in occupying significant parts of Ukraine, but I think the idea that it will ever succeed in occupying the entire country is much more dubious – especially the westernmost regions, such as Lviv. Far Western Ukraine is the culturally most dissimilar from Russia – being dominated by Ukrainian speakers and with relatively few Russian speakers; having an Eastern Catholic rather than Orthodox majority, and with most of its Orthodox population belonging to the Orthodox Church of Ukraine (OCU) rather than the Moscow-linked Ukrainian Orthodox Church (UOC-MP); a lengthy history of rule by Poland and Austria – all of which makes it a hotbed of Ukrainian nationalism whose population are among the most likely to give sustained resistance to any attempted Russian occupation or rule by a Russian puppet government. Added to that, it is geographically protected by its borders with NATO member states (Poland, Slovakia, Hungary, Romania), which prevents Russia from encircling it, and gives it guaranteed supply lines; and Russia must be wary of fighting near those borders, given the risk that NATO might be drawn into the conflict. Moldova to the south also provides some protection – although Russia could conceivably invade Moldova as well (and indeed already de facto occupies the breakaway Moldovan region of Transnistria), doing so may risk overextension, and given the deep cultural and linguistic links between Romanians and Moldavians, risks drawing Romania (and hence NATO) into the conflict. I really don't think Russia has fully thought this through. It is conceivable the war may end with a split of Ukraine in two, one internationally recognised but with significantly diminished territory, the other a Russian puppet regime only recognised by Russia and its close allies. It is conceivable the war may end with Russia annexing further large chunks of Ukraine, especially the South and the East and maybe even significant parts of Central Ukraine. It seems very unlikely it will end with Russia, or a pro-Russian regime, controlling the whole of Ukraine.
thejackgoode 5y ago
2014 revolution outlook was also dark, especially closer to the end. I was there on maidan since the beginning until the end. I tell you, the level of motivation is underrated by the world. Victory for Putin is unachievable without genocide.
atoav 5y ago
The aspect many forget is the following: Ukraine and the west have an incentive to share news about the war, about civilian and russian casualties. Russia has no incentive at all to share such news before they have a definitve symbol of victory (e.g. a surrender signed by Zelenskyy). This means it could be that the news we are getting are quite overly optimistic (although I personally hope the Ukraine is really doing as well as it seems).
- philistine 5y ago
  Ukraine is doing better than everybody expected. But the good news are always closer and closer to Kiyv, closer and closer to Odessa, etc. Russia is bungling forward, but it’s gaining ground.
ralfn 5y ago
Do the Americans here realize Europe will go to war with Russia? That this is not some abstract far away war for us?
vanusa 5y ago
Is this the article's assessment, or your own? Sounds like you're stretching a bit, in particular with the last point: Ultimately it has enough forces to overwhelm the Ukrainians on every front.

by dash2 5y ago

AlexandrB 5y ago

Yes. Long term it's hard to imagine Ukraine holding off Russia. The best hope is that a costly invasion causes Putin enough domestic issues that he is forced into some kind of compromise.

dogma1138 5y ago
If the west keeps supplying when with weapons they might actually hold at least way past the point where Russia can continue the fight. Bellingcat reports that the orders are to take Kyiv by Monday regardless the losses if Ukraine can hold out for longer they might just be in the clear. It’s also clear now that the Ukraine is getting direct intelligence from NATO especially from the global hawk drones and the sigint/elint aircraft it’s been flying their ability to avoid Russian offenses, hit key targets and to mount effective counter attack seem to indicate they do have map cheats enabled. The training they got from NATO forces seem to be paying off in spades too. Russia seem to be closer and closer to the point where their only winning condition is a Grozny scenario and if that happens then there is no chance that NATO would stand by. Conventional warfare with limited civilian casualties would be tolerated leveling cities wouldn’t this isn’t Syria. The EU and NATO knows that even if Russia takes Ukraine they won’t be able to hold it it might take another decade but it eventually would be free again even without major insurgency. Puppet regimes don’t hold and Ukrainians have been far more interconnected with the EU especially through Poland than say Belarus.
- IgorPartola 5y ago
  To add to this, I got some unconfirmed reports from Kyiv and Lviv of “very obviously American operatives” supplying intelligence, training, etc. to Ukrainian forces.
  - danieljacksonno 5y ago
    Of course. The CIA is probably all over the place, as they should be.
  - phs318u 5y ago
    Source?
- oblio 5y ago
  If they level Kyiv, the uproar will be huge. And from I see, the Ukrainians will probably force them to do that, if they want to take it.
  - Qem 5y ago
    Can't they just block the roads and wait outside the city until the javelin operators run out of food?
    - oblio 5y ago
      You mean starve the city? That's going to have almost as bad of a reception.
      - Qem 5y ago
        Probably not if they let people surrender and treat them reasonably when they do that. It's not like in WWII, where people would be sent to the gas chambers in some concentration camp, if they surrended.
- erosenbe0 5y ago
  Doesn't Ukraine have too many anti-tank missiles to make occupying Kiev tenable without a scorched Earth campaign? The operator of a javelin can immediately move to civilian cover after firing -- fire and forget. Russian forces can't really be motivated to take those kind of casualties for long.
  - dogma1138 5y ago
    Tanks are ineffective in an urban environment but it also impacts ATGMs that require a line of sight and a relatively long arming distance. Javelins would probably not be that effective if the tanks enter the city but other anti tank weapons like the NLAW are. Also barricades could have them bogged down. But still if the numbers of 500 tanks in Kyiv are true and the Russians are under orders not to retreat under any circumstances holding the city might be difficult. If Russia takes Kyiv even if they don’t kill Zelenskyy they’ll have a bargaining chip to play in the negotiations that would surly have to happen sometime next week if they don’t they don’t have anything. Right now Russia is running out of win conditions or even a way to get out of this situation at all and that is the most dangerous part. If they have nothing to bargain with they can’t come to the negotiating table to get the sanctions removed and they will not issue an unconstitutional surrender under any circumstances other than if there to be a regime change in Russia.
    - vkou 5y ago
      > If they have nothing to bargain with they can’t come to the negotiating table to get the sanctions removed Even if they make no progress from this point onwards, their main bargaining chip would be withdrawing from western and central Ukraine.
      - ridiculous_leke 5y ago
        This seems likely. Eastern Ukraine is where bulk of the ethnic Russians live and Putin's justification of the invasion is all about protecting them.
        5y ago
- pbourke 5y ago
  > Russia seem to be closer and closer to the point where their only winning condition is a Grozny scenario and if that happens then there is no chance that NATO would stand by. If that happens we are facing the very real possibility of escalation to some kind of nuclear war per Russia’s doctrine.
  - traviswt 5y ago
    “Let me do whatever I want or I’ll nuke you.” If we do not save Ukraine due to our own fear, then that’s the effective precedence Putin will have just set. Russian conquering Ukraine is an _escalation_ from NATO perspective.
- partiallypro 5y ago
  I'm actually surprised Russia isn't patrolling the air along the Polish border and bombing arms shipments. They have to have intelligence of where they are coming in.
  - dogma1138 5y ago
    I have a strong feeling that NATO has signaled them that if they move westwards they’ll find themselves in direct conflict. They can’t risk it especially considering they can’t control the skies over central and eastern Ukraine. Russia hasn’t been able to stop Israel from controlling the skies over Syria either and despite the fact that there is probably a major political component there (Russia doesn’t want Iran to establish themselves in Syria either since it would diminish Syrian dependence on Russia) there is also a very much practical component to it too. Israel can knock Russia out of Syria even if it can’t do it without any losses it can do it without major losses and other than a symbolic attack most likely a Russian sub sinking Israeli naval assets or attacking Israeli gas platforms in the med Russia cannot wage a conventional war on Israel due to the distance and the vulnerability of their logistics chain. The situation in Ukraine isn’t that different Russia knows that it only can operate there as long as NATO allows it too and know it probably knows that better than ever. If we to assume that Russia does not want a nuclear armageddon then we can assume that they would respect which ever red lines NATO has telegraphed to them in private.
  - tim333 5y ago
    Surface to air missiles are a thing.

lambdasquirrel 5y ago

I would add that at the same point in the war with Chechnya, the Russian forces were faring similarly. Ukraine is not Chechnya so there's reason for hope. It's also worth noting that although Russian soldiers aren't with their backs to the wall (whereas the Ukrainian soldiers are), Putin's back certainly is to the wall, and he is not democratically-elected. He has been subject to geopolitical constraints (as will be any Russian leader). Post-war (if it concludes favorably for Ukraine), Putin can still create pain for Ukraine (and Europe) by cutting off gas supplies. He can still do much to hold back Ukraine economically and politically. If we want to score one for democracy, then we would do well not to 1. "win the fight" and 2. get triumphant. If there is a positive resolution for Ukraine in terms of military outcome, the leaders over nonetheless need look for an endgame.

helge9210 5y ago
> Putin can still create pain for Ukraine (and Europe) by cutting off gas supplies If you stop pumping gas through the pipeline, you have several options: abandon the field (not reversible, I think), pump it to the atmosphere, burn it, store it in gas form, store it in liquid form. Russia lacks the infrastructure for the last two options.

deleted 5y ago

[deleted]

qqtt 5y ago

After only a couple days, Russia is on the cusp of encircling Kyiv, and has potentially gained control of strategic airports, and hasn't even used any of their big weapons yet. If you track the timeline of the Russian developments versus against something like the Iraq invasion, Russia is actually ahead of schedule in many ways. People are claiming it's a victory when Russia hasn't totally taken over within 72 hours, but is that really any kind of victory?

hunter-gatherer 5y ago
Thanks for bringing the contrast with the Iraq invasion up. I was discussing this with a friend today and brought up how a comparitive analysis of Iraq and Ukraine against the US and Russia would look. I don't have the answers and maybe my intuition is completely wrong, but it might look a lot more favorable for Russia than the media outlets are lettibg everyone believe. I recall similar stories of ambushed convoys happening to US troops in Iraq, too.
tlear 5y ago
Russia is suffering massively higher attrition then US did in Iraq. Ukranians are actually successfully counter attacking in places. It is all a lot more even. In Iraq it was like a fully grown man beating up a 10 year old. Their plan in general seems unnecessary complex and risky. They are burning through VDV at a fearful rate.. why in the hell did they try all of those unsupported helicopter landings? It all seem like Market Garden all the way to Kyiv. Southern axis are a problem. Order needs to be given for a breakout of the forces holding line of control in the east. Of course we have no idea what reserves and where Ukraine has. Hopefully they did not keep too much too close east and there is a strategic reserve being held somewhere west of Dniepr
- fkncl0wns 5y ago
- rightbyte 5y ago
  Breakout to where? I don't think the Ukrainian army can manouver on roads due to Russian air forces. The units are where they are.

zzzeek 5y ago

Ukranians are receiving military and financial aid from a multitude of countries while the international community is moving swiftly to cut off major financial lines to Russia, including the SWIFT system which was discussed here a few days ago. I've seen some threads hypothesizing if Russia can't prevail quickly enough they will begin to have shortages of critical supplies not to mention that the collapse of the ruble may serve to make a longer term invasion politically untenable.

erosenbe0 5y ago

Are Russians really motivated to roll through Kiev and play real world 'Russian Roulette' with javelin missiles reigning down? I pray the hostilities will cease.

tim333 5y ago
I think the Russians are pretty unmotivated. I doubt they signed up to attack a peaceful neighbouring democracy to replace the government with another brutal dictator. On the other hand they can't refuse orders without being court martialed or worse. However a potential way out is general incompetence - getting lost, running out of fuel etc which seems a thing https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2022/02/26/russias-lightning-invasion-stalls-ukraine-puts-fierce-resistance/ https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2022/02/26/russias-li...

hourislate 5y ago

AnimalMuppet 5y ago
If you leave your enemy no way to retreat, you force them to keep fighting. It may feel satisfying to prosecute Putin. It would be justice, but it may not be wise. (I hate that it is so, but... leave him an out.)
- smegger001 5y ago
  yeah the only way i see this happening is if there is revolution in russia and I dont see that happening successfully at this point.
- tim333 5y ago
  The enemy could easily retreat back to Russia this afternoon. It's only Putin's pride preventing that.
inkyoto 5y ago
This is a very myopic view of the situation. Russia has been preparing and strategically planning exactly for such a scenario to unfold for over a decade. They have created their own domestic equivalent of SWIFT (called SPFS) which went live in 2017 and which is connected to a handful of foreign banks including a few in Germany and in Switzerland. Whilst it is not as great, SPFS works. China has created their own SWIFT equeivalent (CIPS), and it is likely that Russia will cut over to CIPS soon and start funneling USD and EUR into China either to convert the foreign currency reserves into the Chinese yuan or simply use the Chinese financial system as a bypass / proxy. Some years back the Putin goverenment had also forced Visa and Mastercard to make the Russian branch of their networks fully self-reliant and operational even if the financial link to the global payment networks is severed. Which means that domestically issued Visa and Mastercard cards will continue to operate domestically. They also have their own payment network operated by the major commercial bank albeit the uptake is not as great compared to Visa and MC. Yes, there will be inflation and a financial chaos but they are prepared and are dug in deep. There will be a mayhem but it might also end up being short lived or have a fairly limited impact – we don't know yet. > I think the world should push for this. It is irresponsible to make such statements. Global peace has not looked so fragile and so close to turning into an irreparable mess. West is not playing its card right at the moment by continuously imposing more and more sanctions, by moving NATO troops into bordering countries and not even attempting to offer/signal its willingness to start any negotiation talks. West has fallen into the exact trap Putin had set up for it to justify the current situation and stir up cheap domestic populism and support his «see, they have ganged up on us like we have been telling you all along» rhetoric. Putin's long game is unclear but if he is resolute on the doomsday scenario or if he starts feeling cornered with no escape hatch anywhere near him, what would happen next would happen for all of us, and it would be terrible. West can't continue to impose sanctions endlessly whilst also continuing to villify and demonise an agonising bear without attempting any currently viable alternatives. People from all sides, with no exceptions, have to start making every single attempt to get everyone to sit down around the table and talk. All parties need to start talking to each other to resolve their differences and compromise. Only talking can avert a much bigger disaster.

kcplate 5y ago

I don’t think the expectation is that Ukraine won’t eventually fall and become occupied (I think that is likely). However a spirited resistance that is outside of the Russian expectation seems to me could be a deterrent to Putin taking this imperialism beyond Ukraine and test NATOs resolve in the Baltics. That’s a good thing. Stopping the imperialism with Ukraine I think may also deter other possible bad actors from taking advantage of western and NATO chaos to say lob misses into South Korea and Japan…and other make incursions into Taiwan.

skissane 5y ago
> I don’t think the expectation is that Ukraine won’t eventually fall and become occupied (I think that is likely). I think Russia probably can succeed in occupying significant parts of Ukraine, but I think the idea that it will ever succeed in occupying the entire country is much more dubious – especially the westernmost regions, such as Lviv. Far Western Ukraine is the culturally most dissimilar from Russia – being dominated by Ukrainian speakers and with relatively few Russian speakers; having an Eastern Catholic rather than Orthodox majority, and with most of its Orthodox population belonging to the Orthodox Church of Ukraine (OCU) rather than the Moscow-linked Ukrainian Orthodox Church (UOC-MP); a lengthy history of rule by Poland and Austria – all of which makes it a hotbed of Ukrainian nationalism whose population are among the most likely to give sustained resistance to any attempted Russian occupation or rule by a Russian puppet government. Added to that, it is geographically protected by its borders with NATO member states (Poland, Slovakia, Hungary, Romania), which prevents Russia from encircling it, and gives it guaranteed supply lines; and Russia must be wary of fighting near those borders, given the risk that NATO might be drawn into the conflict. Moldova to the south also provides some protection – although Russia could conceivably invade Moldova as well (and indeed already de facto occupies the breakaway Moldovan region of Transnistria), doing so may risk overextension, and given the deep cultural and linguistic links between Romanians and Moldavians, risks drawing Romania (and hence NATO) into the conflict. I really don't think Russia has fully thought this through. It is conceivable the war may end with a split of Ukraine in two, one internationally recognised but with significantly diminished territory, the other a Russian puppet regime only recognised by Russia and its close allies. It is conceivable the war may end with Russia annexing further large chunks of Ukraine, especially the South and the East and maybe even significant parts of Central Ukraine. It seems very unlikely it will end with Russia, or a pro-Russian regime, controlling the whole of Ukraine.

thejackgoode 5y ago

2014 revolution outlook was also dark, especially closer to the end. I was there on maidan since the beginning until the end. I tell you, the level of motivation is underrated by the world. Victory for Putin is unachievable without genocide.

atoav 5y ago

The aspect many forget is the following: Ukraine and the west have an incentive to share news about the war, about civilian and russian casualties. Russia has no incentive at all to share such news before they have a definitve symbol of victory (e.g. a surrender signed by Zelenskyy). This means it could be that the news we are getting are quite overly optimistic (although I personally hope the Ukraine is really doing as well as it seems).

philistine 5y ago
Ukraine is doing better than everybody expected. But the good news are always closer and closer to Kiyv, closer and closer to Odessa, etc. Russia is bungling forward, but it’s gaining ground.

ralfn 5y ago

Do the Americans here realize Europe will go to war with Russia? That this is not some abstract far away war for us?

vanusa 5y ago

Is this the article's assessment, or your own? Sounds like you're stretching a bit, in particular with the last point: Ultimately it has enough forces to overwhelm the Ukrainians on every front.