Initially I was looking at this situation as a Napoleonic move, and it most probably still is. Nevertheless, to add some nuance to it, the situation, as it unfo

Initially I was looking at this situation as a Napoleonic move, and it most probably still is. Nevertheless, to add some nuance to it, the situation, as it unfolds, plays to the core argument by Putin, in between the anti-nazi fusion with Zionismophobia crazy talk for his Russian/local version of conspiracy theorists. And that core argument was that he had no choice and that this a survival rather than an aggression move. At the moment, the struggles his army demonstrates, centered on lack of resources, lack of superiority on intelligence etc. are struggles related to capabilities where any of his advantages deteriorate with time. So he is attacking now, while there still is time. The alternative would be to wait 1 year and have Ukraine a member of Nato and a formidable enemy knocking on his door at any time? Doubt it, but it is his storyline to oligarchs. I hope this does not give Putin an argument but it goes to prove that I am at best a bad strategist, only coming up with explanations ex-post and he could be a mediocre strategist, but I sincerely doubt it given his history and his experience out of running a proxy war in Ukraine for 8 years. The withdrawal of US troops from Afghanistan did not help either and is the only thing that would explain timing from my perspective. He knows/feels that US is pulling back in preparation for something, but whether that something is the explicitly stated Asia race against China or an easy win against Russia cannot be assessed. If it was the latter he played right into it. I would think it was worth to him waiting for next US elections, regardless the outcome, as US are hitting some known fault lines in their political discourse, EU could grow more dependent on energy front in the meantime etc.