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What is the actual goal here? Can someone please explain to me why this is all happening? What an absolute disgrace that we fight each other over BS orders. So

What is the actual goal here? Can someone please explain to me why this is all happening? What an absolute disgrace that we fight each other over BS orders. So many lives, especially of young people, lost for what?

robbedpeter 5y ago
Putin's whimsy. No other reason, no rational nation state with complex motivations lurking in the machinery of decision. This is 100% Putin with a wild hair up his ass, wanting to return Russia to a semblance of its soviet territories.
- jprd 5y ago
  Vladdy has been in near isolation during COVID and looks unhinged. Did this on his own, no oligarchs. Now oligarchs are trapped, no assets, cut-off from most of their funds. Gambled, this time he lost it all.
  - robbedpeter 5y ago
    Good ol' Vlad might get himself killed over this. Then Russia will have to go through a legitimate election for at least one cycle, hopefully?
    - redisman 5y ago
      Hah
      - robbedpeter 5y ago
        One can hope that history repeats. Tyrants and strongmen aren't known for dying peacefully in bed. Then again, a couple hundred billion dollars can buy a lot of bodyguards, tasters, and body doubles.
        redisman 5y ago
        Free and fair elections in Russia are maybe less likely than Putin getting assassinated
redisman 5y ago
Putin believes in the old Russian nationalist philosophy of “gathering the Russian lands”. Basically to reform large parts of the ex-USSR into a Russian empire. Because of reasons - he wrote a long article on it but the Kremlin website is being DDOSd
blunte 5y ago
- afarrell 5y ago
  Note that his mother barely survived the nazi siege of Leningrad. Lots of Russians have similar intergenerational trauma. That is why he is talking about “denazification”. https://www.wnycstudios.org/podcasts/anthropocene-reviewed/episodes/anthropocene-reviewed-tetris-and-seed-potatoes-leningrad https://www.wnycstudios.org/podcasts/anthropocene-reviewed/e...
  - blunte 5y ago
    Ok, then what I said was not entirely fair to him. But at the same time, it is a common scenario where one human suffers and then shares that suffering upon others. My privileged perspective is different from that of many other people, but I must believe that the best path to success and happiness for all is coordination rather than force and might. I also know that someone in his position lacks for nothing by any external perspective. We cannot give him benefit of the doubt; he isn't interested in the betterment of his people, else he would not have allowed a few people to get ownership of major public assets, leaving the general population low while a few people became absurdely rich. Therefore, his motivations now are for his own appearance and self esteem. If he makes a more powerful Russia, then he is worthy of the photo of him proudly riding a horse bare-chested.
    - afarrell 5y ago
      > it is a common scenario where one human suffers and then shares that suffering upon others. All too true His actions over the decades towards potential electoral opposition have put him in a position where the full weight of Russian history is upon him personally. If Russia was democratic, there would be a deep bench of leaders to relieve the stress. It now is too hard for him to tell the difference between a threat to his ego and a threat which could shatter Russia into civil war. Thus, tyranny.
rossdavidh 5y ago
As best I can tell, Putin thought that Ukraine was about to be admitted to NATO, and didn't want NATO troops on his borders in both the Baltic states and Ukraine, so he invaded to preempt this. It seems to me that the threat of invasion would have worked as well as actually invading, at making NATO uneasy about admitting Ukraine, and would have involved far fewer downsides for Russia. I have long thought Putin to be a mean but smart individual, but even if Russia eventually accomplishes the conquest of Ukraine, this looks like a blunder on his part, not only a moral error (although certainly also that).
- SubiculumCode 5y ago
  Putin and everybody knew that Ukraine was never going to be included into NATO. Putin is using this as cover for imperialistic narcissistic brain rot.
- volkl48 5y ago
  NATO can't admit anyone with a territorial dispute. Short of Ukraine officially ceding Crimea and the other occupied areas, Ukraine would never be able to be admitted to NATO in it's post-2014 status.
seandoe 5y ago
Ukraine's warming to the ways of the west makes Russia nervous. Access to the black sea is a strategic issue. Reservoirs in Crimea drying up because their source is in Ukraine proper. I don't defend any of this aggression in the least, but if mexico and Canada started warming up to China, you could imagine how the US would react. Once again, I don't support or defend Russia in this situation, but at the same time I don't think it's the work of a madman.
- oblio 5y ago
  > Access to the black sea is a strategic issue. Crimea is a good strategic resource, but Russia already has over 1000 km of Black Sea coastline...
- infamia 5y ago
  Putin has clearly stated that he does not believe the Ukrainians are a separate people. That should tell you everything you need to know what this is truly about. Putting that aside for a moment, Germany's economy is almost three times the size of Russia's. The UK's economy is twice as big. Russia's economy is smaller than Italy and is just a bit larger than Spain. Russia is simply not powerful enough, nor important enough, to expect a buffer of satellite states like they had 50 years ago.
tanbogy 5y ago
It's easy to just call it Putin's whim but from a strategic point of view and to help see stuff like this in the future is probably worth at least reviewing some issues from the Russian point of view. A few things that contribute to Russian goals here: A. "paypack" for the overthrow of the long standing pro Russian Ukrainian government in 2013. Putin would like the status quo returned to 2012 - weak buffer state reliant on Russia (Belarus 2.0) B. historical significance of Ukraine joining the old western cold war army (nato) would be devastating. Russia may have calculated this is the last chance to stop that or at least delay it for a generation C. finish the 2014 war. Get the land bridge to Crimea and unify the Russian speaking west and south western Ukrainian regions (imho this is goal number 1 since it give massive economic and political benefits.) There's probably loads of other goals, but they are the first to come to mind. Note: I'm not agreeing with any of them, just pointing out they are likely there and we would probably be aware of them.
ukraineally 5y ago
>What is the actual goal here? Can someone please explain to me why this is all happening? Well in Putin's own words, it seems obvious and clear. Ukraine's government are Nazis who are committing genocide over Russians in the new republics as Ukraine invaded the republics to reclaim the land. “As I said in my previous address, one cannot look at what is happening there without compassion. It was simply impossible to endure all this. It was necessary to stop this nightmare immediately – the genocide against the millions of people living there, who rely only on Russia, hope only on us. It was these aspirations, feelings, pain of people that were for us the main motive for deciding to recognise the people’s republics of Donbas.” “What I think is important to emphasise further. In order to achieve their own goals, the leading NATO countries support extreme nationalists and neo-Nazis in Ukraine in everything, who, in turn, will never forgive the Crimeans and Sevastopol residents for their free choice – reunification with Russia.” While all this nazi crap is absurd. We can also discount the possibility that Putin has been misled. He's ex-KGB. They were actively trained to be able to avoid exactly that. Instead this is obvious propaganda. The president of ukraine is jewish and target #1. Obviously not a nazi, this was more to mislead the russian duma and russian people. >What an absolute disgrace that we fight each other over BS orders. So many lives, especially of young people, lost for what? We have to figure out the 'they didnt go into iraq for wmds, they went there for oil'. It's all pure speculation. Go to: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Economy_of_Ukraine https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Economy_of_Ukraine and throw a dart. Whatever you hit, that's it. There is this: https://venturebeat.com/2022/02/24/ukraine-supplies-90-percent-of-us-semiconductor-grade-neon-what-it-means-to-chip-supply-chain/ https://venturebeat.com/2022/02/24/ukraine-supplies-90-perce... If you have been following... there's about a trillion $ of investment in new chip fabs. Everyone in the world is rushing to build chip fabs. Russia taking this neon production could give them the edge they need... To what end? The thing for me? there's nothing in ukraine that makes it good there. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Neon#Production https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Neon#Production It can basically be done anywhere. And what's even the point? Russia has basically been excluded from ever making any value from this.
- redisman 5y ago
  It sounds like any steel smelting operation can start capturing the fumes and pull out the neon. If it was lucrative others would start doing it
paxys 5y ago
The goal is to topple Ukraine's leadership and install a puppet who will be more aligned with Russia than the west (see Belarus as an example). An economically prosperous, stable, democratic, NATO-allied neighbor is Putin's worst nightmare.
- VictorPath 5y ago
  > The goal is to topple Ukraine's leadership and install a puppet who will be more aligned with So like the western-backed Euromaidan basically (without Victoria Nuland handing out cookies in Maidan square).
  - PeterisP 5y ago
    I don't recall western missiles bombing Kyiv to support Euromaidan or invading tank columns to overthrow Yanukovych. Ukrainians are the only ones who have the moral right to choose what they will be aligned with. Perhaps you can coach them or bribe them with trade (or lack of trade), but a violent invasion is absolutely not like that, it's not even comparable to what happened during Euromaidan.
- kilroy123 5y ago
  This is correct. Putin has seen Ukraine turn more and more westward. Flirting and thinking about joining the EU and NATO. Which would mean "NATO" (US) troops right over the board and mere hours away form Moscow. Simply unacceptable to Putin.
  - rootusrootus 5y ago
    Aren't there NATO countries right next to Ukraine that are just as close to Moscow already? Having Ukraine join NATO would be a bitter pill to swallow, perhaps, but it wouldn't bring NATO any closer than it is today. And madman though Putin may seem to be, he knows NATO isn't an offensive organization.
    - VictorPath 5y ago
credit_guy 5y ago
The actual goal of Putin is to do what Bismark did in 1860-70. Bismark used military force to achieve mind-blowing gains. Not only did Prussia conquer a number of territories from Denmark, Austria and France, but the other German states decided it's a good time to join the "Union", and so modern Germany was created. Before Bismark came to power, Prussia was the weakest of the 5 European Great Powers. When he left, it was by far the strongest. Putin's Russia right now is less than 150 million people. The rest of the former Soviet states have about as much together. If he conquers Ukraine, then most of them will decide it's time to get back to the "Federation", if they know what's good for them (the exception would be the three Baltic states which are NATO members). If Putin's gambit works out, he reconstitutes the Soviet Union (itself the reconstitution of the Tsarist Empire), and makes a country of close to 300 million people. For you and me the population is not a very relevant number, but for him it's the number of potential soldiers that he can use to bully Europe.
- emilsedgh 5y ago
  > for him it's the number of potential soldiers that he can use to bully Europe. And number of consumers. Want a big economy? You need a big population.
  - lethologica 5y ago
    is that true with globalisation though?
InternetPerson 5y ago
I found this to be a compelling take on Russia's motivations for invading Ukraine: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=If61baWF4GE https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=If61baWF4GE The narrator argues that it's largely about fossil fuels.
- pmorici 5y ago
  I think this is the real answer though you won't ever hear them say it out loud. Gas was the reason they got involved in Syria too. Keeping Assad in power enabled them to stop a gas pipeline from being built from the middle east through Syria to the EU. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Qatar%E2%80%93Turkey_pipeline https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Qatar%E2%80%93Turkey_pipeline
stjohnswarts 5y ago
Obviously Putin is trying to put the USSR back together again because he's getting old and has to do something desperate to have any chance of obtaining his dream. If Ukraine were to become a prosperous democracy his fellow Russians might consider that they might have a better life under a self chosen government rather than a dictator like Putin because Ukraine shares a lot in common with Russians and many cultural/familial ties.
jltsiren 5y ago
The immediate goal is overthrowing the current regime in Ukraine. That much is obvious. Beyond that, nobody really knows. At a very high level, Putin wants to maintain a buffer zone between Russia and NATO. Russia doesn't have the resources to occupy and/or annex Ukraine, at least not in the long term. Putin must know that. He can't hope to install a stable puppet government, because Ukrainians would overthrow the puppet in a revolution. He must know that as well. Maybe Putin wants to cripple Ukraine permanently. Take Odesa, and Ukraine loses access to the sea. Take control of enough territory that it doesn't matter what NATO and the EU will do with the remaining Ukraine. Or maybe Putin has become an idealist instead of the pragmatist he was. Maybe his actions are now guided by beliefs rather than expected consequences. If Putin believes that the former glory of Russia must be restored by any means necessary, he may drive Russia into ruin by pursuing that.
pmorici 5y ago
My two cents; If you look past the false rhetoric meant to galvanize the population it is about the ability to maintain coercive influence over their neighbors for economic reasons. To do this they employ intimidation and if all else fails military force. Russia is run like a mob crime family where the oligarchs appeal to Putin to solve their business/economic issues using the power of the state and they presumably give him a cut of the profits which is where his reportedly vast secret wealth comes from. Ukraine becoming closer to the EU economically over the past 10 years is what this is ultimately about. People saying this is mostly about NATO expansion are missing the real issue. NATO aspirations are symptom not the cause of the dispute. If a country is in NATO it limits the means Russia has to coerce them. ie: it takes military intervention off the table since they would not be picking a fight with only one country but the alliance.
tguvot 5y ago
Supposedly this book is kinda been Putin's manual and author is his guru https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Foundations_of_Geopolitics https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Foundations_of_Geopolitics . If you will skim through article, it's kinda becomes more clear. Opinion expressed there with regards to Ukraine are shared by many Russians, based on what I observed.
s1artibartfast 5y ago
You have to break it down by the parties involved: Russia, NATO, and Ukraine. 1) Russia. Russian power is waning, and at the same time Ukraine-NATO integration is approaching the point of irreversibility. Russia sees the potential for a NATO armed Ukraine with US tropps, missiles, and possibly nukes 5 minutes from Moscow as an unacceptable security risk. From the Russian perspective the window to stop Ukraine is closing, and they have to act before NATO armaments has made Ukraine is too strong, and Russia is too weak. 2) NATO. NATO and the US would like to have the additional leverage over Russia provided by bases in Ukraine in the long term. Each additional country in NATO adds to it's strength, and removes a potential threat in the future. NATO wont give Ukraine full membership today, because it does not have full control of it's territory and widespread corruption within Ukraine. NATO, is willing to provide a slow path to membership because it is a Win-win situation. If Russia doesn't act, NATO slowly gets more leverage over Russia (NATO win). If Russia invades Ukraine, Russian forces, economy, and relations are damaged (another NATO win). 3) Ukraine. Essentially stuck in the middle, with no good options. They can grow closer to Russia or the EU, and each has downsides. Russia is a waning power and offers less economically. EU is more prosperous but they must join a military alliance against Russia. If they ever get full NATO membership, the Russian threat is greatly reduced, but NATO application is an extremely long process during which the threat is greatly increased.
- merek 5y ago
  An insightful summary. Thank you!
tim333 5y ago
My take - you've got two models of running the world. a) The old one of Empires - Russia controls Ukraine, Belarus etc. It's threatened by Ukraine moving to the west. b) The current one where countries are independent democracies with governments chosen by the people. Putin's been reading too many history books about a) The west has to go with b) - we can't really say to the Ukranians you'll never be able to join the EU/nato in spite of your people wanting to because you are property of the Russian empire. Putin needs to get with the times really.

robbedpeter 5y ago

Putin's whimsy. No other reason, no rational nation state with complex motivations lurking in the machinery of decision. This is 100% Putin with a wild hair up his ass, wanting to return Russia to a semblance of its soviet territories.

jprd 5y ago
Vladdy has been in near isolation during COVID and looks unhinged. Did this on his own, no oligarchs. Now oligarchs are trapped, no assets, cut-off from most of their funds. Gambled, this time he lost it all.
- robbedpeter 5y ago
  Good ol' Vlad might get himself killed over this. Then Russia will have to go through a legitimate election for at least one cycle, hopefully?
  - redisman 5y ago
    Hah
    - robbedpeter 5y ago
      One can hope that history repeats. Tyrants and strongmen aren't known for dying peacefully in bed. Then again, a couple hundred billion dollars can buy a lot of bodyguards, tasters, and body doubles.
      - redisman 5y ago
        Free and fair elections in Russia are maybe less likely than Putin getting assassinated

redisman 5y ago

Putin believes in the old Russian nationalist philosophy of “gathering the Russian lands”. Basically to reform large parts of the ex-USSR into a Russian empire. Because of reasons - he wrote a long article on it but the Kremlin website is being DDOSd

blunte 5y ago

afarrell 5y ago
Note that his mother barely survived the nazi siege of Leningrad. Lots of Russians have similar intergenerational trauma. That is why he is talking about “denazification”. https://www.wnycstudios.org/podcasts/anthropocene-reviewed/episodes/anthropocene-reviewed-tetris-and-seed-potatoes-leningrad https://www.wnycstudios.org/podcasts/anthropocene-reviewed/e...
- blunte 5y ago
  Ok, then what I said was not entirely fair to him. But at the same time, it is a common scenario where one human suffers and then shares that suffering upon others. My privileged perspective is different from that of many other people, but I must believe that the best path to success and happiness for all is coordination rather than force and might. I also know that someone in his position lacks for nothing by any external perspective. We cannot give him benefit of the doubt; he isn't interested in the betterment of his people, else he would not have allowed a few people to get ownership of major public assets, leaving the general population low while a few people became absurdely rich. Therefore, his motivations now are for his own appearance and self esteem. If he makes a more powerful Russia, then he is worthy of the photo of him proudly riding a horse bare-chested.
  - afarrell 5y ago
    > it is a common scenario where one human suffers and then shares that suffering upon others. All too true His actions over the decades towards potential electoral opposition have put him in a position where the full weight of Russian history is upon him personally. If Russia was democratic, there would be a deep bench of leaders to relieve the stress. It now is too hard for him to tell the difference between a threat to his ego and a threat which could shatter Russia into civil war. Thus, tyranny.

rossdavidh 5y ago

As best I can tell, Putin thought that Ukraine was about to be admitted to NATO, and didn't want NATO troops on his borders in both the Baltic states and Ukraine, so he invaded to preempt this. It seems to me that the threat of invasion would have worked as well as actually invading, at making NATO uneasy about admitting Ukraine, and would have involved far fewer downsides for Russia. I have long thought Putin to be a mean but smart individual, but even if Russia eventually accomplishes the conquest of Ukraine, this looks like a blunder on his part, not only a moral error (although certainly also that).

SubiculumCode 5y ago
Putin and everybody knew that Ukraine was never going to be included into NATO. Putin is using this as cover for imperialistic narcissistic brain rot.
volkl48 5y ago
NATO can't admit anyone with a territorial dispute. Short of Ukraine officially ceding Crimea and the other occupied areas, Ukraine would never be able to be admitted to NATO in it's post-2014 status.

seandoe 5y ago

Ukraine's warming to the ways of the west makes Russia nervous. Access to the black sea is a strategic issue. Reservoirs in Crimea drying up because their source is in Ukraine proper. I don't defend any of this aggression in the least, but if mexico and Canada started warming up to China, you could imagine how the US would react. Once again, I don't support or defend Russia in this situation, but at the same time I don't think it's the work of a madman.

oblio 5y ago
> Access to the black sea is a strategic issue. Crimea is a good strategic resource, but Russia already has over 1000 km of Black Sea coastline...
infamia 5y ago
Putin has clearly stated that he does not believe the Ukrainians are a separate people. That should tell you everything you need to know what this is truly about. Putting that aside for a moment, Germany's economy is almost three times the size of Russia's. The UK's economy is twice as big. Russia's economy is smaller than Italy and is just a bit larger than Spain. Russia is simply not powerful enough, nor important enough, to expect a buffer of satellite states like they had 50 years ago.

tanbogy 5y ago

It's easy to just call it Putin's whim but from a strategic point of view and to help see stuff like this in the future is probably worth at least reviewing some issues from the Russian point of view. A few things that contribute to Russian goals here: A. "paypack" for the overthrow of the long standing pro Russian Ukrainian government in 2013. Putin would like the status quo returned to 2012 - weak buffer state reliant on Russia (Belarus 2.0) B. historical significance of Ukraine joining the old western cold war army (nato) would be devastating. Russia may have calculated this is the last chance to stop that or at least delay it for a generation C. finish the 2014 war. Get the land bridge to Crimea and unify the Russian speaking west and south western Ukrainian regions (imho this is goal number 1 since it give massive economic and political benefits.) There's probably loads of other goals, but they are the first to come to mind. Note: I'm not agreeing with any of them, just pointing out they are likely there and we would probably be aware of them.

ukraineally 5y ago

>What is the actual goal here? Can someone please explain to me why this is all happening? Well in Putin's own words, it seems obvious and clear. Ukraine's government are Nazis who are committing genocide over Russians in the new republics as Ukraine invaded the republics to reclaim the land. “As I said in my previous address, one cannot look at what is happening there without compassion. It was simply impossible to endure all this. It was necessary to stop this nightmare immediately – the genocide against the millions of people living there, who rely only on Russia, hope only on us. It was these aspirations, feelings, pain of people that were for us the main motive for deciding to recognise the people’s republics of Donbas.” “What I think is important to emphasise further. In order to achieve their own goals, the leading NATO countries support extreme nationalists and neo-Nazis in Ukraine in everything, who, in turn, will never forgive the Crimeans and Sevastopol residents for their free choice – reunification with Russia.” While all this nazi crap is absurd. We can also discount the possibility that Putin has been misled. He's ex-KGB. They were actively trained to be able to avoid exactly that. Instead this is obvious propaganda. The president of ukraine is jewish and target #1. Obviously not a nazi, this was more to mislead the russian duma and russian people. >What an absolute disgrace that we fight each other over BS orders. So many lives, especially of young people, lost for what? We have to figure out the 'they didnt go into iraq for wmds, they went there for oil'. It's all pure speculation. Go to: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Economy_of_Ukraine https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Economy_of_Ukraine and throw a dart. Whatever you hit, that's it. There is this: https://venturebeat.com/2022/02/24/ukraine-supplies-90-percent-of-us-semiconductor-grade-neon-what-it-means-to-chip-supply-chain/ https://venturebeat.com/2022/02/24/ukraine-supplies-90-perce... If you have been following... there's about a trillion $ of investment in new chip fabs. Everyone in the world is rushing to build chip fabs. Russia taking this neon production could give them the edge they need... To what end? The thing for me? there's nothing in ukraine that makes it good there. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Neon#Production https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Neon#Production It can basically be done anywhere. And what's even the point? Russia has basically been excluded from ever making any value from this.

redisman 5y ago
It sounds like any steel smelting operation can start capturing the fumes and pull out the neon. If it was lucrative others would start doing it

paxys 5y ago

The goal is to topple Ukraine's leadership and install a puppet who will be more aligned with Russia than the west (see Belarus as an example). An economically prosperous, stable, democratic, NATO-allied neighbor is Putin's worst nightmare.

VictorPath 5y ago
> The goal is to topple Ukraine's leadership and install a puppet who will be more aligned with So like the western-backed Euromaidan basically (without Victoria Nuland handing out cookies in Maidan square).
- PeterisP 5y ago
  I don't recall western missiles bombing Kyiv to support Euromaidan or invading tank columns to overthrow Yanukovych. Ukrainians are the only ones who have the moral right to choose what they will be aligned with. Perhaps you can coach them or bribe them with trade (or lack of trade), but a violent invasion is absolutely not like that, it's not even comparable to what happened during Euromaidan.
kilroy123 5y ago
This is correct. Putin has seen Ukraine turn more and more westward. Flirting and thinking about joining the EU and NATO. Which would mean "NATO" (US) troops right over the board and mere hours away form Moscow. Simply unacceptable to Putin.
- rootusrootus 5y ago
  Aren't there NATO countries right next to Ukraine that are just as close to Moscow already? Having Ukraine join NATO would be a bitter pill to swallow, perhaps, but it wouldn't bring NATO any closer than it is today. And madman though Putin may seem to be, he knows NATO isn't an offensive organization.
  - VictorPath 5y ago

credit_guy 5y ago

The actual goal of Putin is to do what Bismark did in 1860-70. Bismark used military force to achieve mind-blowing gains. Not only did Prussia conquer a number of territories from Denmark, Austria and France, but the other German states decided it's a good time to join the "Union", and so modern Germany was created. Before Bismark came to power, Prussia was the weakest of the 5 European Great Powers. When he left, it was by far the strongest. Putin's Russia right now is less than 150 million people. The rest of the former Soviet states have about as much together. If he conquers Ukraine, then most of them will decide it's time to get back to the "Federation", if they know what's good for them (the exception would be the three Baltic states which are NATO members). If Putin's gambit works out, he reconstitutes the Soviet Union (itself the reconstitution of the Tsarist Empire), and makes a country of close to 300 million people. For you and me the population is not a very relevant number, but for him it's the number of potential soldiers that he can use to bully Europe.

emilsedgh 5y ago
> for him it's the number of potential soldiers that he can use to bully Europe. And number of consumers. Want a big economy? You need a big population.
- lethologica 5y ago
  is that true with globalisation though?

InternetPerson 5y ago

I found this to be a compelling take on Russia's motivations for invading Ukraine: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=If61baWF4GE https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=If61baWF4GE The narrator argues that it's largely about fossil fuels.

pmorici 5y ago
I think this is the real answer though you won't ever hear them say it out loud. Gas was the reason they got involved in Syria too. Keeping Assad in power enabled them to stop a gas pipeline from being built from the middle east through Syria to the EU. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Qatar%E2%80%93Turkey_pipeline https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Qatar%E2%80%93Turkey_pipeline

stjohnswarts 5y ago

Obviously Putin is trying to put the USSR back together again because he's getting old and has to do something desperate to have any chance of obtaining his dream. If Ukraine were to become a prosperous democracy his fellow Russians might consider that they might have a better life under a self chosen government rather than a dictator like Putin because Ukraine shares a lot in common with Russians and many cultural/familial ties.

jltsiren 5y ago

The immediate goal is overthrowing the current regime in Ukraine. That much is obvious. Beyond that, nobody really knows. At a very high level, Putin wants to maintain a buffer zone between Russia and NATO. Russia doesn't have the resources to occupy and/or annex Ukraine, at least not in the long term. Putin must know that. He can't hope to install a stable puppet government, because Ukrainians would overthrow the puppet in a revolution. He must know that as well. Maybe Putin wants to cripple Ukraine permanently. Take Odesa, and Ukraine loses access to the sea. Take control of enough territory that it doesn't matter what NATO and the EU will do with the remaining Ukraine. Or maybe Putin has become an idealist instead of the pragmatist he was. Maybe his actions are now guided by beliefs rather than expected consequences. If Putin believes that the former glory of Russia must be restored by any means necessary, he may drive Russia into ruin by pursuing that.

pmorici 5y ago

My two cents; If you look past the false rhetoric meant to galvanize the population it is about the ability to maintain coercive influence over their neighbors for economic reasons. To do this they employ intimidation and if all else fails military force. Russia is run like a mob crime family where the oligarchs appeal to Putin to solve their business/economic issues using the power of the state and they presumably give him a cut of the profits which is where his reportedly vast secret wealth comes from. Ukraine becoming closer to the EU economically over the past 10 years is what this is ultimately about. People saying this is mostly about NATO expansion are missing the real issue. NATO aspirations are symptom not the cause of the dispute. If a country is in NATO it limits the means Russia has to coerce them. ie: it takes military intervention off the table since they would not be picking a fight with only one country but the alliance.

tguvot 5y ago

Supposedly this book is kinda been Putin's manual and author is his guru https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Foundations_of_Geopolitics https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Foundations_of_Geopolitics . If you will skim through article, it's kinda becomes more clear. Opinion expressed there with regards to Ukraine are shared by many Russians, based on what I observed.

s1artibartfast 5y ago

You have to break it down by the parties involved: Russia, NATO, and Ukraine. 1) Russia. Russian power is waning, and at the same time Ukraine-NATO integration is approaching the point of irreversibility. Russia sees the potential for a NATO armed Ukraine with US tropps, missiles, and possibly nukes 5 minutes from Moscow as an unacceptable security risk. From the Russian perspective the window to stop Ukraine is closing, and they have to act before NATO armaments has made Ukraine is too strong, and Russia is too weak. 2) NATO. NATO and the US would like to have the additional leverage over Russia provided by bases in Ukraine in the long term. Each additional country in NATO adds to it's strength, and removes a potential threat in the future. NATO wont give Ukraine full membership today, because it does not have full control of it's territory and widespread corruption within Ukraine. NATO, is willing to provide a slow path to membership because it is a Win-win situation. If Russia doesn't act, NATO slowly gets more leverage over Russia (NATO win). If Russia invades Ukraine, Russian forces, economy, and relations are damaged (another NATO win). 3) Ukraine. Essentially stuck in the middle, with no good options. They can grow closer to Russia or the EU, and each has downsides. Russia is a waning power and offers less economically. EU is more prosperous but they must join a military alliance against Russia. If they ever get full NATO membership, the Russian threat is greatly reduced, but NATO application is an extremely long process during which the threat is greatly increased.

merek 5y ago
An insightful summary. Thank you!

tim333 5y ago

My take - you've got two models of running the world. a) The old one of Empires - Russia controls Ukraine, Belarus etc. It's threatened by Ukraine moving to the west. b) The current one where countries are independent democracies with governments chosen by the people. Putin's been reading too many history books about a) The west has to go with b) - we can't really say to the Ukranians you'll never be able to join the EU/nato in spite of your people wanting to because you are property of the Russian empire. Putin needs to get with the times really.