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So, this seems to be now as I suspected a massive blunder on the side of Putin, whatever his motivations, the US has really played well here, comparable to how

• cletus 5y ago
  • jamespwilliams 5y ago
    I don’t read anything celebratory in GP’s comment. And: > which is 100% his fault with no justification despite any provocation is at odds with your overall argument.
  • dav_Oz 5y ago
    Don't get me wrong. This is just a geopolitical assessment. I am not taking sides, here. I am not for any war aggression whatsoever. I'm just trying to see a broader picture in the fog of brutal war, here. Like the Yemen war being a proxy for an Iran-Saudi conflict, on the humanitarian side it is just horrible.
  • tedivm 5y ago
    The US has done a lot of horrible things, but this is an obvious case of made up pretexts. Russia knows we weren't letting Ukraine into NATO anytime soon (we would have already), and outside of that we've been playing pretty nicely with Russia these days. This is just imperialism.
    • voisin 5y ago
      I fully agree. > we've been playing pretty nicely with Russia these days Last President was quite the fan if I recall.
      • ceejayoz 5y ago
        Frankly, I wonder if the Ukraine plans were laid with the assumption of a second Trump term, and they decided to just go ahead anyways. The US response seems likely to have been... very different if he was still in power.
        • chernevik 5y ago
          Nah, it was Trump who started sending Javelins in 2018. Also under whom the US military smashed a column of Russian mercenaries in Syria, killing 90 of them. Trump flattered Putin publicly, but his policies were never sympathetic to Russia.
          • ceejayoz 5y ago
            > Nah, it was Trump who started sending Javelins in 2018. Ooof. That's an... interesting twist on the facts. https://www.cnbc.com/2019/10/12/i-would-like-you-to-do-us-a-favor-the-30-minute-phone-call-that-changed-trumps-presidency.html https://www.cnbc.com/2019/10/12/i-would-like-you-to-do-us-a-... "Zelenskiy chatted about how he wanted to 'drain the swamp' in Kyiv and how he wished the European Union would provide more financial support. He told Trump that Ukraine was ready to buy more Javelin anti-tank missiles from the United States. The next 10 words that came out of Trump’s mouth — 'I would like you to do us a favor, though' — are what triggered the House impeachment inquiry that has imperiled his presidency." https://www.businessinsider.com/republicans-leaving-out-key-detail-trump-javelin-sale-to-ukraine-2019-11 https://www.businessinsider.com/republicans-leaving-out-key-... "At the time, Trump had placed roughly $400 million of congressionally-approved security assistance to Ukraine on hold, and the president is accused of dangling the aid over Zelensky as part of a broad scheme to pressure him into launching the investigations. The aid was ultimately released on September 11, less than a week after three House committees launched investigations into his administration's efforts to pressure Ukraine to help his reelection campaign." As for the mercenary incident, Americans came under attack by Syrian forces that included Russians. It was by no means a planned op. https://www.nytimes.com/2018/05/24/world/middleeast/american-commandos-russian-mercenaries-syria.html https://www.nytimes.com/2018/05/24/world/middleeast/american...
    • qqtt 5y ago
      George Bush was actively campaigning for both Ukraine and Georgia to join NATO at the 2008 Bucharest summit in April, likely a direct link to the subsequent invasion of Georgia which occurred immediately after in August. USA relations with Russia have in general been pretty schizophrenic. Minor sanctions after the Georgia occupation, "Reset button" politics by the Obama administration, larger scale sanctions after the Ukraine Crimea occupation, Trump fighting additional sanctions. Let's not forget Biden caught flak for actually waiving sanctions on Russia before he flipped into his current role as strong man. https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/national-security/biden-comes-under-fire-congress-after-waiving-sanctions-russian-gas-n1267975 https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/national-security/biden-com...
      • ZanyProgrammer 5y ago
        George Bush hasn’t been President for 13 years. Regardless no one believed Ukraine was going to join NATO then, or since.
  • dragonwriter 5y ago
    > Antagonizing Russia (which the US did, to be clear) Only in the sense that “not abandoning Eastern Europe so that Putin can invade or intimidate with threat of invasion with no plausible check” constitutes “antagonizing”.
  • lalaland1125 5y ago
    How exactly do you think the US antagonized Russia?
    • School-Cotton 5y ago
      Presumably, they meant courting Ukraine for NATO membership. How would the US react if, for example, China were planning to station troops and equipment in Canada? (I’m not trying to justify Putin’s actions here; just trying to understand the perspective).
      • qqtt 5y ago
        We already know how the USA would react. See the behavior in South America, and the Cuban missile crisis, bay of pigs, etc.
      • lalaland1125 5y ago
        NATO members have been directly bordering Russia through Estonia and Latvia for literally 18 years at this point with no harm or even the threat of harm to Russia. NATO members, as stable democracies, have zero interest in going into war with a nuclear power like Russia. Even now at the peak of tensions, every NATO member has repeatedly publicly pledged that no NATO troops will be involved in conflict. The idea that Russia's invasion of Ukraine is Russia acting to protect itself is the height of silliness. The better explanation for this war is much simpler: Putin has traditionally received a bump in approval ratings after his prior wars and was desperate for another boost after a long and harsh two years dealing with COVID-19.
• empressplay 5y ago
  I'm not convinced Russia is in a hurry here. Also, they have much heavier weapons they can use but have not yet done so because they don't want to use them if they don't have to, especially if the idea is to unite Ukraine with Russia (vaporizing Ukrainian soldiers en masse for example would be a bad look in that case) With no troops coming to the aid of Ukraine, the Russians have the luxury of time.
  • lalaland1125 5y ago
    > With no troops coming to the aid of Ukraine, the Russians have the luxury of time. There are no troops coming to Ukraine, but arms are streaming across the Polish border from NATO countries. Not to mention lots of Ukraine citizens rapidly training as militias as we speak. The longer Putin waits, the more weapons Ukraine will have.
    • spydum 5y ago
      Makes you wonder if that was the point? Get everyone all stirred up about a half hearted invasion so they dump a bunch of currency and weapons into the country to prop up the Ukrainians, then send your real a-list players in to seize the goods. Free resupply and upgrades from all your friends! Now you can move on to the next target.
      • l33t2328 5y ago
        As the ruble crashes and protests go off daily...
      • throwaway821909 5y ago
        I'm not an expert but I can't imagine it's worth it for that, factoring in sanctions, increased militarisation of surrounding countries + potential spread of NATO, casualties, Russian equipment being destroyed, equipment that doesn't fit their ammo/can't be supported/etc., and the probability that many of these weapons don't get seized and instead are used against them for years by rebels (the west has even implied they will support this with more - and the weapons we have sent are suited to this and not hugely valuable).
• vmception 5y ago
  Its Germans that are going to be in the cold, taking the inconvenience and difficulty to help sanction Russia via Swift with all EU member states, and disrupt their ability to purchase gas from Russia. US is specifically avoiding anything that would cause economic distress to Americans, this is in the President’s speech, and it is because the party will decisively lose politically later this year if there is more distress. Big win for US intelligence for sure! Messing with the fossil fuel markets is definitely what is required, amongst other things.
  • scaramanga 5y ago
    Climate change already requires that. So this gives us an interesting flavour of how seriously they are taking our most important threat :)
  • bluepizza 5y ago
    Maybe the Germans shouldn't have relied on a corrupt kleptocracy for energy.
    • g8oz 5y ago
      Right, better to rely on Middle Eastern despots.
      • stjohnswarts 5y ago
        Has the Middle East been pointing missiles at Western Europe for 6 decades?
      • ant6n 5y ago
        Wait, Middle Eastern despots produce renewable energy?
      • vmception 5y ago
        False dilemma And the person you replied to oversimplified the outcome as well
• scaramanga 5y ago
  Yeah, I think it's important to not whipsaw between idealising and devaluing Russian military capability. To a large extent, even if they lose, they win (eg. as the article says, Ukraine may need to withdraw from defensive lines in the east to defend Kiev, in which case Russia could make a land-grab there). There will be contingencies for all sorts of different definitions of "win". And in another sense, even if they win, they lose, because in fighting as best they can, they expend capital and expose all their weaknesses to view. And even if they achieve absolutely maximal war aims, like capturing the entire country, they are likely to find themselves in a situation that they are pretty unprepared for. I think states go to war hoping to achieve the maximal goals, but most prepared to achieve some subset of them before time, money, political support runs out.