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Among the 10 largest economies in 2050, the US will be the only Western one. "Pretty much utterly dominant" is laughably ignorant.

pcwalton 5y ago
Here's the first Google result for [10 largest economies in 2050]: https://www.theceomagazine.com/business/competition/pwc-world-2050/ https://www.theceomagazine.com/business/competition/pwc-worl... We have (1) China; (2) India; (3) US; (4) Indonesia; (5) Brazil; (6) Russia; (7) Mexico; (8) Japan; (9) Germany; (10) UK. Leaving aside how likely it is that Russia will be #6 at this rate (not particularly likely), the US, Germany, and the UK are all undeniably part of the West. Brazil and Japan are allies of the US [1]. The US has friendly relations with India, Indonesia, and Mexico. So this claim seems untrue. [1]: https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Major_non-NATO_ally https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Major_non-NATO_ally
- nxmnxm99 5y ago
  1. Russia's economic growth has mirrored Germany, UK and has surpassed Brazil for nearly 2 decades despite a constant barrage of sanctions. But sure, Russia is the one who will flop 2. Brazil and Japan being allies do not make them Western states, much less NATO states. Saudi Arabia is technically an ally as well. India, our "ally", isn't denouncing Russia and has extreme anti-liberal Hindu nationalist political forces running the country. You think Brazil will go to war against China supporting the US? That's delusional. 3. Even according to this particular report, the US is the only Western/NATO country in the top 9 The fact you think this comment somehow disputed me is a joke. Western Europe/America's dominance over the last several hundred years has come to an end. The balance of power in the world has shifted back to the East. People on this comment thread are like Brits in the 30s - not the slightest clue the world they grew up in doesn't exist anymore. Americans aren't ready for a world which China (and subsequently, it's allies, like Russia, Iran, etc.) dominates.
  - pcwalton 5y ago
    You can say that, but you look at the chart of GDP per capita of Russia vs. the US since 2000: https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.PCAP.CD?end=2020&locations=RU-US&start=2000 https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.PCAP.CD?end=2020... Let's just say this does not paint a picture of Russia ascendant vs. the West. In any event, this is a case of moving the goalposts. The claim that the US is predicted to be the only Western state in the top 10 economies is still untrue. Here's another list, with Germany, France, and the UK all projected to be in the top 10 in 2050: https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/2020-global-economic-forecast-2050/ https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/2020-global-economic-fore... Tellingly, this one sees Russia drop out of the top 10 entirely.
    - nxmnxm99 5y ago
- csomar 5y ago
  > Here's the first Google result for [10 largest economies in 2050]: https://www.theceomagazine.com/business/competition/pwc-worl https://www.theceomagazine.com/business/competition/pwc-worl... These numbers are PPP. With PPP, you already have China in number 1. PPP is very incorrect in comparing raw output. In my opinion, we are going to learn (the hard way) in the next few years that GDP is utter crap when comparing countries' power. By GDP, a populous country can have a very large GDP because it has too many people doing too much around. But all they can be doing is making coffee and painting roofs. They have no technology and no important military installations. These countries cannot negotiate well, especially if they are tourism-driven (ie: Indonesia) and thus are very vulnerable to sanctions. The only country that seems it can break off is China. All other countries will remain dependent on the West. Even more so when their economies grow larger. They are highly dependent and vulnerable.

pcwalton 5y ago

Here's the first Google result for [10 largest economies in 2050]: https://www.theceomagazine.com/business/competition/pwc-world-2050/ https://www.theceomagazine.com/business/competition/pwc-worl... We have (1) China; (2) India; (3) US; (4) Indonesia; (5) Brazil; (6) Russia; (7) Mexico; (8) Japan; (9) Germany; (10) UK. Leaving aside how likely it is that Russia will be #6 at this rate (not particularly likely), the US, Germany, and the UK are all undeniably part of the West. Brazil and Japan are allies of the US [1]. The US has friendly relations with India, Indonesia, and Mexico. So this claim seems untrue. [1]: https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Major_non-NATO_ally https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Major_non-NATO_ally

nxmnxm99 5y ago
1. Russia's economic growth has mirrored Germany, UK and has surpassed Brazil for nearly 2 decades despite a constant barrage of sanctions. But sure, Russia is the one who will flop 2. Brazil and Japan being allies do not make them Western states, much less NATO states. Saudi Arabia is technically an ally as well. India, our "ally", isn't denouncing Russia and has extreme anti-liberal Hindu nationalist political forces running the country. You think Brazil will go to war against China supporting the US? That's delusional. 3. Even according to this particular report, the US is the only Western/NATO country in the top 9 The fact you think this comment somehow disputed me is a joke. Western Europe/America's dominance over the last several hundred years has come to an end. The balance of power in the world has shifted back to the East. People on this comment thread are like Brits in the 30s - not the slightest clue the world they grew up in doesn't exist anymore. Americans aren't ready for a world which China (and subsequently, it's allies, like Russia, Iran, etc.) dominates.
- pcwalton 5y ago
  You can say that, but you look at the chart of GDP per capita of Russia vs. the US since 2000: https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.PCAP.CD?end=2020&locations=RU-US&start=2000 https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.PCAP.CD?end=2020... Let's just say this does not paint a picture of Russia ascendant vs. the West. In any event, this is a case of moving the goalposts. The claim that the US is predicted to be the only Western state in the top 10 economies is still untrue. Here's another list, with Germany, France, and the UK all projected to be in the top 10 in 2050: https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/2020-global-economic-forecast-2050/ https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/2020-global-economic-fore... Tellingly, this one sees Russia drop out of the top 10 entirely.
  - nxmnxm99 5y ago
csomar 5y ago
> Here's the first Google result for [10 largest economies in 2050]: https://www.theceomagazine.com/business/competition/pwc-worl https://www.theceomagazine.com/business/competition/pwc-worl... These numbers are PPP. With PPP, you already have China in number 1. PPP is very incorrect in comparing raw output. In my opinion, we are going to learn (the hard way) in the next few years that GDP is utter crap when comparing countries' power. By GDP, a populous country can have a very large GDP because it has too many people doing too much around. But all they can be doing is making coffee and painting roofs. They have no technology and no important military installations. These countries cannot negotiate well, especially if they are tourism-driven (ie: Indonesia) and thus are very vulnerable to sanctions. The only country that seems it can break off is China. All other countries will remain dependent on the West. Even more so when their economies grow larger. They are highly dependent and vulnerable.