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My armchair analysis: Losing SWIFT access is bad but it's definitely not a death knell (estimated to cause around 5% GDP contraction initially but they could p
by from 5y ago
My armchair analysis:
Losing SWIFT access is bad but it's definitely not a death knell (estimated to cause around 5% GDP contraction initially but they could probably get by with the alternatives). The central bank thing seems much worse because an 80% collapse in the ruble would result in lots of angry Russians who had their savings wiped out. I read that Russia has a lot of its debt denominated in rubles so I guess it would be beneficial in that regard. Seems like Russia did not really prepare for this part or maybe I'm missing something.
- lstodd 5y agoSWIFT doesn't matter that much; the other financial stuff either. The big deal is the loss of high or medium tech supplies for the foreseable future. You might not realise how the whole of Russia runs entirely on import of those. China, even if they wanted to, can not replace that. If Putin doesn't end up hanging on some random light pole in next few days, RU will collapse.
- from 5y agoDoesn't it just mean they'll pay extra (for the cost of evasion)? Apartheid South Africa still got oil when it was sanctioned, they just had to pay Marc Rich a 10% premium. Of course that's not great, especially when your currency and everything is collapsing, but still.
- lstodd 5y agoIDK about what SA had to offer back back then. Diamonds? Gold? Thing is, Russia lived all those years on gas and oil export mainly. Which isn't exactly a great proposition nowadays.