4 ms·

Hard to see them losing a ground war to take the territory with such numerical superiority but it's been done before in Israel. Even if they lose the ground wa

Hard to see them losing a ground war to take the territory with such numerical superiority but it's been done before in Israel. Even if they lose the ground war initially a long term insurgency will develop and Russia will have trouble swallowing it.

HWR_14 5y ago
Do the Russians really have numerical superiority in the theater? I thought Ukraine had 250,000 troops (which includes the conscripts) and Russia had 150,000 in the area.
- ch4s3 5y ago
  The Russians seem to only have air superiority and some advantages in armor. It's not clear they're going to win this.
  - redisman 5y ago
    If they buy more time they’re getting thousands of anti armor and anti air weapons very soon.
  - ncallaway 5y ago
    They haven’t even had unchallenged air superiority. Many Russian planes have been shot down (including two troop transports flying into contested airspace ?!), and Russian conveys have been successfully targeted and destroyed by Ukrainian air strikes. I think it’s fair to say that the Russians have air superiority, but most analysts expected them to have unchallenged air power by this point, and they definitely don’t have that
    - ch4s3 5y ago
      Yeah, they're really putting up an impressive fight. Ukrainians should feel really proud right now. I hope the incoming weapons make a difference, and I'm hoping we're getting them good intelligence.
      - dijonman2 5y ago
        My wife is Ukrainian, her family is currently safe. They’re a strong group of people. I’m proud of her, her country, and all they stand for. They know what true suffering is, having lived through multiple disgusting periods of abuse. We’re chatting here on HN from the safety of our chairs pontificating and pretending to be smarter than we are and they’re out there fighting for their lives. I hope Americans take notice and realize how crucial freedom is, and what it really takes to defend it.
        psyc 5y ago
        Freedom? Or sovereignty? Because I bet Americans would die for sovereignty. But we take liberty so much for granted that we continually debate trading it to boost all manner of hypothetical social utilitarian metrics.
        ch4s3 5y ago
        Yeah, for sure it’s easy to talk thousands of miles away. I really want them to succeed and I’m looking for ways I can help. At the very least I’m trying to be a public voice in support of military aid, and cheering them on in general.
ergocoder 5y ago
Insurgency can be easily handled if you don't have to consider the humane aspect. Saddam handled insurgency pretty effectively.
- pcwalton 5y ago
  The Soviet Union didn't, in Afghanistan.
brap 5y ago
The Israelis knew that if the Arab armies, which greatly outnumbered them, won and conquered the land, then the holocaust would pale in comparison. They had nowhere to go, they had to fight. The Ukranians are not in the same place (the Russians will not slaughter them), but they are definitely fighting for their home, and they also have nowhere to go. Fear is a very powerful motivator. Now in contrast, imagine what the Russian soldiers are thinking. Forced to kill people so similar to them. They don’t even want to be there. I don’t think it’s unlikely that Russia will lose this one in the long term.
- hdjjhhvvhga 5y ago
  > The Ukranians are not in the same place (the Russians will not slaughter them) In other circumstances, I'd agree with you. But everybody is wondering what Putin's options are? His Blitzkrieg didn't work at all, he tried several times and failed. What is happening now is a regular war on several fronts with civilian casualties. So what is going to happen if months pass and Ukraine is still fighting? Will he be able to swallow it? Many people are afraid he is too megalomaniac to do that and when pressed can start being more brutal than he is now. He is regarded as a war criminal already, what else does he have to lose? Those who listen to Russian propaganda will believe all he says anyway; the rest can be kept in order by an extended police state.

HWR_14 5y ago

Do the Russians really have numerical superiority in the theater? I thought Ukraine had 250,000 troops (which includes the conscripts) and Russia had 150,000 in the area.

ch4s3 5y ago
The Russians seem to only have air superiority and some advantages in armor. It's not clear they're going to win this.
- redisman 5y ago
  If they buy more time they’re getting thousands of anti armor and anti air weapons very soon.
- ncallaway 5y ago
  They haven’t even had unchallenged air superiority. Many Russian planes have been shot down (including two troop transports flying into contested airspace ?!), and Russian conveys have been successfully targeted and destroyed by Ukrainian air strikes. I think it’s fair to say that the Russians have air superiority, but most analysts expected them to have unchallenged air power by this point, and they definitely don’t have that
  - ch4s3 5y ago
    Yeah, they're really putting up an impressive fight. Ukrainians should feel really proud right now. I hope the incoming weapons make a difference, and I'm hoping we're getting them good intelligence.
    - dijonman2 5y ago
      My wife is Ukrainian, her family is currently safe. They’re a strong group of people. I’m proud of her, her country, and all they stand for. They know what true suffering is, having lived through multiple disgusting periods of abuse. We’re chatting here on HN from the safety of our chairs pontificating and pretending to be smarter than we are and they’re out there fighting for their lives. I hope Americans take notice and realize how crucial freedom is, and what it really takes to defend it.
      - psyc 5y ago
        Freedom? Or sovereignty? Because I bet Americans would die for sovereignty. But we take liberty so much for granted that we continually debate trading it to boost all manner of hypothetical social utilitarian metrics.
      - ch4s3 5y ago
        Yeah, for sure it’s easy to talk thousands of miles away. I really want them to succeed and I’m looking for ways I can help. At the very least I’m trying to be a public voice in support of military aid, and cheering them on in general.

ergocoder 5y ago

Insurgency can be easily handled if you don't have to consider the humane aspect. Saddam handled insurgency pretty effectively.

pcwalton 5y ago
The Soviet Union didn't, in Afghanistan.

brap 5y ago

The Israelis knew that if the Arab armies, which greatly outnumbered them, won and conquered the land, then the holocaust would pale in comparison. They had nowhere to go, they had to fight. The Ukranians are not in the same place (the Russians will not slaughter them), but they are definitely fighting for their home, and they also have nowhere to go. Fear is a very powerful motivator. Now in contrast, imagine what the Russian soldiers are thinking. Forced to kill people so similar to them. They don’t even want to be there. I don’t think it’s unlikely that Russia will lose this one in the long term.

hdjjhhvvhga 5y ago
> The Ukranians are not in the same place (the Russians will not slaughter them) In other circumstances, I'd agree with you. But everybody is wondering what Putin's options are? His Blitzkrieg didn't work at all, he tried several times and failed. What is happening now is a regular war on several fronts with civilian casualties. So what is going to happen if months pass and Ukraine is still fighting? Will he be able to swallow it? Many people are afraid he is too megalomaniac to do that and when pressed can start being more brutal than he is now. He is regarded as a war criminal already, what else does he have to lose? Those who listen to Russian propaganda will believe all he says anyway; the rest can be kept in order by an extended police state.