4 ms·

Russia is not self-sufficient. They require Germany, Finland, and China to keep sending them resources. It is a matter of time before they are simply incapable

Russia is not self-sufficient. They require Germany, Finland, and China to keep sending them resources. It is a matter of time before they are simply incapable of continuing the war. Simply from a resource depletion point of view. Unfortunately, this desperation will not open up diplomacy, it will likely be at the cost of the people. They are not in a situation to take on such a large military force if they attack EU or NATO. The point of these damaging sanctions is to not need war ever again in the future. If Russia, a nuclear power, cannot take Ukraine and cannot weather the sanctions toward success. It will tell the entire world that war is not needed anymore. That is a thing of the past for humanity. Additionally, there's some very unusual resistance to Russian troops. It was Spetsnaz blue berets who airborne dropped to take this airport: https://news.yahoo.com/russian-forces-attack-airport-outside-160018578.html https://news.yahoo.com/russian-forces-attack-airport-outside... But were routed so quickly? The probability that normal Ukrainian troops could do this is quite low. The probability that many other countries have their special forces operating in Ukraine is 100%. Obviously nobody will admit to this. The Russians probably don't realize this and is suffering these massive casualties because of it.

polotics 5y ago
Nope. Just the kit has become easier and easier to use. As a 12 year old I was quite surprised I could handle a MILAN missile simulator and just hit almost all slow moving targets. The instructor was less surprised. I can only imagine the current software has gotten so good that most monkey could down most Tupolevs...
baq 5y ago
likely but it's an open secret at this point that nato is non-reciprocally sharing intel with ukraine, this is completely unprecendted. look at intelligence aircraft signalling their presence on ads-b, including forte11/12 drones in the black sea - ukrainians are getting data from them, no other explanation for their effectiveness - they seem to be aware of every move of russian forces, every inbound airstrike, etc.
- ukraineally 5y ago
  >likely but it's an open secret at this point that nato is non-reciprocally sharing intel with ukraine, this is completely unprecendted. look at intelligence aircraft signalling their presence on ads-b, including forte11/12 drones in the black sea - ukrainians are getting data from them, no other explanation for their effectiveness - they seem to be aware of every move of russian forces, every inbound airstrike, etc. Oh for sure. so many awacs and global hawks in the air. This 'ghost of kyiv' ace without question had downlink or at least specific real time intel to know exactly how to put himself on their 6. Ironically, the russian media denies the ghost of kyiv exists. says the footage is all DCS. Frankly it's impossible given so many different points of view. The best argument they can really say is that its more than 1 pilot. But the first reality of nato intel is far more plausible.
hungrygs 5y ago
The speculation is that the CIA has stealth drones that are hitting key Russian targets at night. There is also incredible intel filtering down to Ukrainian command and control. Ukrainian special forces now behind enemy lines are likely doing severe damage to supply lines, guided with excellent instructions. Supposed video of one: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tM1PlldjfHs https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tM1PlldjfHs
- redisman 5y ago
  They also reportedly destroyed every rail line leading to Moscow which is very impressive given that they’re surrounded
  - gruez 5y ago
    Source? Are we talking about rail lines in ukraine that lead to moscow, or rail lines around moscow?
    - redisman 5y ago
      In Ukraine. I just saw it here : https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Portal:Current_events https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Portal:Current_events
- Danieru 5y ago
  Russia disinformation isn't worth the bits it's proc generated with. You shouldn't be repeating it. "Magic CIA Drones" is stealing the credit from self sacrificing self defense malitia.
  - whatshisface 5y ago
    The CIA dronestrikes sounds made-up, but a US combat surveillance aircraft had its transponder on and was publicly announcing its flight path as it patrolled south of Crimea.
    - 5y ago
EnKopVand 5y ago
> Additionally, there's some very unusual resistance to Russian troops. One or the reasons the Blitzkrieg worked so well for Nazi Germany was because many of their soldiers were experienced combat veterans from the international brigades during the Civil war in Spain. Ukrainian soldiers have been in active combat since 2014, and they are fighting to defend their own country. That being said, I don’t think any of us really have much of a clue as to what is going on, I just hope the best for Ukraine.
kikimora 5y ago
I don’t find the level of resistance to be unusual. Ukraine have been at war since 2014, many people know how to fight and ready to fight. They have good reason to fight as well. On top of that they have good equipment provided by USA/NATO. They are opposing an enemy making frontal attacks with tanks, with little support from the air and who does not use precise weapons. This is exactly the target that Ukrainian army can hit really hard. What is much more fascinating is how weak Russia is. I long suspected that corrupt state like Russia cannot produce modern weapons at scale. Instead it produces a few items and tons and tons of propaganda. Ukraine has outdated aircrafts, Russia on paper has last gen aircrafts. Yet Russia didn’t get air superiority, the likely reason it simply does not have enough precise missiles to destroy Ukraine air defense and does not have enough modern aircrafts either. I would not be surprised to find out that today’s Russia tactics is the same as it was in Afghanistan almost 40 years ago. It is severely outdated but Russia has no other choice because it cannot produce modern weapons.

polotics 5y ago

Nope. Just the kit has become easier and easier to use. As a 12 year old I was quite surprised I could handle a MILAN missile simulator and just hit almost all slow moving targets. The instructor was less surprised. I can only imagine the current software has gotten so good that most monkey could down most Tupolevs...

baq 5y ago

likely but it's an open secret at this point that nato is non-reciprocally sharing intel with ukraine, this is completely unprecendted. look at intelligence aircraft signalling their presence on ads-b, including forte11/12 drones in the black sea - ukrainians are getting data from them, no other explanation for their effectiveness - they seem to be aware of every move of russian forces, every inbound airstrike, etc.

ukraineally 5y ago
>likely but it's an open secret at this point that nato is non-reciprocally sharing intel with ukraine, this is completely unprecendted. look at intelligence aircraft signalling their presence on ads-b, including forte11/12 drones in the black sea - ukrainians are getting data from them, no other explanation for their effectiveness - they seem to be aware of every move of russian forces, every inbound airstrike, etc. Oh for sure. so many awacs and global hawks in the air. This 'ghost of kyiv' ace without question had downlink or at least specific real time intel to know exactly how to put himself on their 6. Ironically, the russian media denies the ghost of kyiv exists. says the footage is all DCS. Frankly it's impossible given so many different points of view. The best argument they can really say is that its more than 1 pilot. But the first reality of nato intel is far more plausible.

hungrygs 5y ago

The speculation is that the CIA has stealth drones that are hitting key Russian targets at night. There is also incredible intel filtering down to Ukrainian command and control. Ukrainian special forces now behind enemy lines are likely doing severe damage to supply lines, guided with excellent instructions. Supposed video of one: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tM1PlldjfHs https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tM1PlldjfHs

redisman 5y ago
They also reportedly destroyed every rail line leading to Moscow which is very impressive given that they’re surrounded
- gruez 5y ago
  Source? Are we talking about rail lines in ukraine that lead to moscow, or rail lines around moscow?
  - redisman 5y ago
    In Ukraine. I just saw it here : https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Portal:Current_events https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Portal:Current_events
Danieru 5y ago
Russia disinformation isn't worth the bits it's proc generated with. You shouldn't be repeating it. "Magic CIA Drones" is stealing the credit from self sacrificing self defense malitia.
- whatshisface 5y ago
  The CIA dronestrikes sounds made-up, but a US combat surveillance aircraft had its transponder on and was publicly announcing its flight path as it patrolled south of Crimea.
  - 5y ago

EnKopVand 5y ago

> Additionally, there's some very unusual resistance to Russian troops. One or the reasons the Blitzkrieg worked so well for Nazi Germany was because many of their soldiers were experienced combat veterans from the international brigades during the Civil war in Spain. Ukrainian soldiers have been in active combat since 2014, and they are fighting to defend their own country. That being said, I don’t think any of us really have much of a clue as to what is going on, I just hope the best for Ukraine.

kikimora 5y ago

I don’t find the level of resistance to be unusual. Ukraine have been at war since 2014, many people know how to fight and ready to fight. They have good reason to fight as well. On top of that they have good equipment provided by USA/NATO. They are opposing an enemy making frontal attacks with tanks, with little support from the air and who does not use precise weapons. This is exactly the target that Ukrainian army can hit really hard. What is much more fascinating is how weak Russia is. I long suspected that corrupt state like Russia cannot produce modern weapons at scale. Instead it produces a few items and tons and tons of propaganda. Ukraine has outdated aircrafts, Russia on paper has last gen aircrafts. Yet Russia didn’t get air superiority, the likely reason it simply does not have enough precise missiles to destroy Ukraine air defense and does not have enough modern aircrafts either. I would not be surprised to find out that today’s Russia tactics is the same as it was in Afghanistan almost 40 years ago. It is severely outdated but Russia has no other choice because it cannot produce modern weapons.