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We'll see. I'm not convinced that he's quite the buffoon he's being portrayed as lately. This is a shrewd ex-KGB officer who's held onto power for more than t

by na85 5y ago

We'll see. I'm not convinced that he's quite the buffoon he's being portrayed as lately. This is a shrewd ex-KGB officer who's held onto power for more than two decades.

rootusrootus 5y ago
Is he really being portrayed as a buffoon, though? In my experience most people seem to respect that he is quite good at playing the power game. Lately he's definitely being portrayed as evil, for sure. But I wonder if maybe he miscalculated how this war would play out. Even skilled operators f*ck it up once in a while.
- chrisseaton 5y ago
  > Is he really being portrayed as a buffoon, though? Yeah - for example the Economist cover on the 19th. https://www.economist.com/weeklyedition/2022-02-19 https://www.economist.com/weeklyedition/2022-02-19
  - rosndo 5y ago
    Putin can have painted himself into a corner without necessarily being a buffoon.
- losteric 5y ago
  He's getting old. This is Putin's last opportunity to cement himself into history. Putin still enjoys tremendous domestic support. He has no effective opposition. Putin wants to claim Ukraine. Ukraine can't fight Russia alone. Will the West fight harder for Ukraine than Russia/Putin? What happens if Ukraine's leaders are assassinated? Stronger sanctions against Russia? Europe still depends on Russian fossil fuel, as do China and others, so leverage is limited. Strangling European energy supply remains a weapon at Putin's disposal. Economic MAD, sure, but who's going to back down first? The autocrat, or the union of democratic states?
  - simonh 5y ago
    Germany is much better connected to the gas pipelines of neighbouring European countries than it used to be, and Europe has extensive strategic reserves. The US does too and might be willing to share some of them. We’re also coming out of winter. This is going to be hard, the cost will be heavy, but much, much heavier on Russia. But we’re at war, whether we like it or not, and we have to do this.
    - deleted 5y ago
      [deleted]
  - toyg 5y ago
    > Putin still enjoys tremendous domestic support. But does he really? The economic situation is not great, the Southern Ukraine border has been a mess for almost a decade, COVID wasn't exactly a success (their vaccine didn't perform as well as expected)... There has been a lot of grumbling over the last couple of years. In fact, I think he counts on this conflict to shore up his internal support significantly. > He has no effective opposition. Well, when he did, he made sure to kill or jail them, so that's not really an indicator I'd rely on. I agree that there is a good chance things might not be as bad as they look for him, though. It's easy for us to talk tough in February, with Springtime on the doorstep and enough gas to last several months; the real challenge will be September / October.
megous 5y ago
If he fails militarily, which he still might, the result of all this commotion will be that Ukraine will have much tighter ties to EU, NATO will be strengtened in the east, and Russia's economy will tank, for no geopolitical benefit.
regnull 5y ago
He can only suffer a major failure once. Being an authoritarian is a tough job. Sharks are always circling.
- ajb 5y ago
  Unfortunately ability to start in power isn't all that linked to delivering good results to the public. There are examples where a dictator stayed in power for a long time after crashing the economy. Mugabe, for instance.
  - jamiek88 5y ago
    He has to keep his fellow oligarchs happy not joe public.
  - LadyCailin 5y ago
    I definitely am not an authority here, but I can’t imagine a top 10 GDPPPP country is particularly comparable to Zimbabwe.
  - from 5y ago
    Erdogan is probably a better analogy but we'll see how long that lasts.
SllX 5y ago
I have insufficient data on Putin to even try in good faith to even try and analyze him, past and present. But I did just finish catching up to current on the Revolutions podcast which covers 10 political upheavals defined in the podcaster’s terms as Revolutions under a broad label and what’s amazing to me is that any of the Revolutions that tended to center around strongmen also tended to outstay their welcome and any of the Revolutionary Big Cheeses that lived to old age tended to lose touch with their own inner circle. The monarchs or whoever was being overthrown were also not immune to this: if they were popular, it was often because people didn’t actually know them very well and they tended to lose popularity quickly when they made the worse blunders of their lives. So, just a perspective, and maybe some of this is applicable to Putin, but again, I’m not in good faith going to try to make that call but leave it to those who maybe can.
slim109ya 5y ago
Exactly. This situation was highly thought out and I'm sure he has at least one ace up his sleeve. Most likely in the form of controling natural resources to europe.

by na85 5y ago

We'll see. I'm not convinced that he's quite the buffoon he's being portrayed as lately. This is a shrewd ex-KGB officer who's held onto power for more than two decades.

rootusrootus 5y ago

Is he really being portrayed as a buffoon, though? In my experience most people seem to respect that he is quite good at playing the power game. Lately he's definitely being portrayed as evil, for sure. But I wonder if maybe he miscalculated how this war would play out. Even skilled operators f*ck it up once in a while.

chrisseaton 5y ago
> Is he really being portrayed as a buffoon, though? Yeah - for example the Economist cover on the 19th. https://www.economist.com/weeklyedition/2022-02-19 https://www.economist.com/weeklyedition/2022-02-19
- rosndo 5y ago
  Putin can have painted himself into a corner without necessarily being a buffoon.
losteric 5y ago
He's getting old. This is Putin's last opportunity to cement himself into history. Putin still enjoys tremendous domestic support. He has no effective opposition. Putin wants to claim Ukraine. Ukraine can't fight Russia alone. Will the West fight harder for Ukraine than Russia/Putin? What happens if Ukraine's leaders are assassinated? Stronger sanctions against Russia? Europe still depends on Russian fossil fuel, as do China and others, so leverage is limited. Strangling European energy supply remains a weapon at Putin's disposal. Economic MAD, sure, but who's going to back down first? The autocrat, or the union of democratic states?
- simonh 5y ago
  Germany is much better connected to the gas pipelines of neighbouring European countries than it used to be, and Europe has extensive strategic reserves. The US does too and might be willing to share some of them. We’re also coming out of winter. This is going to be hard, the cost will be heavy, but much, much heavier on Russia. But we’re at war, whether we like it or not, and we have to do this.
  - deleted 5y ago
    [deleted]
- toyg 5y ago
  > Putin still enjoys tremendous domestic support. But does he really? The economic situation is not great, the Southern Ukraine border has been a mess for almost a decade, COVID wasn't exactly a success (their vaccine didn't perform as well as expected)... There has been a lot of grumbling over the last couple of years. In fact, I think he counts on this conflict to shore up his internal support significantly. > He has no effective opposition. Well, when he did, he made sure to kill or jail them, so that's not really an indicator I'd rely on. I agree that there is a good chance things might not be as bad as they look for him, though. It's easy for us to talk tough in February, with Springtime on the doorstep and enough gas to last several months; the real challenge will be September / October.

megous 5y ago

If he fails militarily, which he still might, the result of all this commotion will be that Ukraine will have much tighter ties to EU, NATO will be strengtened in the east, and Russia's economy will tank, for no geopolitical benefit.

regnull 5y ago

He can only suffer a major failure once. Being an authoritarian is a tough job. Sharks are always circling.

ajb 5y ago
Unfortunately ability to start in power isn't all that linked to delivering good results to the public. There are examples where a dictator stayed in power for a long time after crashing the economy. Mugabe, for instance.
- jamiek88 5y ago
  He has to keep his fellow oligarchs happy not joe public.
- LadyCailin 5y ago
  I definitely am not an authority here, but I can’t imagine a top 10 GDPPPP country is particularly comparable to Zimbabwe.
- from 5y ago
  Erdogan is probably a better analogy but we'll see how long that lasts.

SllX 5y ago

I have insufficient data on Putin to even try in good faith to even try and analyze him, past and present. But I did just finish catching up to current on the Revolutions podcast which covers 10 political upheavals defined in the podcaster’s terms as Revolutions under a broad label and what’s amazing to me is that any of the Revolutions that tended to center around strongmen also tended to outstay their welcome and any of the Revolutionary Big Cheeses that lived to old age tended to lose touch with their own inner circle. The monarchs or whoever was being overthrown were also not immune to this: if they were popular, it was often because people didn’t actually know them very well and they tended to lose popularity quickly when they made the worse blunders of their lives. So, just a perspective, and maybe some of this is applicable to Putin, but again, I’m not in good faith going to try to make that call but leave it to those who maybe can.

slim109ya 5y ago

Exactly. This situation was highly thought out and I'm sure he has at least one ace up his sleeve. Most likely in the form of controling natural resources to europe.