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Russia has previously stated that they would consider this an act of war [0]. Troubling. [0]: https://russiabusinesstoday.com/economy/russia-would-consider-cut

by quenix 5y ago

Russia has previously stated that they would consider this an act of war [0]. Troubling. [0]: https://russiabusinesstoday.com/economy/russia-would-consider-cutting-off-from-swift-as-act-of-war-medvedev/ https://russiabusinesstoday.com/economy/russia-would-conside...

redisman 5y ago
Russia had said a lot of things. If you take everything at face value you’ll simply be conquered.
Gatsky 5y ago
Invading Europe is unlikely to restore SWIFT access.
- danpalmer 5y ago
  And even if it did, SWIFT access is in large part a quick way to impose a lot of sanctions. It essentially limits imports/exports which could be done in other ways (and have been, E.g. Nordstream 2) but which would take a lot of time to do effectively.
- smegger001 5y ago
  But from the point of veiw of the russian leadership they have less to loose now. That said i think we should cut them off and give all the aid to Ukrain we can, the west is doing it a disservice after they voluntarily gave up their nuclear weapons on the condition that we protect them.
  - MauranKilom 5y ago
    > But from the point of veiw of the russian leadership they have less to loose now. They are paying a hefty price with every single day this situation goes on. The goal is to reach the point of "too painful to continue" as quickly as possible.
  - salawat 5y ago
    The Budapest Memorandum did not include a defense clause. >https://www.un.org/en/ga/search/view_doc.asp?symbol=A/49/765 https://www.un.org/en/ga/search/view_doc.asp?symbol=A/49/765
endymi0n 5y ago
Which they are entitled to — but effectively their alternative here would be retaliating against half the world. Which in a non-military way is effectively what the world wants, as it will hurt Russia just a bit more than everyone else on their own. And if they wage war on half the world, good luck to them.
- toyg 5y ago
  Good luck to all of us.
- nxmnxm99 5y ago
  - pcwalton 5y ago
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022_Russian_invasion_of_Ukraine#/media/File:International_reactions_to_the_2022_Russian_invasion_of_Ukraine.svg https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022_Russian_invasion_of_Ukrai... The blue area is not limited to Europe and the US.
  - aprdm 5y ago
    Kenya made a speech against Russia, I wouldn’t say África doesn’t care. So did Lebanese government which is in Asia. I would say the world is certainly watching and people in general don’t like war
    - nxmnxm99 5y ago
      Wow, a diplomat from Kenya made a speech therefore all of Africa cares. And they say Americans think the universe revolves around their orbit.
  - FredPret 5y ago
    > increasingly/rapidly less geopolitically formidable From utterly dominant economically and militarily to still being pretty much utterly dominant. Some decline.
deleted 5y ago
[deleted]
ceejayoz 5y ago
Russia has previously stated they'd guarantee Ukraine's independence and sovereignty. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Budapest_Memorandum_on_Security_Assurances https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Budapest_Memorandum_on_Securit... Dictators are liars, and accepting "I'll stop hitting you if you do X" from abusers only works in the short-term.
pcwalton 5y ago
What can Russia do? Putin lacks the ability to respond proportionately in a way that doesn't hurt Russia as much, or more, as it does NATO. Putin wants a "might makes right" world. Well, he's getting one, and he gets to live with the consequences.
- finnh 5y ago
  Cut off the supply of natural gas to Europe?
  - trulyme 5y ago
    It seems that Europe should make it a top priority to cut the supply of gas from Russia.
  - jahewson 5y ago
    They’d be sanctioning themselves.
ukraineally 5y ago
Russia is not self-sufficient. They require Germany, Finland, and China to keep sending them resources. It is a matter of time before they are simply incapable of continuing the war. Simply from a resource depletion point of view. Unfortunately, this desperation will not open up diplomacy, it will likely be at the cost of the people. They are not in a situation to take on such a large military force if they attack EU or NATO. The point of these damaging sanctions is to not need war ever again in the future. If Russia, a nuclear power, cannot take Ukraine and cannot weather the sanctions toward success. It will tell the entire world that war is not needed anymore. That is a thing of the past for humanity. Additionally, there's some very unusual resistance to Russian troops. It was Spetsnaz blue berets who airborne dropped to take this airport: https://news.yahoo.com/russian-forces-attack-airport-outside-160018578.html https://news.yahoo.com/russian-forces-attack-airport-outside... But were routed so quickly? The probability that normal Ukrainian troops could do this is quite low. The probability that many other countries have their special forces operating in Ukraine is 100%. Obviously nobody will admit to this. The Russians probably don't realize this and is suffering these massive casualties because of it.
- polotics 5y ago
  Nope. Just the kit has become easier and easier to use. As a 12 year old I was quite surprised I could handle a MILAN missile simulator and just hit almost all slow moving targets. The instructor was less surprised. I can only imagine the current software has gotten so good that most monkey could down most Tupolevs...
- baq 5y ago
  likely but it's an open secret at this point that nato is non-reciprocally sharing intel with ukraine, this is completely unprecendted. look at intelligence aircraft signalling their presence on ads-b, including forte11/12 drones in the black sea - ukrainians are getting data from them, no other explanation for their effectiveness - they seem to be aware of every move of russian forces, every inbound airstrike, etc.
  - ukraineally 5y ago
    >likely but it's an open secret at this point that nato is non-reciprocally sharing intel with ukraine, this is completely unprecendted. look at intelligence aircraft signalling their presence on ads-b, including forte11/12 drones in the black sea - ukrainians are getting data from them, no other explanation for their effectiveness - they seem to be aware of every move of russian forces, every inbound airstrike, etc. Oh for sure. so many awacs and global hawks in the air. This 'ghost of kyiv' ace without question had downlink or at least specific real time intel to know exactly how to put himself on their 6. Ironically, the russian media denies the ghost of kyiv exists. says the footage is all DCS. Frankly it's impossible given so many different points of view. The best argument they can really say is that its more than 1 pilot. But the first reality of nato intel is far more plausible.
vkou 5y ago
It can consider whatever it wants, but it's not exactly in a position to wage a second one. It seems that the outcome of this week is a full reprise of the Cold War, with the first and second world economies operating in a largely disjoint manner. The USSR didn't have access to SWIFT either, so it sounds like it'll have to suck it up.
amyjess 5y ago
Russia doesn't have the resources for it. Their soldiers in Ukraine have resorted to dressing as civilians to scrounge up food and trying to steal fuel for their tank from Ukrainian gas stations. Their soldiers aren't even properly trained, experienced soldiers: they're just 18-19-year-old conscripts fresh out of basic training. There are videos of Russian soldiers breaking down and crying in the middle of the street when Ukrainians make it clear they're not wanted here. There are reports that Russia had to resort to beatings and even deception to even get them to go to Ukraine; supposedly a few of them were put on a plane and told they were going to a training field for mock battle. I don't expect Russia to be able to be able to sustain a war on a second front against countries with even larger militaries and economies.
- MrRiddle 5y ago
  > Their soldiers in Ukraine have resorted to dressing as civilians to scrounge up food and trying to steal fuel for their tank from Ukrainian gas stations. Hahaha this is the most out of touch thing I read since the start of the war. You believe this? HAHHAAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA
op00to 5y ago
Russia stated a lot of things over the past week that were bold faced lies. They lose all credibility. Who cares what they say?
tim333 5y ago
Well it is really. We've effectively got a war between Russia and most the rest of the world. A bit unfortunate but there you go.

by quenix 5y ago

redisman 5y ago

Russia had said a lot of things. If you take everything at face value you’ll simply be conquered.

Gatsky 5y ago

Invading Europe is unlikely to restore SWIFT access.

danpalmer 5y ago
And even if it did, SWIFT access is in large part a quick way to impose a lot of sanctions. It essentially limits imports/exports which could be done in other ways (and have been, E.g. Nordstream 2) but which would take a lot of time to do effectively.
smegger001 5y ago
But from the point of veiw of the russian leadership they have less to loose now. That said i think we should cut them off and give all the aid to Ukrain we can, the west is doing it a disservice after they voluntarily gave up their nuclear weapons on the condition that we protect them.
- MauranKilom 5y ago
  > But from the point of veiw of the russian leadership they have less to loose now. They are paying a hefty price with every single day this situation goes on. The goal is to reach the point of "too painful to continue" as quickly as possible.
- salawat 5y ago
  The Budapest Memorandum did not include a defense clause. >https://www.un.org/en/ga/search/view_doc.asp?symbol=A/49/765 https://www.un.org/en/ga/search/view_doc.asp?symbol=A/49/765

endymi0n 5y ago

Which they are entitled to — but effectively their alternative here would be retaliating against half the world. Which in a non-military way is effectively what the world wants, as it will hurt Russia just a bit more than everyone else on their own. And if they wage war on half the world, good luck to them.

toyg 5y ago
Good luck to all of us.
nxmnxm99 5y ago
- pcwalton 5y ago
  https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022_Russian_invasion_of_Ukraine#/media/File:International_reactions_to_the_2022_Russian_invasion_of_Ukraine.svg https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022_Russian_invasion_of_Ukrai... The blue area is not limited to Europe and the US.
- aprdm 5y ago
  Kenya made a speech against Russia, I wouldn’t say África doesn’t care. So did Lebanese government which is in Asia. I would say the world is certainly watching and people in general don’t like war
  - nxmnxm99 5y ago
    Wow, a diplomat from Kenya made a speech therefore all of Africa cares. And they say Americans think the universe revolves around their orbit.
- FredPret 5y ago
  > increasingly/rapidly less geopolitically formidable From utterly dominant economically and militarily to still being pretty much utterly dominant. Some decline.

deleted 5y ago

[deleted]

ceejayoz 5y ago

Russia has previously stated they'd guarantee Ukraine's independence and sovereignty. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Budapest_Memorandum_on_Security_Assurances https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Budapest_Memorandum_on_Securit... Dictators are liars, and accepting "I'll stop hitting you if you do X" from abusers only works in the short-term.

pcwalton 5y ago

What can Russia do? Putin lacks the ability to respond proportionately in a way that doesn't hurt Russia as much, or more, as it does NATO. Putin wants a "might makes right" world. Well, he's getting one, and he gets to live with the consequences.

finnh 5y ago
Cut off the supply of natural gas to Europe?
- trulyme 5y ago
  It seems that Europe should make it a top priority to cut the supply of gas from Russia.
- jahewson 5y ago
  They’d be sanctioning themselves.

ukraineally 5y ago

Russia is not self-sufficient. They require Germany, Finland, and China to keep sending them resources. It is a matter of time before they are simply incapable of continuing the war. Simply from a resource depletion point of view. Unfortunately, this desperation will not open up diplomacy, it will likely be at the cost of the people. They are not in a situation to take on such a large military force if they attack EU or NATO. The point of these damaging sanctions is to not need war ever again in the future. If Russia, a nuclear power, cannot take Ukraine and cannot weather the sanctions toward success. It will tell the entire world that war is not needed anymore. That is a thing of the past for humanity. Additionally, there's some very unusual resistance to Russian troops. It was Spetsnaz blue berets who airborne dropped to take this airport: https://news.yahoo.com/russian-forces-attack-airport-outside-160018578.html https://news.yahoo.com/russian-forces-attack-airport-outside... But were routed so quickly? The probability that normal Ukrainian troops could do this is quite low. The probability that many other countries have their special forces operating in Ukraine is 100%. Obviously nobody will admit to this. The Russians probably don't realize this and is suffering these massive casualties because of it.

polotics 5y ago
Nope. Just the kit has become easier and easier to use. As a 12 year old I was quite surprised I could handle a MILAN missile simulator and just hit almost all slow moving targets. The instructor was less surprised. I can only imagine the current software has gotten so good that most monkey could down most Tupolevs...
baq 5y ago
likely but it's an open secret at this point that nato is non-reciprocally sharing intel with ukraine, this is completely unprecendted. look at intelligence aircraft signalling their presence on ads-b, including forte11/12 drones in the black sea - ukrainians are getting data from them, no other explanation for their effectiveness - they seem to be aware of every move of russian forces, every inbound airstrike, etc.
- ukraineally 5y ago
  >likely but it's an open secret at this point that nato is non-reciprocally sharing intel with ukraine, this is completely unprecendted. look at intelligence aircraft signalling their presence on ads-b, including forte11/12 drones in the black sea - ukrainians are getting data from them, no other explanation for their effectiveness - they seem to be aware of every move of russian forces, every inbound airstrike, etc. Oh for sure. so many awacs and global hawks in the air. This 'ghost of kyiv' ace without question had downlink or at least specific real time intel to know exactly how to put himself on their 6. Ironically, the russian media denies the ghost of kyiv exists. says the footage is all DCS. Frankly it's impossible given so many different points of view. The best argument they can really say is that its more than 1 pilot. But the first reality of nato intel is far more plausible.

vkou 5y ago

It can consider whatever it wants, but it's not exactly in a position to wage a second one. It seems that the outcome of this week is a full reprise of the Cold War, with the first and second world economies operating in a largely disjoint manner. The USSR didn't have access to SWIFT either, so it sounds like it'll have to suck it up.

amyjess 5y ago

Russia doesn't have the resources for it. Their soldiers in Ukraine have resorted to dressing as civilians to scrounge up food and trying to steal fuel for their tank from Ukrainian gas stations. Their soldiers aren't even properly trained, experienced soldiers: they're just 18-19-year-old conscripts fresh out of basic training. There are videos of Russian soldiers breaking down and crying in the middle of the street when Ukrainians make it clear they're not wanted here. There are reports that Russia had to resort to beatings and even deception to even get them to go to Ukraine; supposedly a few of them were put on a plane and told they were going to a training field for mock battle. I don't expect Russia to be able to be able to sustain a war on a second front against countries with even larger militaries and economies.

MrRiddle 5y ago
> Their soldiers in Ukraine have resorted to dressing as civilians to scrounge up food and trying to steal fuel for their tank from Ukrainian gas stations. Hahaha this is the most out of touch thing I read since the start of the war. You believe this? HAHHAAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA

op00to 5y ago

Russia stated a lot of things over the past week that were bold faced lies. They lose all credibility. Who cares what they say?

tim333 5y ago

Well it is really. We've effectively got a war between Russia and most the rest of the world. A bit unfortunate but there you go.