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100% Putin is the bad guy here. There's no justification for invasion. None. That being said, we need to look at how we got here, maybe what should've happened
by jmyeet 5y ago
100% Putin is the bad guy here. There's no justification for invasion. None.
That being said, we need to look at how we got here, maybe what should've happened instead and what can be done to hopefully defuse and resolve this situation.
First, dangling the carrot of NATO membership, which because with George W Bush's swansong in a NATO summit in Bucharest in 2008 (and hasn't been changed by any subsequent administration) was dangerous and deliberately antagonistic to Russia. This was compounded by successive waves of expansion after the collapse of the Soviet Union, the entity NATO was supposedly created to defend against.
Second, Zelensky seems out of his depth here (geopolitically) and should've realized this. The annexation of Crimea in 2014 should've raised the alarm bells here both that embracing to the West was dangerous and because of the threat of Russia unlikely to ever happen. This means another route needs to be paved.
Third, outright refusing to take NATO membership off the negotiating table by the US (which, as noted, was never going to happen) was downright irresponsible and clueless, particularly when the US would never put troops into Ukraine and directly get into a military conflict with Russia. That alone should prompt a less hardline approach.
This brings me to the substance of the article and a model that should've been pursued by the Ukrainian government. And that is one of neutrality, probably most similar to the Swiss model. This would include:
1. A consitutional amendment against joining any military alliance;
2. A consitutional amendment for military neutrality that might include, for example, not allowing passage by any foreign military without, say, the approval of both Russia and NATO;
3. National service, say 12 months.
4. A policy of building a defensive army. That means fixed military installations, particularly on entry points into Ukraine. It also means tactical rather than strategic weapons;
5. Equipping and training armed services in insurgency. Hardened communications, access to caches of small arms in the vent of invasion and access to weapons that have shown to be devastating against an occupying force (eg portable SAMs).
6. Exercises and planning for defending Ukraine against large outside military forces. The idea here isn't necessarily to win in such a conflict but to make the cost of victory and occupation so high as to deter it from happening.
You would probably need additional steps to protect legitimate Russian economic interests, most specifically pipelines of oil and gas to the EU and deepwater port access to the Black Sea.
As for disputed regions, you may need to adopt a model similar to, say, Nortern Ireland of joint control and semi-autonomy while still being with the borders of Ukraine.
- Denvercoder9 5y agoAn appeasement-style solution like this is predicated on the assumption that the expansion of NATO is the actual reason behind this war, and not just a convenient pretext. There's no consensus about that. Putin has a history of meddling in neighbouring states, and could use a distraction from domestic problems.
- xixixao 5y agoI doubt it. Even fully “neutral” Ukraine, if modern, democratic, prosperous, would have been extremely dangerous to any corrupt autocrat in Russia. This is appeasement approach that WWII should have taught us not to take. Russian official are literally complaining about weak West response. Instead the NATO membership should have been accelerated, with the path for Russia to enter it in the future. Even Putin mentioned he asked Clinton about it. But he is obviously the sticking point.
- jmyeet 5y agoThe problem with the appeasement argument is that we're not talking about 1939 Germany. We're talking about Russia, the country with the largest nuclear arsenal on EArth (yes, even larger than the US nuclear arsenal). The analogy isn't remotely similar or appropriate. Let me put it another way: what is the alternative? We're clearly not going to put boots on the ground. NATO does not want a member country directly on the Russian border, particularly a large border as Ukraine and Russia have. The US (and the rest of NATO for that matter) simply does not want to get dragged into a conflict on Russia's borders. That's it. The US would never accept a military alliance between Russia or China with Mexico and Canada that allows Russia or China to build military bases along the US border. So why should we be surprised that the "F** the USSR" military alliance may end up building bases on Russia's borders?
- pawelos 5y ago> NATO does not want a member country directly on the Russian border There are already two NATO countries directly on the Russian border. Four if you count Kaliningrad. Five if Finland joins. Edit: I’ve looked at the map and it turns out Norway also borders Russia, so +1 to all the calculations :)